Preview of AFL Round 22 matches (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, August 17
Richmond v Essendon at MCG 7.50pm
Head to head: Tigers 93 Bombers 104 drawn 4
Richmond’s spot in the top-two is secure, but Essendon are still a chance to feature in the finals if they win both remaining games. The Bombers’ form is as good as nearly any team during the past five rounds, losing just once. But stopping the Tigers on the MCG has proved near impossible given they’ve won their past 19 at the venue. Richmond will be without captain Trent Cotchin and fellow premiership players David Astbury, Dion Prestia and Kane Lambert but Reece Conca returns from an ankle injury.
Key: Jack Riewoldt is in red-hot form, booting 10 goals against Gold Coast last week, and the Bombers will need to curb his influence.
Tip: Tigers by 13 points
SATURDAY, August 18
Collingwood v Port Adelaide at MCG 1.45pm
Head to head: Magpies 14 Power 15
This game will have massive ramifications for both teams, with Port heading to Victoria reeling from Jeremy McGovern’s goal after the siren to steal West Coast a win last week. The Power have gone from top-four contenders to clinging onto a finals spot in the past month. The Magpies can earn a double-chance if they win their remaining two games despite their mammoth injury list while Port has named Paddy Ryder despite doubt over his hip injury.
Key: How do the Power fill the void in attack caused by spearhead Charlie Dixon’s season-ending broken leg?
Tip: Magpies by 21 points
Geelong v Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium 2.10pm
Head to head: Cats 25 Dockers 12
Geelong can’t afford to drop this one as they sit a game outside the top eight. But the Cats prey on middle-of-the-road teams like Fremantle at home, despite the Dockers’ fair record at the Cattery, and should win this one comfortably. Geelong regain key swingman Harry Taylor, but the Dockers get captain Nat Fyfe back from a six-week absence due to a hamstring strain in a major boost for Ross Lyon’s men.
Key: Can the Dockers shut down Cats forward Tom Hawkins and kick a winning score themselves?
Tip: Cats by 49 points
GWS v Sydney at Spotless Stadium 4.35pm
Head to head: Giants 4 Swans 10
Shapes as the biggest regular-season Sydney derby ever with the result to have a major say on where the teams will finish up. The cross-town rivals have both been hit hard by injuries, with their respective round-21 wins soured by key players going down. The Giants can almost seal a top-four spot with victory, while the Swans will be assured of September action with a win of their own.
Key: Have the Giants reached another tipping point with their injury list as the casualty ward approaches an entire starting team?
Tip: Swans by 4 points
Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions at Metricon Stadium 7.25pm
Head to head: Suns 6 Lions 9
Since winning the season’s first QClash in round five, Gold Coast have won just one game since. While the Suns have slid dramatically, the Lions have enjoyed a steady climb to earn respect within the AFL despite winning just four games. Chris Fagan’s team will be desperate to finish above their Queensland rivals on the ladder.
Key: The Suns need to find more avenues to goal as they have scored the least amount of points in the league.
Tip: Lions by 27 points
St Kilda v Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium 7.25pm
Head to head: Saints 72 Hawks 81 drawn 2
Hawthorn have a top-four spot on the line and won’t want to let it go against struggling St Kilda. The Hawks came unstuck twice against Brisbane this year, but the Saints have been battling to even stay competitive and were smashed by the Bombers last week. Defender Nathan Brown will miss the rest of the season through suspension for the Saints.
Key: Can Hawthorn do a bit better than their mixed record at Etihad Stadium this year, which is 2-2.
Tip: Hawks by 46 points
SUNDAY, August 19
Carlton v Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium 1.10pm
Head to head: Blues 87 Bulldogs 54 drawn 4
Nothing but pride on the line here as Carlton still need to win at least one more game to equal their worst record in an AFL season. The Bulldogs are coming off a thrilling win against North Melbourne last week as Marcus Bontempelli has had a major influence since his return to the side.
Key: The battle between young stars Bontempelli and Carlton’s Patrick Cripps will be one to tune in to.
Tip: Bulldogs by 39 points
West Coast v Melbourne at Optus Stadium 3.20pm
Head to head: Eagles 33 Demons 16
West Coast can seal a home final and a double chance with a win here, but there’s even more at stake for Melbourne. The Demons are stumbling towards their first finals appearance in 12 years and could still miss the eight. They need at least one victory from their last two games to be assured of playing in September.
Key: How do Melbourne cope without injured spearhead Jesse Hogan for the remainder of the season?
Tip: Eagles by 18 points
Adelaide v North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval 4.40pm
Head to head: Crows 22 Kangaroos 20
While Adelaide’s finals hopes are dead and buried, the Kangaroos are still a slim chance to feature. They blew a golden opportunity against the Western Bulldogs last week that may come back to haunt them. Crows captain Taylor Walker will miss the rest of the season through suspension.
Key: The Crows are always tough to beat at home and the Kangaroos have lost all five games at the Adelaide Oval by an average margin of 56 points.
Tip: Crows by 42 points.