The Panthers, not for the first time this year, proved the bookmakers and experts wrong when rate as $4.00 chances they defeated the minor premiers and then premiership favourites the Roosters, in the first week of the final. It was the Panthers fifth win in from their past seven matches, three of which have been against top eight sides including a 22 – 16 win over the Bulldogs in round 21. The only losses the Panthers have suffered during this time have been to Melbourne and a luckless one point loss to Manly.
There’s not one particular aspect of the Panthers game that can be singled out as the secret to their success this year, and there within lays the answer. The Panthers are consistent and competitive across the park. They work to a simple game-plan and use Jamie Soward’s kicking game effectively in both attack and defence. Simple game-plans, executed by a team in form are a hard combination for opposing teams to crack. As displayed against the Roosters, the Panthers are a competitive unit that will not go away. They’ve won five games this year by a margin of two points or less and eight games when the margin is extended to six points. There’s no question that they can match the Dogs here who love a tight contest. Having earned the week off sees the only change to the Panthers line-up being the inclusion of Adam Docker to an extended bench of six.
The Bulldogs started the finals as the outsiders of the final eight after having won only two of the final eight games of the regular season and having to face the Storm in Melbourne, in the first week of the finals.
The Bulldogs however wiped the regular season form aside and responded as Canterbury generally do when backed into a corner, producing arguably their best game of the season to defeat Melbourne 28 – 14, before also ending the season of Manly last week, 18 – 17.
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The Dogs have got off to great starts in each of the above two games and have defended their leads with typically stout Bulldog defence. Worryingly though, the Bulldogs have been failing to take advantage of theses good starts and in their past seven second half performances, have only posted a combined total of sixteen points. Against a team such as Penrith that keep coming for the entire eighty minutes, more than a good start is required here.
Whilst most teams would opt for the week off, the Bulldogs are one team that probably wouldn’t and backing up for their third straight final shouldn’t bother the uncompromising side. The Bulldogs seldom win pretty and have only posted more than 18 points per game twice since 19 this year.
Like the Panthers, the Bulldogs will be at full strength after Josh Jackson was cleared of a chicken wing tackle in last week’s game.
HEAD TO HEAD
The Panthers have won both of their games against the Bulldogs this year, once at ANZ and once at Sportingbet Stadium, by margins of 6 and 2 points. The total match points in those games were 38 and 36 points and with both teams averaging less than 20 points per game in the past two months, the Total Match Points line of 36.5, whilst low, could still remain out of reach. The Bulldogs are thriving under the pressure of finals football but punters have burned a number of times this year when underestimating the Panthers and $2.20 on offer about a team that had the week off, seems too good to pass up. Especially when considering that after the week off, they should be finishing hard whereas the Bulldogs have struggled in second half performances in the past month.
TIP: PANTHERS 1 – 12
First Try Scorer –
Panthers – James Segeyaro $17.00, Josh Mansour $11.00
Bulldogs – Mitch Brown $9.50, Josh Morris $14.00
Teams:
Penrith Panthers:
1 Matt Moylan
2 Josh Mansour
3 Dean Whare
4 Jamal Idris
5 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6 Will Smith
7 Jamie Soward
8 Sam McKendry
9 James Segeyaro
10 Brent Kite
11 Sika Manu
12 Matt Robinson
13 Nigel Plum
Interchange
14 Adam Docker
15 Jeremy Latimore
16 Ben Murdoch-Masila
17 Lewis Brown
18 Kevin Naiqama
19 Sam Anderson
Coach: Ivan Cleary
Canterbury Bulldogs:
1 Sam Perrett
2 Corey Thompson
3 Josh Morris
4 Tim Lafai
5 Mitch Brown
6 Josh Reynolds
7 Trent Hodkinson
8 Aiden Tolman
9 Michael Ennis (c)
10 James Graham
11 Josh Jackson
12 Tony Williams
13 Greg Eastwood
Interchange
14 Reni Maitua
15 Dale Finucane
16 David Klemmer
17 Frank Pritchard
19 Moses Mbye
20 Harlan Alaalatoa
Coach: Des Hasler
News:
Penrith coach Ivan Cleary expects Trent Hodkinson to be back firing at his best in Saturday’s NRL grand final qualifier, despite the Canterbury star’s recent injury woes.
Hodkinson has been battling to overcome a knee injury that he picked up before kicking the winning field goal in last week’s thrilling one-point win over Manly.
The NSW and Bulldogs halfback had not trained earlier in the week because of the problem, but ran strongly in Friday morning’s captain’s run.
“Most players I think this time of year are running around with injuries,” Cleary said.
“But come the big stage in the big games, everyone’s a 100 per cent.”
Hodkinson has already undergone two knee operations in recent years – a reconstruction in 2008 and stem cell surgery in 2012 – and is set to go under the knife again in the off-season.
Bulldogs coach Des Hasler was confident his first-choice goalkicker would be fit for the ANZ Stadium clash and dismissed suggestions his injury had been a distraction.
“Trent knows what he’s about – he’s a pretty experienced campaigner,” Hasler told Sky Sports Radio’s Big Sports Breakfast on Friday.
“It’s positive disruption if anything. Just getting you right, rest, rehabilitation and recovery.”
No coach knows more about injury disruptions than Cleary, who lost some big names at the back-end of the season yet still managed to guide the Panthers to their first preliminary final in a decade.
They have beaten the Bulldogs twice this year and had last week off, but are still rank outsiders to win the match for a chance to break their 11-year premiership drought.
“Any time someone writes you off or says you can’t, anyone worth their salt will find a little bit of motivation in that,” Cleary said.
“But it’s certainly not something we’ve focused on or spoken about. It just is how it is.”
Cleary said the two-week turnaround between finals matches has given his side more time to prepare and freshen up after playing 12 games straight.
“You start getting worn down after a while,” he said.
“We feel like we’re prepared – and I guess when you feel like that, you tend to be more relaxed.
“It’s just about the players going out there and settling the score I guess.”
The Panthers have only featured in the playoffs four times the past 12 years – half as many as the Bulldogs. And that’s something that Cleary is wary of.
“As a club, they’re used to this time of year,” he said.
“They’ve been very very successful, particularly through the 80s, and pretty much since then have always been there or there abouts.
“They are in the finals regularly, they’re considered to always be hard opponents.
“Hopefully we can climb to that kind of status the next few years.”
