Essendon’s AFL arch-rivals Carlton will be the most obvious beneficiaries if the Bombers lose their premiership points but some other clubs’ finals hopes will also take a big leap.
Essendon are expected to learn next week the outcome of the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority (ASADA) investigation.
The AFL is also investigating the Bombers and regardless of ASADA’s findings, there is strong speculation that the league will come down hard on the club.
Removing the Bombers, currently fourth, from the finals picture, would make Richmond, Collingwood and Port Adelaide, who sit sixth to eighth respectively, much more secure.
Sydney and Fremantle, who face a possible battle for a spot in the four, should instead both get the double chance.
The Blues, now ninth, will have the inside running on eighth, setting up a likely elimination final blockbuster against Richmond or Collingwood.
But North Melbourne, West Coast, Adelaide and Brisbane, all three wins behind eighth-placed Port Adelaide, will be much more positive about their chances of bridging their two-game gap to the Blues, particularly as Carlton face four sides above them in the last five rounds.
That potential scenario adds weight to what were already shaping as pivotal matches this weekend: North Melbourne versus Geelong at Etihad Stadium, Carlton versus Fremantle at the same venue and Adelaide’s showdown with Port Adelaide.
How the Bombers hold up if what’s shaping as their best year since 2001 is suddenly rendered worthless could be another wildcard factor.
After facing Collingwood this weekend, they play West Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond, all finals hopefuls who would relish facing a disheartened opponent.
It’s a situation the NRL has experienced twice in the past 11 years, with salary cap penalties for Melbourne Storm, who played without the ability to attract competition points for most of 2010, and Canterbury, stripped of their points late in the 2002 season.
A much more unlikely scenario, but one that would further complicate the finals race, is if premiership points are not only taken from Essendon but transferred to the sides they’ve already beaten.
Of the eight sides sitting from fifth to 13th, Essendon have beaten all of them except the Kangaroos, who they’re yet to play, and Brisbane, who upset the Bombers in round eight.
One more club who could benefit if the Bombers are stripped of all points and percentage are Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants host second-bottom Melbourne this weekend, but if they can’t down the Demons they might still achieve the unique combination of not winning a game yet avoiding the wooden spoon.