I’m convinced one of the past Geelong and Melbourne Cup winners – Americain or Dunaden – will win tomorrow’s Caulfield Cup, despite the “horror” wide barriers, and of course, the top weight of 58kgs that comes with their internationally-acknowledged rating.

I’m putting Americain – an outrageous $21.00 in early betting – on top, and praying that he can come over and get cover behind something that can drag him into the race going up the hill around the back. Yes, I could be accused of sipping on too much French champagne, but my “cover” selection will be Dunaden, who after an aborted Arc de Triomphe campaign, has a real sense of timing about him for this Spring. In fact, the stable could hardly contain its expectation in Melbourne this week over how well Dunaden is travelling on the training track.

Dunaden will jump from the outside gate, but like Americain, I think he’ll be able t o get across and find a “spot” – and here’s my thinking! So many runners drawn near the inside will hunt up early knowing Jimmy Cassidy will come charging across from an outside gate on favourite Glencadem Gold to try and find the front without burning too much gas. For that reason, I believe the first 400m will be strong before the breaks go on, which should allow enough time and room for the French stars to get across and find some sort of cover.

I lean to Americain because he is a much bigger and stronger horse, and while maybe not having the dash and acceleration of Dunaden, this will be a Cup where the heat goes right on at the 1000m, so Americain will have enough time to wind up and charge into the finish.
Dunaden, and the local mare Lights of Heaven have both been heavily backed on Luxbet, with the latter toppling from $17.00 going into the barrier draw into a $10.00 fourth favourite, and destined to jump even shorter.

Glencadam Gold had been very well tried early, but after drawing a very wide gate, punters shied away, yet as soon as the well-weighted front-running star hit $5.00 they came charging back in!

Either way, this is the strongest Caulfield Cup field in many years, and such the value is enormous. My advice would be to back one, and save around a few others at “value” prices!

CAULFIELD CUP: 1. AMERICAIN; 2. DUNADEN; 3. GLENCADEM GOLD

Here’s a snap-shot of how I see the big day:

MY CAULFIELD CUP TIP: AMERICAIN: The biggest value in the field at a huge price, from $21.00 into $19.00. Will be ridden quieter like the star he was in the Spring of 2010, and been specifically set for the Cups double. Just wants cover from the wide gate to be in the finish, and no risk he can carry the weight!

MY BEST BET: EMOTIONAL CIRCUS (Randwick R8): Talented back-marker who h it the line hard despite having little luck in the stronger Group 2 Premiere a fortnight ago, and even better placed here carrying 1.5kg less at Listed level!

MY BEST VALUE BET: ALTAR (Caulfield R6): Talented mare resuming in suitable sprint race. Love it when Darley switch states early in a horse’s prep. Trialled beautifully for this, and with good speed on, can get home over the top at big odds!

MY LAY: DECEMBER DRAW (Caulfield R8): Not a bold lay considering the Cup’s wide market and big competitive field, but he’s on the second line of betting, yet should be double that price. In such a quality high pressure race, several others will be stronger on the 2400m line.

BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (Caulfield R8): Real sense of timing and trip about this mare for the Cup, and she’s been sensationally backed before and after the barrier draw from $17.00 into $1 0.00 and likely to jump shorter!