PREVIEW OF AFL ROUND-THREE MATCHES (ALL TIMES AEST):
FRIDAY, April 6:
Carlton v Collingwood at MCG, 7:50pm
Head to Head: Blues 127 Magpies 123 drawn 4
Last clash: Round 7, 2017 – Blues 12.7 (79) bt Magpies 8.8 (56) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet odds: Blues $2.60 Magpies $1.50
William Hill: Blues $2.50 Magpies $1.55
Both teams are desperate for a win after starting the season with back-to-back losses. If the Magpies slip to 0-3, the pressure will build again on coach Nathan Buckley, who was considered lucky to earn a contract extension last season. Collingwood were brave in last week’s defeat to GWS, but they simply can’t afford to lose this one. The Blues welcome back star ruckman Matthew Kreuzer and recruit Matthew Kennedy, while the Magpies have recalled Mason Cox and Ben Reid.
Key: How the Magpies cover the loss of Darcy Moore (hamstring). The swingman can fill a key hole in defence or attack but, without him, Collingwood will need others to step up.
Tip: Magpies by 25 points
SATURDAY, April 7:
Port Adelaide v Brisbane at Adelaide Oval, 1:45pm
Head to Head: Power 17 Lions 15 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 13, 2017 – Power 18.13 (121) bt Lions 12.9 (81) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet odds: Power $1.07 Lions $8.50
William Hill: Power $1.07 Lions $8.50
It’s still early days, but the Power have already shot into premiership favouritism in some betting markets after wins over Fremantle and Sydney. Former Lions captain Tom Rockliff made a high-profile switch to the Power during the off-season, but he will be looking to improve on last week’s nine-disposal effort against the Swans. The Lions have been gallant in losses to St Kilda and Melbourne, but face an uphill battle to snap their four-game losing streak against the Power. The Lions have been bolstered by the return of Mitch Robinson from suspension.
Key: Ruck battle. With star Port ruckman Paddy Ryder still injured, Brisbane tap specialist Stefan Martin has the chance to dominate part-timers Charlie Dixon and Justin Westhoff. If he can give Brisbane’s midfield the edge, an upset victory could follow.
Tip: Power by 48 points
Melbourne v North Melbourne at MCG, 2:10pm
Head to Head: Demons 83 Kangaroos 76 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 19, 2017 – Kangaroos 11.10 (76) bt Demons 10.12 (72) at Bellerive Oval
Tab Sportsbet odds: Demons $1.33 Kangaroos $3.35
William Hill: Demons $1.33 Kangaroos $3.35
To say the Kangaroos possess the recent wood over Melbourne would be an understatement. North Melbourne have won their past 17 matches against the Demons – a streak that started in round nine, 2007. But Melbourne appear to be on the verge of ending that rut, with just four points separating the teams in their most-recent meeting. North last week defied wooden spoon predictions to thrash St Kilda, while Melbourne coughed up a 42-point lead against Brisbane, before regaining their composure to post a 26-point victory.
Key: Battle of the forwards. Kangaroos spearhead Ben Brown booted six goals last week. Demons forward Jesse Hogan kicked five. The shootout between the pair could very well decide the result.
Tip: Demons by 19 points
Gold Coast v Fremantle at Optus Stadium, 4:35pm
Head to Head: Suns 2 Dockers 6 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 20, 2017 – Dockers 12.18 (90) bt Suns 10.7 (67) at Subiaco Oval
Tab Sportsbet odds: Suns $2.75 Dockers $1.45
William Hill: Suns $2.80 Dockers $1.44
Gold Coast are riding a wave of momentum with a 2-0 start to the season under new coach Stuart Dew. But let’s be real – they have hardly beaten top-quality opponents, with North Melbourne and Carlton expected to struggle this season. Gold Coast’s chances of notching a third-straight win have been hampered by selling this ‘home’ game to Fremantle, who will enjoy home-ground advantage. However, the quicker-than-expected return of Pearce Hanley from a shoulder dislocation will help their cause. The Dockers were impressive in last week’s shock win over Essendon, with the form of captain Nat Fyfe and veteran David Mundy particularly pleasing.
Key: Stopping the supply to Tom Lynch. The Gold Coast forward booted eight goals last week against Carlton. But if his supply dries up, Gold Coast will struggle to kick a winning score.
Tip: Dockers by 6 points
Sydney v GWS at SCG, 7:25pm
Head to Head: Swans 9 Giants 4 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 17, 2017 – Swans 14.12 (96) bt Giants 12.11 (83) at Spotless Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Swans $1.65 Giants $2.25
William Hill: Swans $1.70 Giants $2.15
The Giants suffered a major blow in last week’s win over Collingwood when star midfielder Tom Scully broke his ankle, ruling him out for months. And Toby Greene (hamstring) will need another week on the sidelines. Sydney were given a wake-up call in last week’s home loss to Port Adelaide. The return of Sam Reid from a hamstring injury is a welcome addition.
Key: Stopping Buddy. Swans spearhead Lance Franklin has been in hot form, kicking 12 goals across the opening two rounds. If he gets going again, GWS will find it hard to come out on top.
Tip: Giants by 2 points
St Kilda v Adelaide at Etihad Stadium, 7:25pm
Head to Head: Saints 15 Crows 25 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 12, 2017 – Crows 16.15 (111) bt Saints 7.12 (54) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet odds: Saints $3.25 Crows $1.35
William Hill: Saints $3.20 Crows $1.35
How long is St Kilda’s rebuild going to take? It’s been six years since they last played finals, and that drought is unlikely to be broken this year if their performance against North Melbourne is anything to go by. That 52-point defeat has raised major alarm bells, and they face a tough task to silence the doubters against a powerful Adelaide outfit. The Crows exacted a small slice of grand-final revenge last week with their 36-point win over Richmond, and welcome back Tom Lynch and Richard Douglas. The Saints dropped Koby Stevens, Jack Steele and Hunter Clark.
Key: Will a rocket from Saints coach Alan Richardson be enough to fire up his troops? If it’s not, they could be set for another ugly loss.
Tip: Crows by 31 points
SUNDAY, April 8
Richmond v Hawthorn at MCG, 1:10pm
Head to Head: Tigers 86 Hawks 70 Drawn 0
Last clash: Round 20, 2017 – Tigers 13.15 (93) bt Hawks 9.10 (64) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet odds: Tigers $1.60 Hawks $2.35
William Hill: Tigers $1.65 Hawks $2.25
Hawthorn triumphed in a one-point thriller on Monday against Geelong to be 2-0 for the season. But the win came at a cost, with star veteran Shaun Burgoyne to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury, ending his streak of 107 successive games. The Hawks will also be without James Sicily (suspension) and Ryan Schoenmakers (injured). Star Tigers midfielder Dustin Martin booted five goals last week, but it wasn’t enough to stop his side sliding to a 36-point loss to Adelaide.
Key: Supply. The Tigers generated just 49 inside-50m entries last week – not nearly enough to sink a classy side like Adelaide. In contrast, Hawthorn generated 62 inside 50s against the Cats. If Richmond struggle again in this department, they will find it tough against a rejuvenated Hawks outfit.
Tip: Tigers by 19 points
Western Bulldogs v Essendon at Etihad Stadium, 3:20pm
Head to Head: Bulldogs 63 Bombers 94 Drawn 2
Last clash: Round 19, 2017 – Bulldogs 19.13 (127) bt Bombers 13.19 (97) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet odds: Bulldogs $2.75 Cats $1.80
William Hill: Bulldogs $2.80 Bombers $1.44
What’s up with the Bulldogs? In 2016, they won a fairytale flag. Now, there are rumblings of unhappy players at the club. Whatever the problem is, coach Luke Beveridge needs to find a quick solution, otherwise his position could be in jeopardy. The Bulldogs were listless in last week’s 51-point home defeat to West Coast, losing the contested possessions by 26. In an added blow, key defender Jackson Trengove (shoulder) and Jordan Roughead (concussion) have been ruled out. Bombers duo Cale Hooker and Joe Daniher will aim to bounce back after kicking just one goal between them in last week’s loss to Fremantle.
Key: Bulldogs fight or flight? At the moment, it looks like Bulldogs players aren’t buying into what coach Luke Beveridge is saying. Unless they start displaying more fight, this season could get very ugly for them.
Tip: Bombers by 26 points
West Coast v Geelong at Optus Stadium, 4:40pm
Head to Head: Eagles 25 Cats 24 Drawn 1
Last clash: Round 13, 2017 – Eagles 11.17 (83) bt Cats 10.10 (70) at Subiaco Oval
Tab Sportsbet odds: Eagles $2 Cats $1.80
William Hill: Eagles $2 Cats $1.81
Geelong learned an important lesson in their one-point loss to Hawthorn – they can’t just rely on their big three to get them over the line. Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett, and Joel Selwood combined for 95 disposals and four goals but Geelong still fell short. A youthful West Coast looked rejuvenated in their big win last week over the Bulldogs. With Nic Naitanui back weaving his magic in the ruck, West Coast’s midfield looks dangerous all of a sudden – in stark contrast to last season. Excitement machines Willie Rioli and Liam Ryan have just three games between them, but they have already become crowd favourites.
Key: Nic Naitanui. The high-leaping ruckman has transformed West Coast’s midfield in his two games back from a knee reconstruction. If he continues to fire, West Coast have the chance to generate enough scoring opportunities to win games.
Tip: Cats by 3 points
