Collingwood’s clash with winless Greater Western Sydney on Saturday looms as the calm before the storm as a tough run home puts the Magpies in a fight to confirm their AFL finals berth.
After taking on the Giants, the Magpies – whose 10 wins leave them needing probably two more to keep their top-eight spot – face second-placed Essendon, fourth-placed Sydney in Sydney then top-placed Hawthorn.
They’ll be underdogs in all three.
Unless they can produce an upset, the Magpies are likely to need to beat at least one of West Coast or North Melbourne in the last two rounds to guarantee their playoffs berth.
The round-22 MCG clash with the Eagles looms as one of several key remaining finals-shaping matches, particularly if West Coast can produce an upset or two before then to keep their season alive.
Eighth-placed Port Adelaide are obviously the club most under threat of losing their spot, to ninth-placed Carlton, making those two clubs’ last-round meeting potentially the most crucial remaining game.
But if the Power can beat the three sides below them they play in the meantime – Brisbane, Adelaide and Gold Coast – and the Blues can’t beat any of three sides above them – Fremantle, Richmond and Essendon – downing Port in the last round won’t be enough for Carlton to overtake them.
That makes the Power’s round 19 showdown with the Crows another huge game, as a win would also keep Adelaide in the finals hunt.
The Blues’ round 21 encounter with Richmond could be similarly important.
Unless sixth-placed Richmond can upset Sydney or Hawthorn in the next fortnight, they might need to beat Carlton to confirm their spot, although the fact the Tigers face GWS the following round eases the pressure.
In the battle for the minor premiership and top four berths, Friday night’s top-of-the-table clash between Essendon and Hawthorn looms large.
A Hawks win would make them hard to dislodge from top spot and leave the Bombers with some work to confirm their top-four place, although they would still be favoured to make it.
A kind draw gives fifth-placed Fremantle a decent chance of gaining a double-chance at Sydney’s expense.
The only top-eight side the Dockers are still to face is Port Adelaide, in Perth in round 22.
Geelong also seem safe in the four, given their favourable draw.
But the Swans face another four top-eight opponents, including Geelong and Hawthorn, in the last two rounds, and might have to down the Cats, Hawks or both to stay fourth.