Tasmania appear headed for the Sheffield Shield final after reducing Victoria to 5-151 at tea on the last day of the regular season.

The Bushrangers need another 186 from 37 overs at a run-rate of 5.1, a task looking almost impossible after a collapse of 4-10 in 21 balls on a pitch occasionally keeping low.

The visitors were set 337 to host the final when Tasmania declared their second innings at 7-325.

But the Bushrangers, who entered the final round of matches in top spot, were in strife after a double-strike from Evan Gulbis (2-40) and a disastrous runout.

Victoria’s openers Chris Rogers (25) and Rob Quiney (55) had begun well when they put on 62 before Rogers was lbw to James Faulkner (2-37).

The Bushrangers were 2-112 when Gulbis bowled Marcus Stoinis (25) with a ball that kept low, but worse was to come for the Vics.

Quiney misjudged one from Faulkner and lost his off-stump at 3-116 before Gulbis had Michael Hill (5) caught behind at 4-118.

A brilliant direct hit from Tigers skipper George Bailey left Cameron White (1) stranded and the home side’s dream of delivering a first state title to champion Ricky Ponting was alive and well at 5-122.

Tasmania will make the final if they win and will host it if Queensland beat Western Australia in the other game still in progress.

Victoria will host the final if they can somehow conjure a win, but their only hope of playing the decider now appears to be draws in both Hobart and Perth.

A loss by either side at Bellerive means they will miss the final.

The make-up of the decider, however, won’t be known until the match in Perth, with its three-hour time delay, is completed.

Earlier, it was Ponting (86) and 20-year-old maiden century-maker Jordan Silk (127) who led Tasmania’s charge from 1-137 overnight with a stand of 142 at close to five runs an over.

The former Test skipper tops the Shield run-scorers’ list this season with 875 at 87.5.