The AFL’s night of nights gets underway on Monday with several of the league’s top stars descending upon the red carpet for the Brownlow.
As has been the case for most of the season, it’s shaping as a race in two between Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli, but just like last year, we could be in for some late drama with Zak Butters and Christian Petracca in the mix.
Who will come away with the Charlie on the AFL’s most prestigious night?
Read our entire 2023 Brownlow Medal Preview here!
Outright Betting
This should be a rollercoaster most of the way, and I’d be surprised if there’s anything more than three votes separating Daicos from the Bont when it’s all said and done.
Daicos missing the last six games to injury makes this so complicated, but did he do enough beforehand to sew the Brownlow up?
The star midfielder had six straight games of 30+ disposals to begin the year, but he also had five multi-goal games to compliment those numbers.
Bontempelli started the season a little quieter, but he gathered some pace around the midseason mark, also finishing strongly with back-to-back games of 30+ touches and 10 tackles.
While those numbers are giddy, I’m not sold on the Bont seccuring all three votes in the win down in Geelong to close out the season.
Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore both put forward big performances, something that could be said for several Bulldog games earlier in the year.
There’s no doubt Collingwood’s long list of stars may have taken votes away from Daicos, but with the footy world abuzz about this kid through the first couple months, I just can’t see him missing many votes.
Tip: Nick Daicos @ $2.90
Player Votes
Outside of the main favourites, there is some value to be found in the Player Votes this year.
Several names stand out to me, so I’ll list the ones I’m most keen on here.
- Jack Sinclair 20+ @ $2.60
- Tim Taranto 25+ @ $2.25
- Jordan Dawson 20+ @ $1.85
We’ll start with Sinclair, who for mine, was the best player on the Saints this year. Averaging 29 disposals in the process, his electric run through the midfield really sparked St Kilda’s late run to the finals, while he also ranked fourth in metres gained and first in kicks.
Those last two don’t equal votes, but Sinclair’s effort level for all four quarters surely caught the attention of umpires throughou the season.
Taranto is next, who again, was hands down the best player in yellow and black throughout the course of the season. The fact he averaged a career-high 28 disposals alongside ball magnets like Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin speaks for itself, but the fact he also slotted 19 goals was also impressive.
Jordan Dawson is the last one worth backing to have 20+. He was firmly in the Brownlow conversation during the first 10 weeks, and I’d be staggered if he didn’t poll well in early games against Freo, Carlton, and the Pies where he was all over the Sherrin.
Multi: Sinclair, Dawson, Taranto 20+ Votes @ $10.82
Top 20 Finish
Every year there are a few surprise names that sneak inside the Top 20, and I think that could be the case again this year.
Tom Liberatore ($2.50) is the first one that stands out. Coming off a career year that saw him average 27 disposals and nearly seven tackles a game, Libba was a force in helping the Dogs keep their heads above water, really filling the void Josh Dunkley left around the ground.
Jordan deGoey ($2.50) should also poll better than people expect. It’s a midfielders award, but he had some monster games in the disposal count, racking up 35 twice and 25+ on six other occasions.
Lastly, I also think the other Daicos could creep up the board in the later rounds. Josh was responsible for plenty of the one-percenters that spurred Collingwood’s winning streak at one point, his season highligh being 38 disposals and four tackles in the Round 22 win over Geelong.
Multi: Tom Liberatore, Jordan deGoey, Josh Daicos Top 20 Finish @ $21.87
Team Betting
It’s an open and shut case for several players in the Team Betting markets this year, but there are a few key standouts worth discussing.
Carlton
Charlie Curnow ($1.85) leads the way for the Blues over last year’s winner, Patrick Cripps ($2.05).
Crippa missed Rounds 19 and 24, but he was particularly strong in the back half of the season, racking up 29 touches in a win over the Dees, and 10 tackles a few weeks earlier against the Pies.
He wasn’t anywhere close to the player he was last season but averaging 25 disposals and a team high five tackles a game, the value on Cripps to lead Carlton’s count is tough to ignore.
Patrick Cripps @ $2.05
Hawthorn
James Sicily had a phenomenal season when he was on the field for the Hawks this year, but that last part – staying on the field – is crucial to his chances.
Hawthorn’s key defender had two monster games, finishing with 43 touches against St Kilda in Round 11, and 37 in a boil-over win against Collingwood in the final month. That said, he missed four games through suspension, which does bring superstar midfielder Jai Newcombe into the equation.
The 22-year-old averaged 25 touches and nearly four tackles a game in his second season, while he was also second on the team behind James Worpel (another name that could poll sneakily well) in contested possessions.
Jai Newcombe @ $2.40
Melbourne (Without Christian Petracca)
Melbourne’s polling should prove interesting if you remove Petracca from the picture.
Jack Viney ($1.60) should poll well, but I struggle to see him finishing with many three-vote games, particularly early in the year.
At the same time, Clayton Oliver missed Rounds 11-21 to various “ailments”, but I think he would have polled exceptionally well before hand, putting up 30+ disposals in eight of those 10 games.
Clayton Oliver @ $2.75
West Coast Eagles (Without Tim Kelly)
Tim Kelly (although ineligible to actually win) is a shoo-in to lead the charge for the embattled West Coast Eagles, but outside of the star midfielder, things get tricky in a hurry.
Luke Shuey should have polled okay toward the back-end of the year, likely picking up all three votes against Richmond in Round 18.
Shuey also played a decent game finishing 25 touches and a goal against Adelaide in the final game of the season, but there’s a genuine case to be made for Jamie Cripps after rewinding the clock in the final month.
This is a tough one, but the edge goes to Shuey narrowly.
Luke Shuey @ $3.60
