PGA Championship 2012 Preview

The PGA Tour juggernaut rolls into South Carolina this week for the 94^th PGA Championship at The Ocean Course in Kiawah Island.

Situated at the eastern most end of Kiawah Island the Ocean course has more seaside holes than any other course in the northern hemisphere with ten holes running along the Atlantic while the other eight run parallel to those.

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In recent years the course has hosted the 1997 and 2003 World Cups, 1991 Ryder Cup and 2007 Senior PGA Championship.

The course measures a daunting 7676 yards and is the longest course in Major Championship history. It is a Par 72 with a rating of 77.3!!! The stimpmeter is 11.5. Greens are sea isle supreme paspalum, poa annua.

This is a Peter Dye designed course and like all Dye designs has several unique aspects. Other Dye courses include TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), TPC Louisiana (Travelers Championship), River Highlands (Travelers Championship) and Whistling Straits (2010 PGA Championship).

The field this week is hot! It includes 28 winners from this season, 31 Major winners and all of the Top 50 in the OWGR.

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The Bookies have the Top 10 as:-

Tiger Woods 9/1                      Jason Dufner 30/1

Luke Donald 18/1                    Adam Scott 30/1

Rory McIlroy 20/1                   Graeme McDowell 35/1

Lee Westwood 22/1                Justin Rose 35/1

Dustin Johnson 25/1              Matt Kuchar 35/1

To play well at Kiawah Island a player will need to adapt to the conditions. Wind can come off the Atlantic and play straight into your face or blow straight across your line of sight. Players who cope the best will find themselves higher up the leader board.

Due to the length of the course it would be wise to look for players who hit the ball far. The fairways are generous so bombers could be at a distinct advantage this week.

Greens are on the small side so GIR stats will play a part along with good ball strikers.

When looking at the field this week it would be wise to pay particular attention to the following stats- length off the tee, GIR 200+ yards, ball striking, scrambling, Par 5 birdie or better and GIR.

Taking all this into consideration two players stand out as genuine contenders.

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John Rollins 250/1   (www.sportbet.com.au)

 John has been flying under the radar this season while at the same time putting together an impressive portfolio of finishes. He has had 19 starts this season and made 11 cuts.

From those 11 cuts made he has managed nine Top 25’s and five Top 10’s. That is a pretty impressive record for someone who has not been mentioned a lot this year.

A few good finishes have included:-

• T10th Sony Open
• 3^rd Farmers Insurance
• T8th Phoenix Open
• T20th Arnold Palmer Invitational
• T24th Byron Nelson Championship

What really jumps out when looking at Rollins is his liking of Peter Dye designed courses. This year he has played on four of them and produced the following results:-

• T20th RBC Heritage (HarbourTown)
• T7th Zurich Classic of New Orleans (TPC Louisiana) -T26th in 2011, T21st in 2010, T13th in 2009.
• T25th Players Championship (TPC Sawgrass) -T13th in 2010, T37th in 2009.
• T4th Travelers Championship (River Highlands) -T2nd in 2011.

When you look at his stats for the season they stand up well for this course. This should see him compete well over the weekend.

• 30^th in driving distance
• 35^th in driving accuracy
• 3^rd in total driving
• 23^rd in GIR
• 21^st in birdie average
• 18^th in Par 5 birdie or better
• 8^th in ball striking

At the available odds of 250/1 John Rollins is an excellent each way price. He should also be looked at in top ten and top 25 markets.

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Jason Dufner 30/1   (www.sportbet.com.au)

 There are not too many golfers playing better than Jason this year. He is being talked about as the golfer of the year. He has is having a career best season and is full of confidence.

From 19 starts this season he has only missed the one cut! He has notched up eleven Top 25’s and seven Top 10’s.

His seven Top 10’s include:-

• T8th Phoenix Open
• T10th Transitions Championship
• 1^stZurich Classic of New Orleans
• 1^st Byron Nelson Championship
• 2^ndCrownePlaza Invitational
• 4^th US Open
• 7^th WGC- Bridgestone

If you want a player who is at home on Peter Dye courses then Dufner is your man. He has a distinct liking for them and seems to really enjoy the challenges that they dish up.

The Zurich Classic is a Dye design course which he won in April. He was 3^rd there the year before, 7^th in 2010 and 9^th in 2009.

At the RBC Heritage (HarbourTown) this year he was 24^th, 14^th in 2011, 41^st in 2010 and 26^th in 2009.

You can also include a 6^th at the Players Championship (TPC Sawgrass) in 2010 and a 5^th in the 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.

Stats wise he has the game to win this week.

59^th in driving distance                   22^nd in Par 5 birdie or better

19^th in driving accuracy                   2^nd in ball striking

6^th in GIR                                         20^th in scrambling

5^th in scoring average                      2^nd in all round driving

5^th in total driving

For a guy who is ranked 8^th in the World and already has two victories to his name you can not go past the 30/1 odds on offer!

 

Good luck and good punting.

 

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