Winter Championship Series Final 2014 day Tips – Flemington racecourse

The best race meeting Victoria has to offer during the Winter comes around this Saturday at Flemington, with eight series finals races, headed by the $150,000 Listed VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Final (1600m). The two other listed events, both carrying $120,000 prizemoney, are the Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m) and the A.R. Creswick Series Final (1200m).

 

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Race One (12:40) : Taj Rossi Series Final 1600m :

Back Me: Zebulon (Best Odds: $3.90) looks the way to go here. Showed his talent on debut with a closing second to Zeletto (subsequent city placegetter last Saturday). He then came here and was a drifter in betting, but that didn’t stop him from unleashing a powerful finishing burst to comfortably beat his rivals. Meets a near identical field and given how much upside he has, the extra furlong and rise in weight should pose no worries.
Big Danger: Allergic (Best Odds: $10.00) ran second to Zebulon and he was well held by that particular horse, but in saying that, the winner did get on his back for the perfect cart into the straight. Does get a nice little weight pull here and like the top tip, will relish the rise to 1600m.
Roughie: Vuelta (Best Odds: $9.50) was quite good here when winning over the 1400m a few weeks back. He was behind the speed and was bailed away for the early part of the straight, but then Walker shoved into the clear, the horse took a few strides to balance, but once he did, he really attacked the line and was impressive. Has the different form reference, but I certainly wouldn’t rule him out.

 

$700 Zebulon Free Bet

 

Race Two (13:15) : Rivette Series Final 1600m :

Back Me: Tough race to sort out. Going for the topweight in Dig A Pony (Best Odds: $3.20). Kicked off her prep with two impressive wins at Sale and Flemington respectively, then raced here again a fortnight back and was just outgunned by Refulgent, who will go around as a leading chance in the Silver Bowl. That’s the best form reference for this and looms as the one to beat.
Big Danger: Vivi Veloce (Best Odds: $21.00) hasn’t raced since running second to Dig A Pony here on June 14. Dig A Pony did go past her easily and won with a fair bit of ease, but the 4kg weight pull and barrier draw advantage brings her right into contention. Question mark on form as to whether she can turn the tables, but the facts and figures give her a chance.
Roughie: Dancing Rose (Best Odds: $9.00) had the gun run behind the speed at Cranbourne and was bursting to get a run on the turn. As soon as they straightened, the run came, she burst through and sprinted sharply to win. Gets a lovely weight drop and is drawn to get the gun run off the speed, along the with fact she has upside.

Zebulon is our Top Tip at Flemington today
Zebulon is our Top Tip at Flemington today

 

 

Race Three (13:50) : Banjo Paterson Series Final 2600m :

Back Me: Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $11.00) was enormous in getting the job done over this track/distance last time out, sitting three wide throughout. The pace was quite pedantic, but still, to sit three wide with no cover for the journey was a huge effort. Draws beautifully here and still appears to have a stack of upside.
Big Danger: Marksmanship (Best Odds: $4.40) was given an absolute peach steer by Michelle Payne to win last week at Caulfield, saving ground near the inside and timing her run to perfection. Unbeaten since joining the Ciaron Maher camp and there is no reason why he can’t win again from a good gate.
Roughie: Zuma Roc (Best Odds: $6.50) has been quite good since joining the Moody camp, recording an impressive win at this track three back, then working home powerfully at the Valley before being nailed by Rowland and King Of The Dudes in a three way finish. He does get the weight pull on those two here and should be benefited by a more genuine tempo.

 

 

Race Four (14:25) : All Victorian Sprint Series Final 1200m :

Back Me: Cracking edition of this series final. Vain Queen (Best Odds: $1.80) however looks the clear way to go given she just spanked her rivals in a heat of this race a fortnight back when ridden a treat by Katelyn Mallyon. Bossy takes over, drawn the right part of the track and has bounced back to her best form, and that will see her take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Can’t go wrong by winning and that’s what Pillar Of Creation (Best Odds: $10.00) has done at his past couple. He is a very genuine galloper who has been excellent in four runs this time in. First up he ran second to General Peekay down the Flemington straight, then ran third at Sportingbet Park before going to the Valley and desperately lunging late to get the job done in a thrilling finish. He then raced last week at Caulfield and was crunched in betting before duly saluting, aided by a gun ride by Damian Lane. Handles all conditions and looms the main threat.
Roughie: Corsica Lad (Best Odds: $11.00) is the very interesting runner here. Boom gelding for Albury trainer Brett Cavanough who comes to Flemington off the back of two career starts, both resulting in wins, in particular his spanking during the Swan Hill Carnival. Obviously it’s a quantum leap in grade, but he looks very promising.

 

 

Race Five (15:00) : Slickpix/TVN Silver Bowl Series Final 1600m : 

Back Me: Going for some value in Kwanza (Best Odds: $21.00). Handy gelding who showed he has talent in his first prep with a second to his well performed stablemate Worth A Ransom. Spelled after that, gelded, given 10 months off and resumed on the Geelong Synthetic where he looked in need of the run, then went to Mornington and continued to chip away from midfield to get the win in the last couple of strides. He then raced over this track/distance a fortnight back and worked home well from a long way back to run fifth to Refulgent. Has upside and is drawn around some of the leading chances, so he should get a decent cart into the race and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Zebrinz (Best Odds: $7.00) contested the same race mentioned above and had no luck at all, running sixth after getting badly held up behind tired runners in the early part of the straight. Gets on the minimum and should sit a touch closer to the speed. He is another who should represent good value.
Roughie: Mista Spot (Best Odds: $21.00) backs up after running a game fourth to Self Sense at Caulfield last week. He ran well, but got bogged down by the big weight the last little bit, so that tough 2000m run should see him run the Flemington mile out strongly, and drops 4.5kg. Should get the gun run off the speed and loom as a threat.

 

 

Race Six (15:35) : VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Final 1600m :

Back Me: There doesn’t appear to be much speed in the race, so for that reason I’m going with The Cleaner (Best Odds: $8.00). His two runs in Melbourne this time in have been fantastic, running a game second to Limes over the 1400m here, then went to the Valley and was very dominant in leading all the way. He’ll adopt similar tactics here, and one thing we know is that he’ll keep batting away at the same speed and won’t feel the pinch.
Big Danger: Kiwi galloper Ringo (Best Odds: $8.50) made his Australian debut in a heat of this race a fortnight back and looked the winner, only to be beaten by an outstanding ride on our roughie. He should have plenty of upside and will relish the rise up to 1600m. Looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: Akavoroun (Best Odds: $7.00) was given an absolute peach steer by Michelle Payne to win that race mentioned above, hugging the fence throughout, bursting through and kicking on very strongly to win. The gelding did hit the front a touch early last time out, and I think he is better when he has something to chase, and that’s what should eventuate here.

 

 

Race Seven (16:10) : A.R. Creswick Series Final 1200m :

Back Me: Going for some value in Search Squad (Best Odds: $17.00). This gelding is yet to have a break since debuting earlier in the year, but gee he is tough and has the strong form on the board. Three back he beat home Self Sense and Tankster (both subsequent winners), then ran second to By The Grace before filling that same position to Tiny’s Legacy at Sportingbet Park. Back to 1200m is a slight concern, but I’m banking on the fact there appears to be good speed in the race and that he can run over the top of them.
Big Danger: Hard Stride (Best Odds: $9.50) was nominated to run last Saturday for the Monash but they have elected to target the more comfortable race here. He is another of these Ellerton/Zahra horses that is racing very consistently and always earning prizemoney for connections. Attempted to lead all the way at the Valley last start and looked home, but got tired in the last couple of strides and was nailed right on the peg by Kievann. Meets that horse better at the weights and has a better record at Flemington, so I’m confident he can turn the tables and go close to winning.
Roughie: Under The Louvre (Best Odds: $9.00) had his first run for Robert Smerdon as a heavily backed favourite in a heat of this series a fortnight back and just looked in need of the run when fourth to blowout winner Beleeup. He may have also got anchored by the weight on the fresh side, so expect him to go much better second up.

 

 

Race Eight (16:45) : Leilani Series Final 1400m

Back Me: Nautical (Best Odds: $5.50) for me. Trialled brilliantly on her home track at Cranbourne before resuming at the Valley where she had no luck, sitting last and being forced to peel very wide. She worked to the line strongly when balanced up and told me she’ll be winning races this prep, and that’s exactly what she did when racing over this track/distance a fortnight back where she got back again, burst through to hit the front and held out her rivals. Will again get back from the draw, and does rise in weight, but she looks the horse to beat.
Big Danger: La Venta (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed on the Geelong Synthetic (Metro meeting), where she sat outside the speed, took the lead on the turn and kicked clear in the straight to score an impressive fresh victory. Races very well second up, pet distance is 1400m, and her lone run at Flemington she was beaten by Flying Hostess, Crucial and Five All, with the latter two going on to win at Stakes level.
Roughie: Atlantis Dream (Best Odds: $3.80) was backed as if unbeatable at the Valley, and in the end, it was the barrier that beat her. The winner saved all the ground in the world while she had to hook right around the field and was pipped right on the peg by Warwarwick. The depth here isn’t as strong, and she only goes up half a kilo.

 

 

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Best Bet: Race One Number 2 Zebulon

Next Best: Race Four Number 6 Vain Queen

Long Shot: Race Six Number 1 The Cleaner”]

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 12, 13

Leg Two: 1, 4, 11, 12, 14

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 12, 13, 14, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

In the news:

Force Command has not made a habit of winning but trainer Greg Eurell is convinced the multiple stakes placegetter is a better chance than his Winter Championship Final odds suggest.

Rising five-year-old Force Command goes into Saturday’s $150,000 race at Flemington at his fourth run of the campaign and was at $41 in betting on Friday.

“Certainly I think he’ll run better than the odds are probably showing at the moment,” Eurell said.

Force Command was gelded after two disappointing runs in the spring and returned in May, posting a maiden win over 1200m at Sandown in his 12th career start.

He then failed second-up in slow going over 1400m at Sale in a heat of the Winter Championship before finishing fourth, beaten 2-1/2 lengths in his most recent outing in another heat at Cranbourne on June 22.

“His run was a bit awkward last start at Cranbourne,” Eurell said.

“Getting around the turn he seemed to get a bit off balance and then he straightened up and then had another charge for it.

“I don’t think the mile is going to be any problems for him tomorrow and this is the race that we’ve been ultimately aiming to from when he first came in.”

Eurell believes the big track at Flemington should suit Force Command on Saturday.

Force Command was runner-up in the Listed Manfred Stakes and Group Three CS Hayes Stakes as an autumn three-year-old in Melbourne last year and also placed in the Bendigo Guineas and Group Two Phar Lap Stakes during that campaign.

Eurell says Force Command was probably kept a colt too long but believes there is still a bit ahead of the gelding who is only lightly raced.

“He will certainly have to step up to the mark tomorrow in this sort of race,” Eurell said.

“It’s a good strong race with some good quality horses in it, but he’s got a competitive weight as probably quite a few of them have.”

The John Sadler-trained Henwood is the $4.80 TAB fixed odds favourite after opening at $8 on Wednesday.

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