The possibilities are meaningless and the risks enormous if Collingwood lose to Essendon in Friday night’s AFL blockbuster at the MCG.

Much of the Magpies’ fate is out of their hands, with other results in an enthralling round 23 to have a major say in how they will start their finals campaign.

But first, they must be careful not to stumble against the injury-plagued Bombers.

“We know that our footy stands up when we’re up and about, so we’re hoping we can keep finding our best footy and see how far we can go,” Collingwood assistant coach Garry Hocking said.

“But we don’t have a focus beyond the Bombers because we can’t control all of the permutations and we need to keep our form going against a really good side that will challenge us with the ball and around stoppage.”

If Collingwood win and either West Coast or Richmond lose, they will return to the top four and gain a finals double chance.

But an upset loss guarantees an elimination final, possibly against the rampant Western Bulldogs.

While the Bulldogs must beat Adelaide in Ballarat to confirm they are in the finals, their barnstorming form over the last few weeks makes them a dangerous proposition.

Seventh-placed Essendon are guaranteed an elimination final and they also will not know their opponent until the end of round 23.

The bigger immediate problem for Essendon is their ongoing injury woes.

They had to make six changes for Friday night, five of them forced.

Captain Dyson Heppell, Jake Stringer, David Zaharakis, Zac Clarke and Orazio Fantasia are significant casualties.

Tom Jok will make his senior debut, while Cale Hooker and Tom Bellchambers headline the inclusions.

It is the third-straight week Essendon have made at least five changes to their team.

Collingwood will regain key defender Darcy Moore, while Steele Sidebottom misses his first game since early 2016 because of surgery on a ruptured testicle.