AFL round-18 preview panel

PREVIEW OF AFL ROUND-18 MATCHES (all times AEST):

FRIDAY, July 21

Adelaide v Geelong at Adelaide Oval, 7.50pm

Head to Head: Crows 17 Cats 23

Last clash: Round 11, 2017 – Cats 13.18 (96) bt Crows 10.14 (74) at Simonds Stadium

Tab Sportsbet odds: Crows $1.50 Cats $2.60

William Hill: Crows $1.47 Cats $2.65

A mouth-watering match between the ladder-leading Crows and second-placed Cats. Adelaide have lost the past five against the Cats, although four of those fixtures have been in Geelong. But to be considered genuine premiership contenders, the Crows must claim Geelong’s scalp. Adelaide’s vaunted attack, led by in-form captain Taylor Walker, gets the plaudits for being the highest-scoring team in the comp but the Crows also boast a defence ranked third for scores conceded. Can their blue-collar midfield match it with Geelong’s blue-chip onballers? Geelong have named star onballer Patrick Dangerfield, but he must prove his fitness.

Key: Geelong skipper Joel Selwood averages 29.64 disposals against the Crows – his highest average against any team. Adelaide don’t usually deploy a tagger but surely they’ll try to put the clamps on the inspirational Cat.

Tip: Adelaide by 6 points

SATURDAY, July 22

Essendon v North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm

Head to Head: Bombers 96 Kangaroos 57 drawn 1

Last clash: Round 8, 2016 – Kangaroos 10.14 (74) bt Essendon 8.12 (60) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Bombers $1.30 Kangaroos $3.55

William Hill: Bombers $1.27 Kangaroos $3.75

The Bombers could find themselves in the top eight by beating the battered Kangaroos, who are limping to the end of the year. North coach Brad Scott admits a spate of injuries is forcing him to throw youngsters into the deep end before they’re ready. And his forward line is a one-man band, with Ben Brown equal-third on the goalkicking table but getting scant support. Essendon’s towelling of St Kilda last start is evidence of their largely untapped powers, and another percentage-boosting win is on the cards. North have dropped out-of-sorts ruckman Todd Goldstein.

Key: Can the Saints contain Zach Merrett? The Bomber is in red-hot form – he’s fourth in the league for disposals after having 37 touches and laying 10 tackles last game.

Tip: Bombers by 66 points

Melbourne v Port Adelaide at MCG, 2.10pm

Head to Head: Demons 12 Power 19

Last clash: Round 21, 2016 – Demons 13.16 (94) bt Power 8.6 (54) at Adelaide Oval

Tab Sportsbet: Demons $2.30 Power $1.62

William Hill: Demons $2.35 Power $1.60

Expel any doubts about Port being the real deal: they’re in fourth spot, have the league’s top-ranked defence, second-best attack and second-highest percentage. And they’ll face a Melbourne outfit hurt by Bernie Vince’s suspension and still battling to cover injuries to key players. The seventh-placed Demons are in a ladder logjam, one of four sides with nine wins, and will hope key forward Jesse Hogan can find touch – especially with small forward Jeff Garlett briefly back to WA for personal reasons. Jack Watts is back to help their attack, along with co-captain Jack Viney and Jack Trengove.

Key: A pivotal ruck duel between Melbourne’s Max Gawn and the man who could take his All Australian spot, Paddy Ryder, whose return after a year-long suspension is a major factor in Port’s revival.

Tip: Port by 27 points.

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast at Cazaly’s Stadium, Cairns, 4.35pm

Head to Head: Bulldogs 6 Suns 2

Last clash: Round 17, 2016 – Bulldogs 15.17 (107) bt Suns 8.11 (59) at Cazaly’s Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.40 Suns $3.00

William Hill: Bulldogs $1.38 Suns $3.00

Another week, another do-or-die game for the reigning premiers. The 11th-placed Bulldogs are hanging to their finals hopes by a thread – they’re one win and a large chunk of percentage outside the eight. Will they rue selling this home game to Cairns, which surely gives the struggling Suns a leg up? Gold Coast’s finals ambitions are shot but coach Rodney Eade’s future depends on showing some ticker for the rest of the season. Gary Ablett is out of action again for the Suns.

Key: Can the Dogs kick a winning score? The loss of Jake Stringer (hamstring) further depletes a misfiring forward line which is ranked third last for scoring this season, ahead of only Freo and Carlton.

Tip: Bulldogs by 18 points

Sydney v St Kilda at SCG, 7.25pm

Head to Head: Swans 134 Saints 77 drawn 3

Last clash: Round 9, 2017 – Swans 18.10 (118) bt Saints 10.8 (68) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Swans $1.25 Saints $4.00

William Hill: Swans $1.25 Saints $3.90

What to make of the Saints? A week after their exhilarating first half against Richmond, they were terrible in the loss to Essendon. Now they come up against the hottest team in the league, with Sydney riding the wave of nine wins in 10 games. St Kilda haven’t beaten Sydney since 2012 and their last win at the SCG was in 2009. The Saints are only outside the top eight on percentage and, at their best, can challenge the Swans. They need this big scalp.

Key: Lance Franklin kicked four goals earlier this season when the Swans beat St Kilda. In Nathan Brown, Jake Carlisle and Dylan Robertson, the Saints have the defensive firepower to stop the Coleman Medal leader. But if Buddy cuts loose, see ya Saints.

Tip: Sydney by 30 points

Fremantle v Hawthorn at Domain Stadium, 7.40pm

Head to Head: Dockers 8 Hawks 25

Last clash: Round 8, 2016 – Hawks 17.14 (116) bt Dockers 11.9 (75) at Uni of Tasmania Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.87 Hawks $1.93

William Hill: Dockers $2.00 Hawks $1.81

Alastair Clarkson coaches the Hawks for the 300th time, breaking the record set by club legend John Kennedy Snr. While team development is probably more of a focus for Clarkson and Fremantle coach Ross Lyon, the Dockers remain two games plus percentage out of eighth spot. The Hawks are another half a game back. So barring an unlikely late surge, whoever loses is out of the finals picture.

Key: Maybe Lyon should play captain Nat Fyfe one-out in attack. It worked superbly for Geelong last week in their narrow win over Hawthorn, who lacked the personnel and experience in defence to counter Patrick Dangerfield. After kicking a wasteful 5.14 in the derby loss, the Dockers must sharpen their attack.

Tip: Hawthorn by 10 points

SUNDAY, July 23

Richmond v Greater Western Sydney at MCG, 1.10pm

Head to Head: Tigers 5 Giants 2

Last clash: Round 9, 2017 – Giants 11.12 (78) bt Tigers 10.15 (75) at Spotless Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $2.30 Giants $1.62

William Hill: Tigers $2.20 Giants $1.67

With only one win since the bye and ongoing injury worries, the talent-packed Giants suddenly look not quite so big and scary. They are still in better shape than the Tigers, who are coming off a bad loss to the Saints and a regulation win over bottom side Brisbane. It’s third against fifth and whoever wins gains a significant boost heading into the last five rounds. GWS need to re-establish the free-scoring game that marked their start to the season, but the Tigers have one of the best backlines in the AFL.

Key: Dustin Martin was a barometer last week for Richmond – he was inefficient with his disposal in the first half and the Tigers struggled to put Brisbane away. Once he fired, the Lions were no chance. Do the Giants back their talented midfield head-to-head against Martin, Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia, or does Dusty get a tag?

Tip: GWS by 10 points.

Collingwood v West Coast at Etihad Stadium, 3.20pm

Head to Head: Magpies 23 Eagles 24 drawn 1

Last clash: Round 19, 2016 – Magpies 13.13 (91) bt Eagles 11.6 (72) at the MCG

TAB Sportsbet: Magpies $2.25 Eagles $1.66

William Hill: Magpies $2.22 Eagles $1.65

For all their well-documented Melbourne problems, the last time the Eagles visited Etihad Stadium, they enjoyed an outstanding win over the Western Bulldogs. But West Coast have not won successive games since round eight and they badly need this scalp. Like the Eagles, the only thing consistent about Collingwood has been their inconsistency and captain Scott Pendlebury’s absence through injury means a yawning gap in their midfield.

Key: The Eagles have not hit 100 points in a game since round six and they’ve only done it three times this season. Key forward Josh Kennedy kicked three goals last week in his return and West Coast need him to fire in the lead-up to the finals.

Tip: West Coast by 15 points

Brisbane v Carlton at the Gabba, 4.40pm

Head to Head: Lions 16 Blues 15

Last clash: Round 21, 2016 – Lions 15.9 (99) bt Blues 13.17 (95) at the Gabba

Tab Sportsbet: Lions $2.44 Blues $1.56

William Hill: Lions $2.30 Blues $1.60

Carlton, who have the worst attack in the league, take on the AFL’s leakiest defence in a battle of the rebuilds. Brisbane were left ruing below-par games from some of their most-experienced players in Sunday’s loss to Richmond, with Dayne Zorko particularly quiet. Still, the Lions’ outstanding upset win over Essendon last month will remain fresh in their minds and they’ll fancy their chances.

Key: Key forwards Eric Hipwood and Josh Schache are Brisbane’s future. They’ve already shown that it won’t be too long before they are terrorising opposition defenders. Carlton are building their game on the back of a rock-solid defence and this will be a good test for the young Lions.

Tip: Carlton by 24 points.

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