We take a look at tonight’s AFL Brownlow Medal count and give our tips and bets as well as list the favourites in the market where Lachie Neale heads the odds to go back to back.
BROWNLOW WINNER
TIP: Lachie Neale (Bris) @ $3.25
The phrase “Dual Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale” seems about right, and the Lions superstar midfielder seems very much on track to win his second Brownlow in three seasons.
Neale played all 22 games this season with an average of 30 disposals, had most of the Sherrin for 11 Lions wins and kicked at least 1+ goal in seven of those games and in many matches was judged best on ground or came second in the votes.
These stats tick all the boxes for someone who polls Brownlow votes and most of these indicators were also achieved by nine of the last 10 players to take Charlie home – including Neale himself when he won by the length of the Flemington straight in 2020.
The only game where he won’t be polling votes is the Lions’ Round 23 loss to the Demons, however, he may have already gotten himself the medal by then.
While I expect a tight finish in the medal overall, Neale will be streets ahead of any of his Lions teammates when it comes to getting votes and given Brisbane won 15 games during the home and away season, all roads point to a Lachie Neale Brownlow.
TOP 3 BET
TIP: Touk Miller (GC Suns) @ $3
If he was playing for a big club, Miller would be spoken of as one of the superstars of the AFL, but alas, he is an off-broadway (or Broadbeach should I say) beauty for the Gold Coast Suns.
While he wasn’t amongst the Suns best in their big win over North in the final round, Miller made a late charge towards the end of the season averaging 28.5 disposals a game and was amongst it as the Suns played some of their finest footy in season 2022.
Various vote predictors have Miller at the 21 – 22 vote mark and he’s an $8 underdog to win the whole thing.
Worth a crack at the $3 on offer, and every chance to equal with the likes of Andy Brayshaw and Christian Petracca in third place if the count is a thriller.
