Randwick (Kensington) Horse Racing Tips – 8/1/2014

The Kensington track at Randwick will host Sydney racing this Wednesday with a fairly strong seven race card. The weather is fine, the track is good and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

 

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Race One: 2014 ATC Membership On Sale 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Pick of the trial horses is clearly Puzzle (Best Odds: $4.80) so she goes on top for me. Bred to be a good one being by Shamardal out of Court, a multiple Stakes race winner for Clarry Conners a few years ago. He also trains this filly, and gee she looked impressive in winning her lone trial. She looked to pull a bit early on, but when McDonald let her go, she put a margin on them quite comfortably. I’m marking her down as definitely one to watch for the Autumn, because I think she’ll be in the thick of things come Slipper time.
Big Danger: Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $4.60) was a short priced favourite at Gosford a couple of weeks back, and after finding the lead, she kicked hard on the turn and looked home, only to be gunned down in the final few strides. She would have come on from that because that was her first run since mid October.
Roughie: Halo Dancer (Best Odds: $34.00) looked outclassed in the Gimcrack, where she settled back and couldn’t really get into the race. Sent to the paddock and trialled nicely behind Puzzle, finishing second. Doubt she can turn the tables, but from the inside gate, she is an exotic player.

 

$250 Puzzle Free Bet

 

Race Two: Congrats @ Vinery Maiden Handicap 1550m Form Guide

Back Me: Electric Power (Best Odds: $13.00) was the blackbooker all day from the Wyong Magic Millions race meeting. She was very ordinary to begin with and settled further back than anticipated. Nash shoved her into the clear on the home turn, took a little while to wind up, but once she did, she savaged the line late. Up to the 1550m suits, and she is previously city placed in benchmark company.
Big Danger: Bush Pilot (Best Odds: $3.50) probably found the 1800m second up a touch too tough last start, but in saying that, she chased strongly late and was beaten by a potential Group horse in Paederos. Back to 1550m, barrier one, hard to beat.
Roughie: Sharpe Ratio (Best Odds: $19.00) has really caught the eye in two runs back from a break, albeit in much easier company than this. Wound up well late when fifth to Scrutiny at Hawkesbury, then really attacked the post hard at Newcastle. Go back to her previous form and she raced behind Stocky, Houston and Sugar Rush, all of which have performed well in town.

 

$250 Electric Power Free Bet

 

Race Three: Australian Turf Club Handicap (70) 1300m Form Guide

Back Me: Really good race for the three year old fillies here. I got it between impressive last start winners Shamalia and Sense And Reason (Best Odds: $9.00), with a leaning towards the latter, because he really attacked the line late to win and he was crunched in betting, suggesting he has some ability.
Big Danger: Shamalia (Best Odds: $5.00) looked to travel beautifully in the run, just off the pace. Presented into the clear 300m from home, dashed to the front 100m from home and on the line looked like a very good horse. Massive threat.
Roughie: Don’t think she’ll be a roughie, but Forever Loved (Best Odds: $7.50) is a definite chance here. Bolted in on debut at Canterbury, then was outclassed in the Furious behind Bound For Blush and Guelph. Has since spelled, gone to the trials, and looked pretty good in each of her two trials.

 

$250 Sense And Reason Free Bet

 

Race Four: Tab iPhone App Handicap (70) 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Pretty thin race, so going for Transonic (Best Odds: $5.50) here. Contested the fillies races in Adelaide during the Autumn of last year and was ok in the lead up to the Oaks, then was outclassed in the Oaks. She had a good seventh month break and has had two solid runs under her belt now. Up to an ideal trip, senior rider in Bowman booked, drawn well…looks perfectly placed.
Big Danger: Richie’s Bickies (Best Odds: $3.00) wasn’t given the best of rides by Oliver last start at Canterbury. He didn’t really give it much chance, but at the same time, the horse was never a winning chance. Should have finished closer, no doubt, but was never going to trouble the winner. Drops back to midweek level now and onto a bigger track.
Roughie: Emirates Art (Best Odds: $7.50) is on the quick back up after being just fair on Saturday behind Reply Churlish, a mare who is going onto bigger and better things. As we have said many times when doing a preview of the Sydney race meetings, Chris Waller has an unbelievable strike rate when backing up his horses a week later or less.

 

$250 Transonic Free Bet

 

Race Five: Hyland Race Colours Handicap 1150m Form Guide

Back Me: Looks the perfect race for New Divide (Best Odds: $2.80). Had one run back in the Winter, resulting in a second to Murder Of Crows at Canterbury. Spelled, won a trial impressively, then backed it up on the racetrack with a tough and gritty on pace win at Gosford. That will have tuned him right up now and meets a very weak bunch of horses. He has the one with upside, so happy to be with him.
Big Danger: Brown Doubt (Best Odds: $6.50) resumes here after a near nine month break. He was last seen in April when a fast finishing fifth at Kembla behind a handy mare in Monbazillac. Has had two quiet trials to prepare for his first up run, and he has performed very well fresh in the past.
Roughie: Mr Nicko (Best Odds: $15.00) is a hit and miss galloper for the astute Newcastle trainer Darren Smith. He was last seen early last month on his home track and he was given a torrid ride, sitting four and five wide with no cover from a middle draw. He loomed to win 200m from home, but the hard run told. He has been freshened up since and can run a race after a little break.

 

$250 New Divide Free Bet

 

Race Six: Instagram @ATC-Races Handicap 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value and putting the third emergency Shawano (Best Odds: $19.00) on top. Yes, he is still a maiden, but he has contested some very good races against some very good horses, including Proisir and It’s A Dundeel. Resumed at Hawkesbury and after settling a long way back, he absolutely rattled home to finish a close up third. That is the key to him- 1400m and a big track with clear air, which is what he’ll get here provided he gains a start.
Big Danger: The pace might not have been too hot, but Daline (Best Odds: $4.00) did sit out three wide for the duration in the race won by Pleiades. It was a leader dominated affair, but she did sit out there, which isn’t easy at Randwick. She tumbles in class, and draws to get a soft run, which should offset carrying the topweight.
Roughie: Jacinta (Best Odds: $4.80) is crying out for further than 1200m and she gets that here. Bolted in first up at Canberra, then placed behind Arrowette at Canterbury, then at Randwick ran third to Target In Sight. She is at her best when she has a bunny to chase, and she should get that from the beautiful draw.

 

$250 Shawano Free Bet

 

Race Seven: Big Sports Breakfast Handicap (70) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Best bet across Australia for me in Adio (Best Odds: $6.50) provided he gains a start. She has had two runs back in Victoria at Kyneton. She bolted in on debut, then sat a fair way back and showed some real grit to get the job done at her following outing, prompting Team Hawkes to send her North. She looks a real up and comer and I’m keen she can get the job done.
Big Danger: Taree mare Shazza’s Bubbles (Best Odds: $5.50) has earned her chance in town after a couple of spank jobs on her home track, the latest of which came on December 22, winning by four lengths with 58.5kg and running really good time. Strikes a decent little race, but she is capable.
Roughie: Girls On Film (Best Odds: $13.00) was one of many horses who went to the line untested in that very messy race won by Pillow Talk. In saying that, the form out of that race has held up really, with the third horse winning and Xatel Ekwa running a decent race. Has won second up in the past, drawn well again, and on a bigger track, she may get normal luck to figure in the finish.

 

$250 Adio Free Bet

 

Best Bet: Adio

Next Best: New Divide

Best Roughie: Shawano

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 10, 15

Leg Four: 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment= 5.10% of the dividend if successful.

 

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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