Preview of AFL Round 20 matches (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, August 3
Richmond v Geelong at MCG 7.50pm
Head to Head: Tigers 87 Cats 103 drawn 3
The Cats, holding eighth spot by percentage, are the latest to take on what has become mission seemingly impossible: beat the Tigers at the MCG, where the reigning premiers have won 18 consecutive games. Geelong’s hopes largely hinge on their midfield aces Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan gaining ascendancy over the likes of Tiger star Dustin Martin, whose temperament is again likely to be tested by a tight tag from Scott Selwood.
Key: The mouth-watering duel between Tiger great Alex Rance and key Cat Tom Hawkins, who has 14 goals in his past two games.
Tip: Tigers by 24 points
SATURDAY, August 4
Hawthorn v Essendon at MCG 1.45pm
Head to Head: Hawks 64 Bombers 97
High stakes, with the Hawks clinging to seventh – just one win ahead of the charging Bombers who are on a three-game winning stretch. Essendon’s resurgence dates back further – eight wins from 10 games – but they must put the clamps on Hawthorn’s Brownlow medal favourite Tom Mitchell, the league’s leading ball-winner who has more than 100 disposals than the next-best.
Key: Can Essendon nullify Hawk goalsneak Luke Breust, who is third on the goalkicking table after scoring nine majors in his past two outings?
Tip: Essendon by 10 points
Brisbane v North Melbourne at The Gabba 2.10pm
Head to Head: Lions 15 Kangaroos 19 drawn 1
Crunch time for the Kangas, who are 10th and a win outside the top eight. Brad Scott’s side simply can’t afford to drop this game against the Lions, who have lost successive games after a heartening three-game winning streak. Brisbane’s chances depend on matching the Roos’ renowned strength around the packs – North are ranked fourth in contested possessions.
Key: North spearhead Ben Brown looms as the game-breaker. Another sizeable haul from the Coleman medal leader will put his side on track for victory.
Tip: Kangaroos by 26 points
Adelaide v Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval 4.35pm
Head to Head: Crows 22 Power 22
Port relish the prospect of a win to officially end 12th-placed Adelaide’s finals hopes. Ken Hinkley’s side could rise to third on the ladder with a victory, but history suggests another tight tussle – the clubs have remarkably shared the Showdown spoils with 22 wins apiece – with a crucial ruck battle between Port’s Paddy Ryder and the man he pipped for All Australian honours last year, Sam Jacobs
Key: The scoring output of two of the best small forwards in the game – Port’s Robbie Gray and Adelaide’s Eddie Betts – will tip the scales either way.
Tip: Power by 18 points
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium 7.25pm
Head to Head: Saints 81 Bulldogs 75 drawn 3
The Bulldogs enter this clash of the also-rans in woeful form – nine losses in 10 games – yet they’re still one rung ahead of the 15th-paced Saints on the ladder. The attacking ability of St Kilda’s Jade Gresham (32 goals this year) and Tim Membrey (29 goals) could just split the sides.
Key: Can top Dog Marcus Bontempelli get off the leash of Saint tagger Jack Steele?
Tip: Saints by 30 points
Sydney v Collingwood at SCG 7.25pm
Head to head: Swans 83 Magpies 141 drawn 1
The Swans are in a rut, losing four of their past five games to slip to ninth on the ladder. And the third-placed Magpies could slide outside the coveted top-four with a loss. Sydney’s planning will centre on breaking even with influential ruckman Brodie Grundy to prevent him feeding prime movers Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury.
Key: Can Lance Franklin, with just five goals in his past three matches, find his mojo?
Tip: Swans by 6 points
SUNDAY, August 5
Carlton v Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Blues 3 Giants 4
The Giants are ominously clicking into top gear, with seven wins from their past eight games and the prospect of jumping into the top four with another. GWS will seek to quell Carlton gun Patrick Cripps, who is ranked seventh in the competition for disposals, and then build a big victory to deliver a timely percentage boost.
Key: Giant spearhead Jeremy Cameron returns from a five-game suspension and will get plenty of scoring chances against the club with the worst defensive record in the league.
Tip: Giants by 90 points
Melbourne v Gold Coast at MCG 3.20pm
Head to Head: Demons 8 Suns 2
A golden opportunity for Melbourne to gain some breathing space on the clogged ladder – they’re sixth with a healthy percentage and could find themselves in the top four at the end of the round. The 17th-placed Suns are the league’s lowest scorers while the Demons are the highest. Enough said.
Key: Melbourne’s Max Gawn leads the league for hit-outs but meets the second-ranked ruckman, unsung Sun Jarrod Witts., in an intriguing personal duel.
Tip: Demons by 78 points
West Coast v Fremantle at Optus Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Eagles 27 Dockers 20
Much resting on this derby for the Eagles, perched in second spot despite last week’s loss to North. West Coast are just two wins ahead of ninth spot but only one win behind pacesetters Richmond. The Eagles have won six consecutive derbies while the 13th-placed Dockers are limping to the finish line of another disappointing season.
Key: Can Freo defenders cope with West Coast spearhead Jack Darling?
Tip: Eagles by 42 points
