From the moment James Hird, David Evans and Ian Robson filed into that February 5 media conference, looking like someone close to them had died, Essendon were in huge trouble.
The Bombers are far from dead – and they will pull through this crisis – but one of the AFL’s most powerful clubs will need a miracle to escape the mother of all hidings.
Even if the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority (ASADA) decides not to issue any infraction notices against Essendon players, the AFL has laid the dreaded “conduct unbecoming” and “bringing the game into disrepute” charges.
The AFL Commission will have vast powers when it hears those charges on August 26.
It can strip premiership points and draft picks or hand out suspensions.
No-one doubts the pain that commission hearing can cause Essendon.
But plenty of people are wondering if Essendon should face any AFL punishment at all.
Certainly some high-powered lawyers will have that debate behind closed doors ahead of the commission hearing as the league and Essendon manoeuvre around each other.
Don’t be surprised if this ends up with a Supreme Court injunction or two.
Essendon fans can point to the fact that after a six-month investigation, ASADA is yet to charge any Bombers players with doping offences.
The ASADA investigation is ongoing, but there is certainly a scenario where no specific anti-doping action is taken because nothing can be proved.
That’s great for the players, but back to that February 5 media conference.
You had the Essendon coach, chairman and chief executive announcing serious concerns about the club’s supplements program.
If this was a top-level cycling team and the investigation had taken as long, there is a very strong chance that team would have been barred from last month’s Tour de France.
We’re talking supplements and, by definition, potential doping. Not dodgy player contracts or cooking the salary cap books. Doping.
For a moment, let’s set aside whether AOD-9604 was legal or banned. That’s obviously a whole argument in itself.
But why the hell were players being injected with an anti-obesity drug that is not even approved yet for human use?
Pig’s brain extract? Forty injections in a season? What?
And set aside all the media leaks, posturing and politicking. Essendon’s own independent investigation found a “pharmacologically experimental environment” existed at the club last season.
Yes, it’s strange that the AFL have laid charges before the ASADA investigation is over.
But that’s been the benefit of two investigations basically joined at the hip – the AFL could ask the anti-doping body for an interim report so it could take action before the season’s finals.
It’s an unorthodox move and the back-room legal wranglings will no doubt decide if it’s anything more serious.
But one way or another, the Bombers were always going to be in trouble. You’d think the AFL will want to send the strongest message possible to the 17 other clubs to be a lot more careful with sports science.
Essendon sailed very close to the wind last year, apparently with very sloppy navigation.