For the first time since 2003, Queensland will head into Game III of the State Of Origin with no hope of winning the series.
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Queensland travelled to Sydney for Game II minus regular starters Cooper Cronk and Corey Parker. They also had injury clouds hovering over Greg Inglis and Billy Slater however the Queensland side showed why they were shooting for their ninth consecutive series, matching the NSW outfit in a physical first forty minutes that, through two penalty goals to Qld’s Johnathan Thurston, saw them lead 4 – 0 at the break.
Seventeen minutes into the second half, Queensland were dealt a massive blow as their injury toll grew longer still. Winger Brent Tate left the field after damaging his AC ligament in his knee, an injury that has ended his season and possibly his career.
It was Tate’s side of the field that NSW’s halfback Trent Hodkinson was able expose in the 73rd minute when he crossed for the winning, and only try of the match.
Disappointed that their reign has ended, Queensland will be determined to prevent a NSW series white-wash – especially in front of their home crowed.
Queensland will welcome back Cooper Cronk who missed the second game and most of the first after suffering a broken arm in the tenth minute of Game I. His absence has been sorely missed with the Maroons only being able to manage one try without their regular halfback.
Queensland has scored 21, 34 and 16 points on the last three occasions that the final game of the series has been played at Suncorp. With Cronk back in the starting line up and the pressure, to a certain degree off them, the points may come a little easier for the Maroons in this game.
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NEW SOUTH WALES
The big State Of Origin monkey that had clung to New South Wales’ back for eight years was finally prised off when NSW recorded a tenacious 6 – 4 win over Queensland in Game II three weeks ago in Sydney.
New South Wales knew what was at stake, as did Queensland, and both teams seemed reserved to chance their arm, resulting in a torrid arm-wrestle that wasn’t decided until the 73rd minute of the game with Trent Hodkinson scoring his first Origin try.
The relief was etched on each of the New South Welshman’s faces during the post-match celebration and although the mood in the camp heading into this game will be an enjoyable and buoyant one, they mustn’t lose the focus and commitment that they’ve displayed in the first two matches.
As history shows though, that will be a tough taks.
Only on four of eleven occasions that the Origin series has been decided heading into the final game, has the winning team of the first two games been successful in making it a clean-sweep.
James McManus comes onto the wing for the injured Will Hopoate whilst centre Josh Morris – a prolific try-scorer for the Blues, has been named in to return after missing Game II.
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THE WRAP
The first two games of this year’s Origin have only produced a combined total of 30 points – Queensland have only crossed twice and were kept scoreless in game two, a credit to the Blues defensive.
With the Series now decided though, expect to see each side chance their arm a little more than what we’ve seen up until this match.
All bar one (last year’s, when the series was still alive), of the past five Game III matches has produced 40 points or more. The past three final games played at Suncorp have also exceeded this total – so the current Total Match Points line of 37.5, could prove to be value at $2.00 to break that mark.
Darius Boyd scored the first try in Origin I and another in the second half of that match, taking his tally to five tries from the past three Origin games played at Suncorp. Just can’t ignore the $9.00 on offer for him again to be the first again here nor the same price being offered for Greg Inglis, Origin’s highest try-scorer. They are $2.00 and $2.10 respectively to score anytime during the match.
From a NSW betting perspective Jarryd Hayne, MoM in Game I, has been their go to man and with the possibility of a more open game, Hayne should get the opportunity to display his elusive running skills – he is $10 (1st Try scorer) and $2.37 (anytime during the match).
Queensland will still have a lot to prove here and being a champions side that they are, will bounce back to demonstrate that their dominance over NSW has only hit a momentary snag.
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Likely Teams:
Queensland:
1. Billy Slater, 2. Darius Boyd, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin Hodges, 5. Will Chambers, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Jacob Lillyman, 9. Cameron Smith, 10. Nate Myles, 11. Aidan Guerra, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker, 14. Daly Cherry-Evans, 15. Ben Te’o, 16. Matt Gillett, 17. David Taylor, 18th man: Josh McGuire, 19th man: Michael Morgan
NSW:
1. Jarryd Hayne, 2. James McManus, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Josh Reynolds, 7. Trent Hodkinson, 8. Paul Gallen, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Aaron Woods, 11. Ryan Hoffman, 12. Beau Scott, 13. Greg Bird, 14. Trent Merrin, 15. Boyd Cordner, 16. James Tamou, 17. Luke Lewis
