Rosehill is where Sydney racing takes place this Saturday, with the feature race being the $125,000 Group lll Run To The Rose (1200m), the traditional and key lead up to the Group l Golden Rose (1400m). All eyes will be on the return of crack colt Almalad, with both Gai Waterhouse and Tommy Berry stating that this could possibly be the best horse to come through Tulloch Lodge.
As for some of the other contenders, they need to perform in order to get in the field for the Golden Rose. The main horse in this situation is Sarajevo, who only has 44K in the bank. He needs to run top two, top three at worst, to get enough prizemoney to gain a start in the big race.
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Race One: TAB Early Quaddie Handicap (70) 1400m
Back Me: Lady Sharapova put up a remarkable performance to win first up at Canterbury, bungling the start and being forced to sit near last in a very slowly run race. She then scouted wide on the turn, but showed a very good turn of foot for a sustained period to win. She showed in the Autumn that she can mix it with the good horses, and her first up win confirmed she is a quality animal, so happy to put her on top.
Big Danger: Himpapawid defied an alarming betting drift on debut at Kensington, yet he sat outside the speed and absolutely blitzed them and won like a very good horse. Has to step it up now to Saturday company, and it is easy to get carried away with dominant wins during the Winter, but on face value, it was impressive.
Roughie: Hampton Court was very good I thought when resuming in the San Domenico Stakes here a fortnight back. He flopped out the back and showed no early speed before picking up late and was strong through the line, so I think 1400m here suits, as does the slight drop in depth, and he should show more early speed. Knockout hope at odds.
Race Two: More Than Ready Handicap (75) 2000m
Back Me: Scarletini showed that a win isn’t far away with a narrow second to her stablemate Forever Crazy over 1900m here a fortnight back. She fought on resolutely in the straight and was good through the line, so 2000m should pose no worries and is bred to swim. She hasn’t won for nearly 18 months, but I think she gets her chance here in a pretty even race with not a lot of decent form.
Big Danger: Made To Order ran third to Forever Crazy and Scarletini in that 1900m race here and she was well held there. Waller did say at the start of the prep that she’d be a miler at most, so it’s interesting that he has stepped her back up to the staying trips. What brings her into contention is the massive weight pull she gets on Scarletini- 4kg. Hard to beat on that factor alone.
Roughie: I’ve been following Miss Matty for a little while now and while she hasn’t won, or looked like winning, there has been plenty of merit in her efforts. The run at Seymour last time out was much better than what it reads on paper. She got a long way back and never really got a clear crack at them in the straight. As I said, this race doesn’t carry much depth, so she is one from left field who could surprise.
Race Three: Schweppes Handicap (80) 2400m
Back Me: Given the weight pull he has on his rivals, I’ll put Plenty Special on top. He took his time to win one this prep, but a weak race and a Bowman gem got him home at Kensington. That 2500m slog will make sure he is rock hard fit for a 2400m slog against this bunch, and with only 51kg on his back, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: Georgey Aeroplane was gutsy in defeat last time out at Randwick behind Saigon Tea. He loomed to win outside that mare as they straightened, but given she had the fitness edge and advantage of recently racing in Sydney, she proved a touch too good, but that experience would have done him the world of good. Only query is the wet track. Not sure he is 100% on it.
Roughie: Pentometer is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at Randwick, where he ran a strong fourth to Surpass. He did need to produce something there, because his two prior runs were quite poor, showing next to nothing in each. Like the fact he is up again seven days later, and we know the great record Waller has when using this method.
Race Four: Cellarbrations Handicap (80) 1100m
Back Me: The 1100m start at Rosehill with the rail out does tend to lean towards horses on the speed, so Maroon Bay comes right into the mix. She had been performing admirably in Melbourne before Team Hawkes sent her North to their stables here and she ran a beauty, running a narrow second to Beckon. Comes back to her own sex, down in the weights and most importantly, she can fly from the barriers.
Big Danger: Forget that Maysoon went around first up at Randwick. She had absolutely no luck in the straight when it appeared as if she was going to be right in the mix. She got cut out of a run near the inside and lost all momentum. Trial win prior to that was very good, and the last time she ran here, she was just under four lengths away from Cosmic Endeavour, who went on to win the Tatt’s Tiara. Pretty good form for a benchmark 80
Roughie: Terra Amata was heavily backed to win first up in the Sir James Kirby during the Grafton Carnival and the plunge almost came off, only going down narrowly to Idle Chat before coming here four weeks back and running fifth to Murder Of Crows. I think she was ridden a touch too close to the speed on that occasion. I’d like her ridden a touch more quiet and be saved a bit more because she does have a very good turn of foot and is bred to handle the wet ground.
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Race Five: TAB Quaddie Handicap (95) 1500m
Back Me: Kirramosa resumed from her Crown Oaks triumph in the Spring last year with an outstanding sixth in the Missile Stakes behind Sweet Idea. When she got the gap 300m out, it looked as if she was going to be right in the finish, but given she was first up from a nine month break, she just tired late in the straight. I was concerned about her running flat second up, but she looked sharp in work on Tuesday, and given she is a Group l winner, I think she is so well in at the weights. Massive threat.
Big Danger: Hooked was another who performed very well first up. He resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back and really worked to the line powerfully behind Entirely Platinum. He was back in a very slowly run race, so it was near mathematically impossible for him to make up the ground to win. He was a Group l performer in the Autumn, so we know the class is there, and he does perform well second up.
Roughie: Big watch on Happy Chappy, a stablemate of the second top tip. His two opening runs in Australia last season were pretty ordinary, but a good speed and two solid barrier trials ensured he improved and it was shown on raceday when a closing sixth to Entirely Platinum. His closing sectionals were quite good and is another that’ll relish the 1800m here. Great outside chance.
Race Six: MTA NSW Run To The Rose 1200m
Back Me: One of the best editions of this race, with plenty of talent on display. I’m going to stick fat with Sarajevo. I think you have to forgive him for his first up failure in the Rosebud when fourth to Scissor Kick. He bungled the start and didn’t get much room between runners. I think he is a horse who prefers to be on the outside and in the clear, as we saw on debut. One thing I will say that is against him at the moment is his barrier manners. I know he has only had the two starts, but it needs to be rectified, because with the good races here and just around the corner, if he keeps missing the start, he won’t be winning.
Big Danger: I think everyone who follows Australian racing will have their eyes on Almalad. Gai said earlier in the week that this horse will go down as the best horse she has trained…and considering she has trained close to 100 Group l winners, that’s a massive compliment. Yes, Gai can be highly optimistic, but not like this. His win in the J J Atkins had to be seen to be believed given how hard he worked, and he has come back now a much bigger and stronger horse. Only query is has he come back better…we’ll find out after Saturday.
Roughie: Keen to see how Scratch Me Lucky returns to the races. He showed good promise during the Autumn, and proved he can mix it with the better ones with a placing in the Sires Produce and a fourth in the Champagne. He has looked very sharp in two barrier trials on his home track at Newcastle and I am expecting him to run a cracker fresh.
Race Seven: Premier’s Cup 1800m
Back Me: He’s Your Man showed what a good horse he is when winning the Winter Challenge on August 2, aided by another gun ride from that man again, James McDonald. He does tend to race best on the fresh side, which is what eventuates here, and should only benefit from the rise to 1800m.
Big Danger: Greatwood had a charmed run in front at his Australian debut at this track a fortnight back, and did kick strongly when required, but just couldn’t quite hold off Entirely Platinum and settled for third with Mighty Lucky splitting the pair. Will have come on from that outing, again draws to lead, and over ground now, with a wet track, he’ll take some beating, especially on the minimum. Just not sure he is at the same level as the top tip.
Roughie: Looking for an improved showing from Tupac Amaru. Forget he went around first up behind Entirely Platinum. Pace was very slow and he was last throughout. Draws much better now, gets some weight relief, fitter, and take out the top two…it’s a pretty thin race, and we saw what he is capable of in the Autumn with a narrow second in the Derby.
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Race Eight: Hyland Race Colours Handicap (85) 1200m
Back Me: Two Blue looks the safe way to go in the last. She came with a determiend finishing burst to win first up last time in over 1200m at Randwick, then stepped up to blacktype company and didn’t disgrace herself in the Dark Jewel at Scone when sixth to Seaside. Two trials to prepare for her return to racing have been sharp and she strikes suitable conditions here for her first up assignment.
Big Danger: A wet track could be the final key to seeing Mount Nebo breakthrough for a win this time in. He has been very consistent and continually getting prizemoney for connections, but he can’t quite crack it for a win, but his wet track record (7:2-3-2) reads very well and he should get every chance from the gate and with the claim for Winona Costin.
Roughie: One of the horses being largely talked up from the Waterhouse stable has been Ryker, and you could see why when he bolted in a recent barrier trial at Randwick, winning by over five lengths in a trial which had Group l performers. Suspect on wet ground, but the trial was very impressive and is a noted first up performer.
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 5 He’s Your Man
Next Best: Race One Number 5 Lady Sharapova
Value Bet: Race Eight Number 5 Two Blue
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 11
Leg Three: 5
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14
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