The Panthers, not for the first time this year, proved the bookmakers and experts wrong when rate as $4.00 chances they defeated the minor premiers and then premiership favourites the Roosters, in the first week of the final. It was the Panthers fifth win in from their past seven matches, three of which have been against top eight sides including a 22 – 16 win over the Bulldogs in round 21. The only losses the Panthers have suffered during this time have been to Melbourne and a luckless one point loss to Manly.
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There’s not one particular aspect of the Panthers game that can be singled out as the secret to their success this year, and there within lays the answer. The Panthers are consistent and competitive across the park. They work to a simple game-plan and use Jamie Soward’s kicking game effectively in both attack and defence. Simple game-plans, executed by a team in form are a hard combination for opposing teams to crack. As displayed against the Roosters, the Panthers are a competitive unit that will not go away. They’ve won five games this year by a margin of two points or less and eight games when the margin is extended to six points. There’s no question that they can match the Dogs here who love a tight contest. Having earned the week off sees the only change to the Panthers line-up being the inclusion of Adam Docker to an extended bench of six.
The Bulldogs started the finals as the outsiders of the final eight after having won only two of the final eight games of the regular season and having to face the Storm in Melbourne, in the first week of the finals.
The Bulldogs however wiped the regular season form aside and responded as Canterbury generally do when backed into a corner, producing arguably their best game of the season to defeat Melbourne 28 – 14, before also ending the season of Manly last week, 18 – 17.
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The Dogs have got off to great starts in each of the above two games and have defended their leads with typically stout Bulldog defence. Worryingly though, the Bulldogs have been failing to take advantage of theses good starts and in their past seven second half performances, have only posted a combined total of sixteen points. Against a team such as Penrith that keep coming for the entire eighty minutes, more than a good start is required here.
Whilst most teams would opt for the week off, the Bulldogs are one team that probably wouldn’t and backing up for their third straight final shouldn’t bother the uncompromising side. The Bulldogs seldom win pretty and have only posted more than 18 points per game twice since 19 this year.
Like the Panthers, the Bulldogs will be at full strength after Josh Jackson was cleared of a chicken wing tackle in last week’s game.
HEAD TO HEAD
The Panthers have won both of their games against the Bulldogs this year, once at ANZ and once at Sportingbet Stadium, by margins of 6 and 2 points. The total match points in those games were 38 and 36 points and with both teams averaging less than 20 points per game in the past two months, the Total Match Points line of 36.5, whilst low, could still remain out of reach. The Bulldogs are thriving under the pressure of finals football but punters have burned a number of times this year when underestimating the Panthers and $2.20 on offer about a team that had the week off, seems too good to pass up. Especially when considering that after the week off, they should be finishing hard whereas the Bulldogs have struggled in second half performances in the past month.
TIP: PANTHERS 1 – 12
First Try Scorer –
Panthers – James Segeyaro $17.00, Josh Mansour $11.00
Bulldogs – Mitch Brown $9.50, Josh Morris $14.00
Teams:
Penrith Panthers:
1 Matt Moylan
2 Josh Mansour
3 Dean Whare
4 Jamal Idris
5 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6 Will Smith
7 Jamie Soward
8 Sam McKendry
9 James Segeyaro
10 Brent Kite
11 Sika Manu
12 Matt Robinson
13 Nigel Plum
Interchange
14 Adam Docker
15 Jeremy Latimore
16 Ben Murdoch-Masila
17 Lewis Brown
18 Kevin Naiqama
19 Sam Anderson
Coach: Ivan Cleary
Canterbury Bulldogs:
1 Sam Perrett
2 Corey Thompson
3 Josh Morris
4 Tim Lafai
5 Mitch Brown
6 Josh Reynolds
7 Trent Hodkinson
8 Aiden Tolman
9 Michael Ennis (c)
10 James Graham
11 Josh Jackson
12 Tony Williams
13 Greg Eastwood
Interchange
14 Reni Maitua
15 Dale Finucane
16 David Klemmer
17 Frank Pritchard
19 Moses Mbye
20 Harlan Alaalatoa
Coach: Des Hasler
News:
Retired Canterbury premiership-winning captain Andrew Ryan rates James Graham as one of the most complete footballers to ever pull on a Bulldogs jersey.
Ryan, who captained the NRL club to their 2004 premiership victory, has played alongside some of the great forwards of the past decade in Sonny Bill Williams, Steve Price, Willie Mason, Nathan Hindmarsh and Mark O’Meley, but says he hasn’t seen a player quite like Graham.
Canterbury will need to appoint a new captain next season to replace the departing Michael Ennis and Ryan has endorsed the English star as an “inspirational” option.
Ryan played under Queensland and Test prop Price when he first moved to Belmore from Parramatta and believes Graham has a similar ability to lead.
“He’s outstanding. He’s got everything,” Ryan told AAP.
“He’s a competitor, he carts the ball up hard, he’s aggressive, he defends hard and then his ball playing ability.
“The thing I love about him the most is his never-say-die attitude.
“They’ve got plenty of leaders … but you can see him on the field. He’s a big talker, certainly motivates the guys. I know they love playing alongside him and training alongside him.
“He’s already been a leader for England and he’s a super player.”
Graham is the firm favourite to replace Ennis, however there are other well-credentialed candidates including Frank Pritchard, who was actually co-captain of the club this year before he suffered a serious pectoral injury in the early rounds.
Trent Hodkinson and Aiden Tolman are others who would come into contention.
However, Graham’s rousing addresses to his team have been captured by the television coverage in recent weeks and the body language of the players around him suggests they’re all buying into the messages being delivered by the 29-year-old.
Ryan has also gone into bat for Ennis – with the controversial hooker copping a barrage of criticism in recent weeks for his baiting of opposition players.
Asked if Ennis could potentially retire from rugby league without many friends, Ryan said the Bulldogs skipper had the support and respect of the playing group and that’s all that matters.
“I guess everyone who plays alongside him, they know the kind of guy he is,” said Ryan, who played with Ennis for three seasons at Canterbury.
“It doesn’t look like (controversy) has affected him. He’s a winner, he wants to win, so he does whatever it takes.”
