Run To The Roses 2014 form guide, tips, field and odds

Group 1 winner Almalad will make his anticipated return to racing as the favourite for the G3 Run To The Roses at Rosehill this Saturday, opening up in early markets at $3.70. Last year Va Pensiero claimed the San Domenico/Run To The Roses double and this year Hawkes Racing’s Nostradamus, who is on the second line of betting at $5.50, will be out to do the same after he won the San Domenico in good style a fortnight ago. Nostradamus is also entered for the G3 McNeil Stakes in Melbourne where the weather is predicted to be kinder that what it has been in Sydney recently. Godolphin has three runners, Ghibellines, Kumaon and Sarajevo, in the race as the racing operation looks for their fist feature win in Sydney. Sarajevo is the pick of the trio according to the punters with the Lonhro colt quoted a $6.00 ahead of Ghibellines – $13, and Kumaon – $18. Brazen Beau and Hallowed Crown are the two other runners under double figure odds, both opening up in early markets at $7.50.

 Run To The Roses 2014 form guide

Run To The Rose

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1. ALMALAD – T Berry (5) 60kgs

Undefeated galloper from the Waterhouse stable whose last start saw him take out the G1 JJ Atkins (1600) at only his third race start. It was a smart win given he was jumping up from 1200m, settled on the speed from a wide gate and found plenty when challenged by favourite Brazen Beau in the straight to defeat that horse by a head. A horse with plenty of ability and who has drawn ideally in gate five but, he has been assigned 60kgs first up here and surprisingly for a Waterhouse runner, hasn’t trialled in preparation for his return. If he is to be vulnerable this prep, this run could be it.

 

2. BRAZEN BEAU – J Bowman (3) 59kgs

Claimed the G2 Champagne Stakes (1200m) at Doomben before, as a short priced favourite on each occasion, running second in the BRC Sire’s Produce and G1 JJ Atkins behind Time For War and Almalad respectively. Chris Waller has prepped his son of I Am Invincible for his return to racing here with two barrier trials, both of which he has completed well within himself. Another who has drawn well and should be within striking distance of the leaders as they turn.

 

3. GHIBELLINES – K McEvoy (8) 59kgs

Back-maker who ran fifth (1.9 lengths) as the 2/1 favourite in the Listed Black Opal Stakes before surprising most when securing a beautifully run through the field to take out the G2 Todman Stakes (1200m) at 40/1, his only win thus far from five starts. The son of Shamardal trialled well a fortnight ago but from his gate, will get back in the run and on what he has produced so far in his career, it’s hard to see him running some of these horses down in the straight.

 

4. NOSTRADAMUS – B Avdulla (2) 58kgs

Returned from a six month spell with a smart win in the G3 San Domenico Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill a fortnight ago. The Hawkes Racing representative settled just of the speed before winding up in the straight to win comfortably, defeating Washington Heights three quarters of a length. The extra 100m here will suit and he won with something to spare on the line first up. If Avdulla, can get clear running from an inside draw, expect him to again be finishing very well.

 

5. HALLOWED CROWN – (7) 58kgs

Promising Street Sense colt from the Bart and James Cummings Stable who won each of his two starts earlier this year. He was impressive in winning a Kensington Maiden on debut before enjoying the heavy conditions in the G3 Kindergarten Stakes where he railed home from the tail of the field, with Washington Heights finishing second (1.3 lengths). Looks to have come back in great order judging by his two trials earlier this month, the first of which he defeated Panzer Division – who ran a narrow second first up in last week’s Up and Coming Stakes.

 

6. LAW – J Collett (1) 57kgs

Made his return to racing for his new trainer Chris Waller with a pleasing third in last fortnight’s G3 San Domenico Stakes. The colt by Denman was worked up before the race and from a wide gate, first the first time in his career, settled back in the field before working home well to finish 1.8 lengths from the winner, Nostradamus.
Will be better for that run but from an inside gate, wonder if connections will be prepared to ride him back in the field like last start. If so, he may need some luck in running and will have several smart ones in front of him on the turn.

 

7. SCRATCH ME LUCKY – T Bell (6) 56kgs

Performed a lot better than his record of one win from nine starts would suggest. The Paul Perry trained runner has also secured three placings including second to Bachman and Peggy Jean in the G3 The Schweppes and G1 ATC Sire’s Produce Stakes along with a fourth (1.2 lengths) in the G1 Champagne Stakes behind Go Indy Go. An honest competitor that handles all conditions and who has been tuned up with two Newcastle barrier trails in the past month however, just might find a few here a shade to strong.

 

8. KUMAON – S Clipperton (4) 56kgs

Lonhro colt who finished well to defeat Cyclone on debut back in December of last year before finishing in the placing three of his next four starts including the G2 Pago Pago Stakes (1200m) and G1 Champagne Stakes (1600m). Hasn’t been seen at the trials but his performance from earlier in the year coupled with him drawing gate four which should afford him every chance in the run, means that he cannot be dismissed lightly.

 

9. MODOC – J Lloyd (11) 56kgs

Stable-mate to Scratch Me Lucky who won his first two starts, a Newcastle Maiden and Scone 2yo Open race by 6.5 lengths, before contesting some of the leading races during the autumn carnival. The pick of those runs was his third in the G2 Skyline Stakes behind Valentia, followed by his fourth in the G2 Pago Pago Stakes. The son of Haradasun gets back in his runs and from the second to widest gate, would expect him to be seeing the majority of the field as they turn from home. Hard to see him running them down though.

 

10. SNIPER FIRE – T Angland (9) 56kgs

Made it two wins in a row when he held on to defeat Brazen Moss by half a length in a 2yo Open race over 1500m at his most recent start back in mid-June. That was his fourth start overall and the High Chaparral gelding has shown good improvement with each outing. Has taken up a prominent position in each of his starts so would expect him to come across from a wider gate to help set the pace here. Challengers will be coming thick and fast the final furlong at this level though and he may struggle to hold them out.

 

11. SARAJEVO – J McDonald (12) 56kgs

The second of Godolphin’s runners, he was immediately spelled after his impressive debut win at Kensington back in April and returned to racing as the 13/8 favourite in the Listed The Rosebud three weeks ago. He wasn’t flash to begin and was shuffled back to last in the run. As the field made the run for home, the Lonhro colt had to search for runs through the field and never had the chance to wind up. He finished fourth (1.2 lengths) behind Scissor Kick and Better Land – both whom performed very well in last week’s Up and Coming Stakes – and although drawn poorly here, could be sharp improver.

 

12. YGRITTE – (10) 54kgs

The only filly in the field, the daughter of Snitzel returned to racing after her a promising first preparation in last fortnight’s G3 San Domenico Stakes (1100m). From a good draw she took up a forward position but was soon joined by her rivals as they turned for home and batted away to finish sixth (3.9 lengths) behind Nostradamus. Expected to see more from her first up and she’ll find this race no easier, especially from gate ten.

 

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Odds Comparison:

RACE OVERVIEW

Sniper Fire will cut over from his wide gate with the filly Ygritte with Kumaon, Almalad and Nostradamus all handy. Sticking with Nostradamus here (if he runs here and not in Melbourne) who with the benefit of one run under his belt and a kilo advantage, may have a slight edge on the favourite off. His San Domenico win was good and he’ll derive plenty of benefit from it. Avdulla may have a bit of work to do from gate 2 but at the current price, happy to take the chances he’ll steer a clear path. Sarajevo was only having his second start in the San Domenico and being tardy away proved costly as he had little luck finding sufficient room in the straight.

  1. NOSTRADAMUS
  2. SARAJEVO
  3. ALMALAD
  4. BRAZEN BEAU

 

News:

Chris Waller is having second thoughts about starting promising colt Brazen Beau if Rosehill stays in the heavy range for Saturday’s Run To The Rose meeting.

Already identified as ineffective in soft ground, Brazen Beau’s absence from the Run To The Rose would be a major blow to his chances of emulating former stablemate Zoustar’s Golden Rose win in 2013.

In his only race start in rain-affected going, Brazen Beau was soundly beaten in the Lonhro Plate last season.

And the colt’s reluctance to stretch out in the wet was again evident to Waller with a midfield finish in a barrier trial on Randwick’s Kensington track last week.

By having Brazen Beau resume in the Run To The Rose after a winter campaign in Brisbane, Waller said he was following the racing template he used for Zoustar’s Golden Rose triumph.

“They need a break after Brisbane … obviously they hold some degree of fitness but they still need that pipe-opener to harden them up,” Waller said.

Waller also has Law and Sniper Fire in the Run To The Rose.

Law is being taught to race from behind and hit the line while Waller admits Sniper Fire will be under review at his first start at stakes level.

“We’ll be using this run to give us a gauge on whether he is up this level,” Waller said.

“I think he will be in his three-year-old year but whether it’s this early, I don’t know.”

Rosehill has received almost 200mm of rain since it raced two weeks ago.

But after only another 3mm of overnight rain, the track received a marginal upgrade after an 11.30am inspection on Friday.

While Waller weighs up his Run To The Rose options, Hawkes Racing seems set to start Nostradamus.

Nostradamus was also an acceptor for the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield but he will line up at Rosehill with a fitness edge after his first-up win in the San Domenico Stakes.

He will also start one of the favourites with bookmakers making him a clear-cut second pick at $4.60 behind the unbeaten Almalad at $3.80.

Trainer Gerald Ryan said Ygritte’s promising form in the mud was a key factor in his decision to reconsider plans for the filly.

“In her only two runs on wet tracks she has run second to Mossfun and Eloping,” Ryan said.

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