Thousand Guineas day 2012 tips and race previews

Group one racing continues at Caulfield this Wednesday where it’s day two of the Caulfield racing carnival, which is Thousand Guineas Day. There is no standout filly in the $500,000 feature race, run over a mile, which therefore means that betting is a nightmare for punters. Molto Bene is the $4.50 top pick, ahead of Love For Ransom, Lady Of Harrods and Commanding Jewel.

Other feature races are the Debutants Stakes (1000m) for the babies while the mares will fight it out in the Race-Tech Classic (1600m).

Lady Of Harrods winning the Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield - photo by Race Horse Photos Australia

Earlier in the day, the sprinters will strut their stuff in the Heading Out Hair & Beauty Stakes (1200m). Some nice types are engaged there.

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Race One: Superior Food Services Handicap 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be a good thing here in the shape of Isabella Snowflake. Had one start, that was back in June at Flemington and she was very impressive, winning, by over three lengths. On her home track here, should roll forward and prove hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: A majority of the first starters don’t look well suited here, especially Bugsy. He seems a bit short at $10.
Big Danger: The wraps were huge on Get Pronto before his debut and he lived up to those reputations with a thumping win. He looks the only danger to the top pick in a somewhat weak race if you take out these two.
Roughie: Sistine Demon, the close relation to Sistine Angel, is on debut here and has trialled very nicely in readiness for this. Keep an eye on her.

Race Two: Inglis Debutants Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Race experience counts for everything in these two year old races hence Kuroshio goes on top after a very impressive win at Flemington despite showing clear signs of inexperience and greeness. He’ll improve big time from that run and looks hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Hard to determine given there are many first starters.
Big Danger: Overreach is on debut for Gai and Craig Williams and she looked very good in her lone barrier trial at Rosehill, spacing her rivals comfortably. Don’t be surprised if she blows them away here.
Roughie: La Bella Blue looked to trial ok at Cranbourne and is in the astute hands of Robert Smerdon. Any first starter trained by him should always be respected.

Race Three: Bmw Handicap (86) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Dominant is one of those frustrating horses to follow, but he looks to have found a lovely race here. Worked to the line nicely in the Guineas Prelude behind Epaulette and he has been looking for the mile. He gets that here.
Don’t Back Me: No way does Super Cool deserve to be a $3 favourite here. Question marks are around that last start at Flemington because the form surrounding it is debatable.
Big Danger: The big improver is definitely Underestimation. This is the easiest race he has contested for a long time and if he brough his best form here this afternoon, then he is in with a ripping chance at odds.
Roughie: It was ugly, but Rappers Delight got the job done to break his maiden status at Seymour last start. The ability has always been there and now that he has put a win on the board, he may go on with it.

Race Four: Bluecross Community Services Handicap (89) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Clear two horse between Sertorius and Tribal Rock. Based on their last start efforts, I have a slight leaning towards Tribal Rock, because he fair dinkum spanked them at Sale.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the top two.
Big Danger: Sertorius really came of age this time last year, winning everything before going down narrowly in the Kyneton Cup behind Lucky Eighty Eight. Resumed at Ararat and bolted in before going to Moonee Valley and doing much the same. Wide barrier is a worry, but he is flying at the moment and can’t be left out.
Roughie: Cheviot Beach appears the big overs at $17. He was stiff at Moonee Valley behind Tokugawa. That horse came out and ran very well in the Toorak on the weekend. Must include him in exotics.

Race Five: Heading Out Hair & Beauty Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for the consistent Cascabel. He hasn’t won for a while, but he strikes a lovely race for his return to racing. Has trialled twice in preparation for this and has looked good in both. Drawn well, Olly should give him the perfect run and he’ll be right in the finish.
Don’t Back Me: Free Wheeling is the best horse in the race, and although he has trialled well, I just question if he is ready to win first up given he has bigger fish to fry. $4.20 seems a bit thin.
Big Danger: Morant produced a bottler of a run from miles back in the Testa Rossa. He should have won, but just got out of his ground. He has drawn the fence here, so he should be right near the speed and if he has held his form, look out.
Roughie: Sharnee Rose is still a maiden, so that is a worry, but she is very consistent and should be around the money again. She had her chance last start but, if ridden cold, it would not surprise me if she won here.

Race Six: Schweppes Thousand Guineas 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: The reason that Lady Of Harrods has been running out 1200m and beyond is because she keeps getting the perfect…and it looks like she’ll get the perfect run again. Winning form is the best form and she has plenty of pickets next to her name. One thing also is Jamie Mott. He very rarely gets down to 55.5kg, so she must be worth it for him, because that’s a big effort for him to get down to that weight.
Don’t Back Me: Maybe Discreet did the work in the Manifold yet found plenty to win. Just question if that run took some juice out of her in preparation for this race.
Big Danger: Molto Bene has got home beautifully in her two runs leading up to this. She worked to the line very nicely in the Prelude behind Lady Of Harrods and is definitely looking for a mile, maybe more. Deserves to be favourite.
Roughie: Dear Demi is the best filly in Sydney and she shouldn’t be ignored here. Commanding Jewel is finding it hard to win, but she always tries her heart out and keep an eye on Zydeco. I’m declaring her for the Oaks, so look for her to attack the line again.

Race Seven: Race-Tech Classic 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Is it just me or is this a shocking race…Going for a bit of value in the shape of Sister Norma. I thought she was the real eye catcher in the Bairnsdale Cup behind Prizum because she missed the start badly, got checked on the turn and was on one rein throughout yet hit the line better than anything else. If the rain stays away, then she is right in contention and the $17 seems good odds.
Don’t Back Me: Oasis Bloom has the clear best form in the race, but the ride won her the race last start and nothing else. Happy to take her on here.
Big Danger: Star Of Giselle had a soft lead and kicked clear to score a good win last start here. Unbeaten at the mile and has the services of Craig Williams in the saddle. Big threat.
Roughie: Tranquera is one of those mongrel mares for punters. Never wins, but she did that last start when she dropped big time in grade. That might be the confidence boost she needs to go on with it.

Race Eight: McCain Foods Handicap (82) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Steering clear of the favourites and going for value again. This time I have come up with Picture Editor. Loved his first up run at Moonee Valley behind Tokugawa where he sat last, never really saw daylight until late, but when he did, he really hit the line nicely. His form from overseas suggest 2000m and beyond is ideal and if the pace is on, he’ll be finishing the race off better than anything.
Don’t Back Me: Menados was desperately unlucky here two starts back, but he was terrible at Flemington last start behind Fawkner. He’d want to improve a few lengths to feature here.
Big Danger: The great ride of Chad Schofield on Whisper Downs beat Practiced last start. Williams won’t get caught out again on Practiced and I expect him to be a major contender.
Roughie: I would not be surprised if Zuma Roc ran a race here, because he is big, lazy horse and Craig Newitt, the most aggressive, and strongest rider in Australia takes the reins. 

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