Sandown Guineas Tips – 2014

Punters believe leading trainer Darren Weir can add another feature to his spring tally with Stratum Star in Saturday’s Sandown Guineas. Winner of three of his past five starts, Stratum Star is the dominant $2.70 favourite for the Group 3 feature with Rekindled Power on the second line at $4.20. A full brother to Group 2 winner and smart galloper Rekindled Interest, Rekindled Power was impressive in registering his maiden win at Bendigo at his most recent outing, defeating Inauguration by 3.5 lengths with that horse since winning well. Undefeated Adelaide galloper Lord Aspen is $5 with some interest shown in one that finished behind him last start, Ducal Castle at ($8.00). The only other runner under double figure odds being Carless ($9).

 

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1. ZULULAND – S Baster (9) 57kgs
Unfortunately for connections, the son of Fastnet Rock hasn’t lived up to the potential his VRC Produce win or second placing in the G1 Champagne Stakes suggested he had as a 2yo last season.
He has missed a place in each of his six races this campaign the most recent of which was a sixth placing (3.1 lengths) in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase behind Moonovermanhattan.
Led last start but not in the kind of form that could see him take up a similar role here and hold of the challengers.

 

2. STRATUM STAR – K McEvoy (2) 57kgs
Fell a head short of making it three wins on the trot when narrowly defeated by the promising Kermedec in the G3 Carbine Club (1600m) on Derby Day.
Last start’s effort was very good. He was caught wide early and was allowed to slide forward to join the leaders three wide as they straightened for home.
He then made the winner, who had a sweet run in transit, dig deep late to get the better of him.
Hard to fault his form at the moment and the draw should see him position up nicely.

 

3. PETROLOGY – N Hall (13) 57kgs
Didn’t have a great deal of room in the run when sixth (3.7 lengths) behind Stratum Star in the Listed Crown Lager (1400m) at Caulfield before, on Oaks Day, appreciating the bigger Flemington circuit and the step up to 1800m and winning the Listed race for 3yo’s.
Settled in the one/one last start, shouldered clear at the 400m as they flattened for the run home and held off the fast-finishing Chill Party to win by a head.
The drop back to the mile should be countered by the speed of race and big track and whilst he’s improving with each run, from the widest gate just not sure he’s improving at a rate that will see him run this field down from the back of the field

 

4. LORD ASPEN – M Nielson (6) 57kgs
Kept his perfect record intact albeit just, with a narrow in the Listed Hilton Stakes (1400m) on Stakes Day last Saturday.
The Good Journey gelding lobbed in the box and had to dig deep late to hold off the challenge from Orient Line by a neck.
Was given every chance last start and will likely find a similar position here from a good draw but will need to improve again taking on a better class of field over a mile, a distance he tackles for the first time.

 

5. CARELESS – J McDonald (5) 57kgs
Still looking for his maiden win but the colt by Exceed And Excel has produced enough in his recent starts to suggest that registering his first win in a race of this quality his within his reach. After two runs in Sydney, he came to Melbourne and started the 5/1 favourite for the Listed Crown Lager Stakes (1400m) where from three back on the fence turning, he found some traffic at the top straight and just couldn’t match the winner’s – Stratum Star – momentum late, finishing third (1 length).
He then draw the widest gate in the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) settled last and had to circle the field of fifteen as they made the run home, finishing fifth (3.9 lengths).
Was set a task last start but kept closing late. The big track and solid speed here look favourable and from a better draw, may take up a closer position in the run.

 

6. SEENAN – D Moor (7) 57kgs
Won, but not like his 4/5 on price suggested he would, when successful in a BM 70 (1400m) at Seymour, his second win from four starts, before lining up in last Saturday’s Hilton Stakes (1400m).
Settled on the leader’s back from the inside draw during the run but found trouble at the 300m looking to come away from the fence and lost momentum.
The Mick Price trained colt regathered and closed well late, securing sixth (2.2 lengths) behind Lord Aspen.
Probably should’ve finished closer again last start but and $31 in early markets appears generous.

 

7. DUCAL CASTLE – D Stackhouse (1) 57kgs
Finished close up in some smart races as a 2yo and was given a good spell by trainer Peter Moody who then saw the son of Domesday return to racing a winner, taking out a Mornington BM 64 (1200m) under the steadier of 60kgs.
He then lined up in the Listed Hilton Stakes last Saturday and settled between runners just worse than midfield.
Looking to get clear up the straight, he missed a run at the 300m and it wasn’t until they were inside the last furlong that he had clear space in-front of him.
He finished very well to get third (1.2 lengths) behind Lord Aspen who had every chance on the pace.
Always has demonstrated good ability and his last start effort reads well for this.

 

8. CHILL PARTY – B Werner (8) 57kgs
Her first campaign, which consisted of three starts, would’ve suggested a race like this was well beyond him however, since the colt by Nicconi returned from a spell his form has improved sharply. He won a Kyneton Maiden (1469m) and a Wangaratta BM 64 (1590m) both in good style before coming to town and contesting the Listed 1800m race on Oaks Day.
He settled with the tail-enders and had wall of horse in-front of him as they straightened. He had to ease of heels at the 300m and come out from behind the eventual winner Petrology at the 200m before running that horse to a head on the line. Improving with each run and on last start’s performance, would think his opening prince of $41 was well overs.

 

9. REKINDLED POWER – D Dunn (9)
Very well bred colt from the Paul Messara yard who after running third on debut in a Canterbury Maiden, took on smart types such as Kuro and Time For War in the Listed Brian Crowley (1200m), finishing a respectable sixth (4 lengths).
Came to Melbourne and won like the good thing the punters thought him to be, streaking away late to win a Bendigo maiden (1400m) by 3.5 lengths.
Big step up in class here but Sydney run, backed up with a smart win last time out, would be enough to give this Redoute’s Choice colt serious consideration.

 

10. BERISHA – C Parish (12)
He won his maiden at his most recent start – the third of his career, by getting the bob in right on the line in the Kyneton Maiden (1200m) to defeat Roundabout who is winless in five starts.
Had every chance last time out and would think there’s far easier races for him to contest than this one.
11. MOTEL MEMORIES – R Maloney (3)
He chalked up his third win at this third race start with head win Seymour Maiden (1412m) last Sunday after getting every chance in the run.
The quick-back up, rise in grade and under set weights, are all factors that are against him here.

 

 

12. HEY CHARLIE –
Settled back in each of this three runs this campaign, all over 1200m and in Maiden class, and whilst he has worked home well on each occasion, he has found a least a few too good for him in each event.
Still looking for his maiden win and wouldn’t have thought connections would be looking at a race of this nature for the Myboycharlie colt to break his maiden in.

 

 

12. UNGRATEFUL ELLEN – C Williams (11) 55kgs
Closed well but not quick enough for favourite backers when second (neck) as the even money favourite in a BM 70 (1600m) at Hamilton before lining up in the first race of the day on Oaks Day, a RST 70 for fillies and mares over 1700m.
The Grey Swallow filly drew poorly in the big field and settled at the tail of the field, a position she barely improved on in the run home finishing fourteenth and over 6.5 lengths from the winner Allelu. On her last two starts, appears to be aiming way too high here.

 

RACE OVERVIEW
Hard to go past the favourite here, his form is rock solid, however will shop for better value than the $2.70 and go with Careless on top here. He ran fifth to Stratum Star last time out but drew wide and got too far back. From a handier draw today would like to see him settle midfield. His two previous starts over a mile have resulted in good effort including a fifth (1.4 lengths) to Almalad, Brazen Beau and Looks Like The Cat – some of the leading 3yo’s in the country. Always looked as though Ducal Castle will shape up to some good races and he gets his chance to do that here.

1. CARELESS
2. STRATUM STAR
3. DUCAL CASTLE
4. REKINDLED POWER

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