One month left of gritty, determined football and the 2012 top eight will be decided. 13 teams (14 if you include the Roosters) are still in the hunt for a spot in September, with Canterbury absolutely flying at present, with ten wins on the trot. But teams such as South Sydney, Melbourne and Manly are right on their tail for the 2012 premiership.
Here is my guide as to whether or not your team will be playing finals football.
Canterbury
They have been the benchmark over the past two-three months. They were electric in the opening 25-30 minutes on Saturday against Newcastle and had the game wrapped up by then. However, they only scored a penalty goal in the 80th minute after leading 24-0, so coach Des Hasler could be slightly concerned with that. They’ll have a chance to rectify that over the next month with games against average teams. They are my tip to win the comp. Their defense has been incredible this season and the forwards have really come of age eg Pritchard, Tolman and the British import James Graham. They are the team to beat.
South Sydney
The feel good story of 2012, no matter where they finish. For the first time in a long time, South Sydney supporters are getting genuinely excited about their team. They have won their last five, but the real test was last Sunday against the Titans. The previous four weeks they were up against inferior sides and duly saluted, but the Titans were red hot and were at home. Souths were still without Inglis and Luke yet pulled out plenty for a four point win. In saying that, they do have a tough run home, starting on Friday night against Manly. Under the new finals system, a top four spot is vital. Hopefully they pull out enough to achieve that.
Melbourne
Over the past couple of months, they have looked like a very tired team, with their Origin players struggling to back up. They needed a confidence boost and they certainly got that last weekend against a very ordinary Penrith outfit. The 46-6 scoreline flattered the Panthers, but we saw the real Melbourne Storm, with Cronk, Slater and Smith back to their brilliant best. Any team that has those three in it should be considered very highly. They might be turning the corner.
Manly
We all hate Manly, but gee they are chugging along beautifully. They aren’t winning pretty, but they are just getting the job done. For mine, they still haven’t quite clicked together yet, but Cherry-Evans produced his best game so far this year last weekend against the Cowboys in what was one of the games of the season so far. When they do eventually click, they are going to be awfully hard to beat.
Cronulla
I’m not sold on the Sharks. They have been very poor recently but returned to some sort of form on Sunday with a 45-4 thumping of the Warriors with Carney and Gallen both producing outstanding performances in their comeback matches. I question that form though because the Warriors have been dreadful over the past few weeks. You’ll get a guide to how serious the Sharks are as a premiership contender over the next few weeks with several tough games ahead for them.
North Queensland
Despite losing their past couple, the Cowboys have been playing some outstanding football. They just got outplayed in the last 20 minutes against the Dogs before putting up a brave effort against Manly last Saturday night in a tight 8-6 defeat. They appear to have a relatively comfortable couple of games ahead for them and if they secured a home final, they’d be near unbeatable up there. And it helps when you have J Thurston in your team as well.
Brisbane
I’ll make bold call and say that the Broncos will miss the eight. They have a very, very tough run home and quite simply, they have played some absolutely disgraceful footy of late. The problem with them is that they just don’t have anything in attack. If I was coach Anthony Griffen, I’d punt Peter Wallace, because he is just so out of form at the moment. The only time they can score is off 50/50 kicks, and that won’t get them very far at all in this competition. Improvement is dramatically required from them.
Gold Coast
The Titans have been playing so well of late, despite losing 22-18 on Sunday to the Bunnies. Prior to this, they had produced some outstanding football over the past month, largely thanks to halfback Scott Prince taking the line on. He is a great ball player, but I think he is at his lethal best when he runs the ball. That was the reason, I think, that the tigers won the 2005 premiership. They should win two of their last four games and finish on 26 points. To finish in the top eight, they will need other results to go their way, but if they do make it, they should be respected because their forward pack is one of the best in the comp and the likes of Prince and Idris are firing at the right time.
West Tigers
Despite winning on Monday night against Parramatta, I have real concerns for the Tigers. A 51-26 scoreline doesn’t say a great deal about both teams. Every set of six, it looked like both sides would score. The Tigers can be guilty of playing side-to-side football, which was evident against Souths hence they got thumped 32-6. There were signs of improvement on Monday night, with the side, at times, playing down the middle, with Keith Galloway producing a superb comeback game. They have a very tough run home and could be in slight trouble of playing finals footy, which would be an ordinary result for all concerned given how strong their squad is.
Newcastle
The Knights were chugging along nicely before last weekend where the Bulldogs showed them how far off the pace the novocastrians are. The people of Newcastle were expecting big things thanks to Nathan Tinkler taking over and luring several local boys back home and with Wayne Bennett at the helm, a third premiership for the Hunter was talked about. But realistically, it was going to be near impossible for the supercoach to weave his magic towards a title in his first season. They’ll be a force in the next two years, but not in 2012.
Canberra
The golden rule when betting on the Nrl is never back Canberra head-to-head if they are under $1.80 because they are the definition of hot and cold. One week, they look so brilliant eg against the Sharks, then seven days later they got thumped 36-6 by Newcastle. The key to the Raiders is the fact they have a relatively easy run home, with games against the Panthers, Roosters, Dogs and Warriors, with all except the Dogs looking winnable games. Wouldn’t rule them out to make the eight.
St George Illawarra
They have been a team that prides itself on its defence, but in 2012, it has been, at times, just absolutely disgraceful. They were very poor on Friday night against the Roosters, with a couple of very soft tries handed to their opponents. On paper, they have a very easy run home, but it’s hard to follow them with confidence at the moment.
The other teams, Warriors, Roosters, Penrith and Parramatta cannot make the eight, although the Warriors and Roosters mathematically can if they win and results go their way.
My final eight prediction:
1. Canterbury
2. Melbourne
3. South Sydney
4. Manly
5. North Queensland
6. Cronulla
7. Brisbane
8. Gold Coast
