The Arnold Palmer Invitational marks the second leg of the Florida Swing as a field of 120 take to Bay Hill’s picturesque fairways starting Friday (AEDT).
Bryson DeChambeau won’t be back to defend his title after withdrawing earlier in the week, leaving Jon Rahm atop the market at single figures, followed closely by Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler.
History was made last week at The Honda Classic as Austrian Sepp Straka became the fourth first-time winner over the last five tournaments, meaning we could be in for a similar surprise on what is arguably one of the toughest scoring courses on the calendar.
With plenty of stars stepping out, find out who we’re backing at Arnie’s Place below.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bet
Adam Scott @ $29.00
Australians have fared extremely well at Bay Hill over the last 15 years.
To refresh your memory, Rod Pampling won here back in 2006, before Jason Day and Marc Leishman did the double in 2016 and 2017.
Adam Scott finds himself in the mid-tier of betting this week, but he can definitely add his name to that list based on what we’ve seen from him recently.
The 41-year-old improved on a T38 at TPC Scottsdale last month to finish in a tie for fourth at Riviera two weeks ago, carding a stunning second-round 65 on his way to ranking second in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Scott has mixed his form at Bay Hill, but he does own two Top 5 finishes and three Top 20’s, while the fact he also ranks 17th in driving distance should take him a long way (literally) on a course that calls for plenty of yardage off the tee.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value
Matthew Fitzpatrick @ $26.00
I was quite keen on Fitzpatrick a couple of weeks ago leading into The Genesis, right before an illness forced him to withdraw right before tee-time.
That could turn out to be a blessing in disguise considering he’s now three weeks in between tournaments, while his T10 at TPC Scottsdale and his T6 at Pebble Beach also bodes extremely well.
All the Englishman has done at Bay Hill recently is finish Top 10 in each of the last three years, making him one of the most popular value plays heading into the weekend.
Chris Kirk @ $51.00
Chris Kirk can be tough to figure out at times, but he only needs to hold his form to be a real threat at Bay Hill this week.
The four-time TOUR winner stormed home at TPC Scottsdale last month to finish T14, and then went one better last week at PGA National where he shared in a tie for seventh.
He’s missed the cut three times at Bay Hill in the past but has more than made up for it with three consecutive Top 20 finishes over the last four years.
Stats-wise, Kirk is among the Top 50 in driving accuracy off the tee, and he’s also ranked Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green – a key metric that should help him handle the spacious greens this course has to offer.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Roughie
Seamus Power @ $67.00
Maybe the week off has helped the Irishman get his head straight.
Power missed the cut at both the Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational, a stunning drop off for a guy that finished inside the T15 in his previous five appearances.
He’s on debut at Bay Hill but ranked inside the Top 40 in driving accuracy, this does look a nice bounce back spot for him.
Andrew Putnam @ $101.00
Massive odds for a guy that finished in a tie for fourth last year.
Putnam has been a hard nut to crack, but as we’ve seen on a couple of occasions already this year, when he’s on, he’s typically somewhere among the leaders.
The American owns a pair of Top 20 finishes at The American Express and Pebble Beach, while he’s also been consistent with the shorter irons ranking 29th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
