The good news for St Kilda, as they prepare to face Geelong on Saturday night, is that the Cats have slipped up against bottom-eight sides twice in the past five weeks.
The bad news for the 16th-placed Saints is that the previous two times this season Geelong – pipped by Adelaide last round – have been on the rebound from a defeat they’ve bounced back with a vengeance.
After losing to Collingwood in round eight, the Cats hit back with a seven-goals-to-none opening quarter against Port Adelaide.
They went on to hand the Power a 48-point defeat, their biggest loss so far this season.
After a fade-out loss to Brisbane in round 13, the Cats hit back even harder against Fremantle six days later.
They strangled the life out of the Dockers, keeping them goal-less in the first quarter and scoreless in the third to thrash Fremantle by 41 points, just one off their worst result this year.
Even so, it’s as close as any opposition have got to Geelong this season at Simonds Stadium, the scene of Saturday night’s clash with the Saints.
St Kilda haven’t played at the Geelong venue since 2004 and midfield veteran Lenny Hayes is the only member of the current side who has ever experienced victory there.
The Saints, whose only wins this season have come against Carlton and the bottom two sides Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney, nearly came from behind to pip Port Adelaide last round, falling five points short.
But their late charge will give them some heart against Geelong, given all three of the Cats’ defeats so far this season have come after leading at three-quarter time.
Geelong have lost Jimmy Bartel to suspension and rested athletic ruckman Mark Blicavs, while Josh Hunt (shin) and Jesse Stringer (knee) are out injured.
They’ve also dropped Jordan Murdoch.
The Cats have regained Steve Johnson from suspension and Taylor Hunt, who was a late withdrawal against the Crows, with Nathan Vardy, Mitch Brown and George Horlin-Smith their other inclusions.
The Saints have regained Jarryn Geary from a leg injury and recalled Arryn Siposs, at the expense of Rhys Stanley and Trent Dennis-Lane.