Preview of week one of the AFL finals (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, September 7
First Elimination Final
Melbourne v Geelong at MCG 7.50pm
Head to head: Demons 84 Cats 130 drawn 2
Last clash: Cats 16.4 (100) bt Demons 14.14 (98), R18 at GMHBA Stadium
Last final: Cats 18.8 (116) bt Demons 9.7 (61), 2005 elimination final at the MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Demons $1.74 Cats $2.10
BetEasy: Demons $1.75 Cats $2.10
Melbourne’s 12-year finals wait is over and an intriguing fixture awaits, pitting the league’s best attack (Melbourne) against the best defence (Geelong) in statistical terms. The Demons are ranked top for inside 50s, hit-outs, centre clearances, contested possessions and tackles – all key stats which would worry Geelong boss Chris Scott. But the Cats boast individual riches, particularly in the midfield where celebrated trio Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett and new sensation Tim Kelly loom large. And Geelong have one of the most imposing forwards in the game, Tom Hawkins, whose finals credentials are undoubted. Just how the Demons, who have summoned co-captain Jack Viney from a two-month absence because of a foot injury, handle their nerves in the club’s first finals game in a dozen years remains to be seen.
Key: How can Geelong counter the ruck dominance of Max Gawn? The Cats will pit three-gamer Ryan Abbott against the All Australian in a lopsided battle, but can Geelong’s midfielders shark Gawn’s taps to limit the damage?
Tip: Melbourne by 20 points
SATURDAY, September 8
Second Elimination Final
Sydney v GWS at the SCG 4.20pm
Head to head: Swans 11 Giants 4
Last clash: Swans 11.14 (80) bt Giants 8.12 (60), R22 at Spotless Stadium.
Last final: Giants 12.19 (91) bt Swans 7.13 (55), 2016 qualifying final at ANZ Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Swans $1.74 Giants $2.10
BetEasy: Swans $1.72 Giants $2.15
AFL hierarchy would be loving this: another chapter of a rivalry between the Sydney-based clubs which has developed real meaning – and some hatred. The clubs had remarkably similar home-and-away seasons. The Swans (14 wins) conceded just three more points than the Giants (13 wins, 1 draw), while GWS kicked only 66 more points than their cross-town enemies. Much depends on the output of a host of returning big names: Lance Franklin and Luke Parker for Sydney, and Toby Greene, Zac Williams and Brett Deledio for the Giants. While the Swans duo missed only the last game, Greene, a genuine barometer for his side, has missed three matches because of a hamstring strain and Williams hasn’t played in AFL ranks since rupturing an Achilles tendon in January.
Key: Is Sydney’s megastar Lance Franklin ever not the key? GWS co-captain Phil Davis has proven he’s more than capable of holding the Swan ace in the past and will need to do so again for the Giants to prevail.
Tip: GWS by 10 points
Second Qualifying Final
West Coast v Collingwood at Optus Stadium, 8.10pm
Head to head: Eagles 25 Magpies 24 drawn 1
Last clash: Eagles 15.12 (102) bt Magpies 9.13 (67), R17 at the MCG
Last final: Eagles 10.13 (73) bt Magpies 9.6 (60), 2012 semi-final at the MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Eagles $1.60 Magpies $2.35
BetEasy: Eagles $1.57 Magpies $2.45.
Pre-season, there were long odds on both clubs making the finals, let alone finishing in the top four. But the Eagles banked 16 wins, one more than the Magpies, to set up a juicy final. Collingwood, who won four of their five games outside Victoria this season, will be relying on Brodie Grundy gaining an ascendancy in ruck over Scott Lycett to give the Magpie midfielders, headed by skipper Scott Pendlebury, first-look. West Coast will likely deploy tagger Mark Hutchings on the influential Steele Sidebottom but just how will Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley seek to the counter the stellar intercept marking talents of Eagle defender Jeremy McGovern and his captain and chief defensive rebounder Shannon Hurn? And will Buckley’s gambles on recalled trio Tyson Goldsack, making his AFL comeback after a January knee reconstruction, Adam Treloar and Jeremy Howe pay off?
Key: Can returning West Coast spearhead Josh Kennedy instantly click into top gear after missing the past five matches because of fractured leg? If he does, Magpie Tom Langdon faces a tough task containing the big Eagle.
Tip: West Coast by 21 points.
