PREVIEW OF ROUND 16 IN THE AFL (ALL TIMES AEST)
FRIDAY, July 6
Richmond v Adelaide at the MCG, 7.50pm
Head to head: Tigers 13 Crows 24 Drawn 0
Last clash: R2, 2018 – Crows 18.10 (118) bt Tigers 12.10 (82) at Adelaide Oval
TAB Sportsbet: Tigers $1.25 Crows $4.00
William Hill: Tigers $1.22 Crows $4.40
Richmond have won 16 straight at the MCG, one short of the record streak at the ground. It’s a fascinating clash, given last year’s grand final and the number that the Crows did on Richmond when they clashed in round two. The Crows rightly will start outsiders, but their shocking run of injuries is starting to ease and they will regain Tom Lynch. An upset of the reigning premiers would put Adelaide right back in the finals mix.
Key: Taylor Walker. The Adelaide captain has said that he did not cope with the grand final pressure last September. It has been a tough season so far for Tex, who has missed games because of injury, but he was outstanding in last week’s win over West Coast. If he fires against the watertight Richmond defence, Adelaide are a big chance.
Tip: Tigers by 20 points
SATURDAY, July 7
Brisbane v Carlton at The Gabba, 1.45pm
Head to head: Lions 21 Blues 28 Drawn 0
Last clash: R18, 2017 – Lions 17.10 (112) bt Blues 11.16 (82) at The Gabba
TAB Sportsbet: Lions $1.40 Blues $3.00
William Hill: Lions $1.38 Blues $3.05
The Lions should win, going a long way to confirming they avoid a second-straight wooden spoon. They are second-last and coming off a big win over Fremantle in Perth, while the Blues are game below them and staring at their second spoon in four years. Carlton are also showing signs of life, with encouraging performances against Collingwood and Port Adelaide. But the young Lions look better equipped and boast the best attack among the bottom six sides.
Key: Jarrod Berry v Patrick Cripps. Before Fremantle captain Nat Fyfe went off with a hamstring injury last Sunday, he was having trouble shaking Berry’s tag. Cripps rightly has earned plenty of kudos as one of the AFL’s top young onballers and hopefully he goes head-to-head with the second-year Lion.
Tip: Lions by 30 points
Port Adelaide v St Kilda at Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm
Head to head: Power 18 Saints 10 Drawn 0
Last clash: R19, 2017 – Power 9.9 (63) bt Saints 8.13 (61) at Adelaide Oval
TAB Sportsbet: Power $1.11 Saints $6.50
William Hill: Power $1.10 Saints $7.50
This might have been a danger game for Port, given the Saints have won their last two games. But Josh Bruce’s return is ruined thanks to a broken leg, fellow forward Josh Battle has a fractured eye socket and Jake Carlisle has a punctured lung. The Power are a class above the developing Saints and are knocking on the door of the top four with a four-game winning streak.
Key: Robbie Gray. The Saints have bad memories of the Power star, who kicked a goal with seconds left to win their last clash. Gray wasn’t at his best on the weekend, but still kicked three goals and is one of the AFL’s most dangerous forwards. .
Tip: Power by 40
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium, 7.25pm
Head to head: Bulldogs 76 Hawks 82 Drawn 2
Last clash: R23, 2017 – Hawthorn 15.9 (99) bt Bulldogs 13.12 (90) at Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Bulldogs $2.75 Hawks $1.45
William Hill: Bulldogs $2.70 Hawks $1.47
The last time these two teams met, it was the last hurrah for Bob Murphy, Matthew Boyd, Luke Hodge and Josh Gibson. Now the Hawks officially start life without Cyril Rioli. And they must win, sitting just outside the top eight after a narrow loss where they failed to match GWS in contested ball and clearances. While the Dogs will miss the finals again, they rediscovered their bite with a win over Geelong and will fancy their chances of another upset.
Key: Tom Mitchell. The prolific Hawks midfielder racked up 50 possessions against the Giants and the Bulldogs will have done their homework on how to blunt his influence at the stoppages. He can expect some close attention from Josh Dunkley.
Tip: Hawks by 20
Melbourne v Fremantle at TIO Stadium, Darwin, 7.40pm
Head to head: Demons 14 Dockers 22 Drawn 0
Last clash: R4, 2017 – Dockers 16.10 (106) bt Demons 15.14 (104) at the MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Demons $1.10 Dockers $7.00
William Hill: Demons $1.13 Dockers $6.00
Melbourne’s top-four hopes have taken a battering following three-straight losses. Last week’s two-point upset against St Kilda has given the critics plenty of fodder. But Fremantle were a rabble in last week’s 55-point loss to lowly Brisbane. And to make matters worse, stars Aaron Sandilands (calf) and Nat Fyfe (hamstring) are out. It’s not a crisis for the Demons, but it will be if Fremantle win this. Dom Tyson leads four Melbourne axings.
Key: Max power. With no Sandilands to stop him, Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn could have a field day. If Fremantle can’t find a way to limit Gawn’s influence in the ruck and around the ground, the scoreboard could get ugly.
Tip: Demons by 30
SUNDAY, July 8
North Melbourne v Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Head to head: Kangaroos 5 Suns 5 Drawn 0
Last clash: R1, 2018 – Suns 7.13 (55) bt Kangaroos 5.9 (39) at Cazalys Stadium, Cairns
TAB Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.08 Suns $8.00
William Hill: Kangaroos $1.08 Suns $8.00
Last Sunday’s shootout against Essendon was great entertainment, but it cost North the top-eight berth they had held for six games. They should bounce back against the hapless Suns, who bring a nine-game losing streak to Melbourne. The Suns have managed more than 10 goals only once in their last six games and, clearly, could do with co-captain Tom Lynch in attack. By contrast, the Roos are fifth in the league for scoring.
Key: Ben Brown v Steven May. The North spearhead only kicked two goals against the Bombers. May returned last week from a month out because of injury. Gold Coast must subdue Brown to give themselves a hope.
Tip: Kangaroos by 50
Essendon v Collingwood at the MCG, 3.20pm
Head to head: Bombers 103 Magpies 129 Drawn 4
Last clash: R5, 2018 – Magpies 14.17 (101) bt Bombers 7.10 (52) at the MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Bombers $2.35 Magpies $1.60
William Hill: Bombers $2.35 Magpies $1.60
Essendon were a rabble on Anzac Day, but a lot has changed since April. The Bombers have won five of their last six to emerge as top-eight hopefuls. This is another massive test of their credentials, with Collingwood rising to second on the ladder thanks to a six-game winning streak. Even without injured front-liners Adam Treloar and Lynden Dunn, Collingwood are stacked with depth and finally have a forward system that works. This should be a beauty. But Essendon’s four worst losses this season – to Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton and Richmond – have all been at the MCG.
Key: Zach Merrett v Levi Greenwood. Merrett’s form has picked up in the last few weeks and he starred against against North. Greenwood will return from concussion and probably will go to the Bombers star, who had his struggles earlier this season against taggers.
Tip: Magpies by 10
West Coast v GWS at Optus Stadium, 4.40pm
Head to head: Eagles 6 Giants 3 Drawn 0
Last clash: R8, 2018 – Eagles 12.14 (86) bt Giants 8.13 (61) at Spotless Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Eagles $1.50 Giants $2.60
William Hill: Eagles $1.55 Giants $2.50
West Coast find themselves in a mini-rut following three straight losses. They were blown away in the final term against Adelaide last week and will again be without star forward trio Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras, and Jack Darling. The Eagles were dealt a further blow this week when goalsneak Liam Ryan was ruled out after crashing his car into a tree in mysterious circumstances. GWS had regained their mojo following four straight wins, but losing Jonathon Patton is a massive blow.
Key: Who kicks the goals? No Kennedy, Darling, LeCras or Ryan for the Eagles. Patton now joins Jeremy Cameron and Toby Greene on the sidelines and they were the three leading goalkickers last year for GWS. This is the week for Jamie Cripps and Rory Lobb to stand up.
Tip: Eagles by 20.
