Randwick Guineas day 2012 preview, tips and selections

Group One racing at Randwick…Is there anything better for New South Wales punters! Racing returns to ‘headquarters’ this Saturday for Randwick Guineas Day. Punters have settled on the two proven gallopers, Manwanui and Mosheen, with the former a $2.60 while last years Crown Oaks winner is $4.20.

The babies will be looking to earn a start in the Aami Golden Slipper when the colts and geldings contest the Skyline Stakes (1200m) whilst the fillies will tough it out in the Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m).

Manawanui winning the Mitchelton Wines Vase (Group 2) at Moonee Valley - photo by Race Horse Photos Australia

All in all, it should be another ‘Super Saturday’ for punters and on paper, it appears as if it will be.

Race One: Aspiration Quality 1600m

Back Me: Going for Galizani. Was never going to beat Red Tracer a fortnight back, but still ran very well. Stepping up to a mile suits and Jay Ford is in fine form.
Don’t Back Me: Cabarnet has to be suspect at 1600m, especially at Randwick. Nice mare, but she only has a 150m dash and then paddles.
Big Danger: Older Than Time resumed from the Melbourne Cup with a third in the same race as Galizani. Has the weight, but has the class, as well as Nash on top and a very good second up record (3:1-1-0)
Roughie: Song Shan has produced two eye-catching runs this time in over unsuitable trips. Perhaps suited over further but she is on her home track and could surprise.

Race Two: Hyland Colours Skyline Stakes 1200m

Back Me: I can see only two winning chances here- Raceway and Shelford. I am leaning towards Shelford because of the barrier and he has got that run under his belt now, so he should improve.
Don’t Back Me: Lyric is a nice type who trialled brilliantly at Rosehill recently, but the wide barrier makes it very hard.
Big Danger: Raceway was ugly in beating Shelford at Warwick Farm, but if you go on his debut win, he is a world beater. If he brings that form, he’ll go very close.
Roughie: Lord Duveen won an 800m trial by eight lengths in very slick time on a slow track. Last 100m will test, but he looked very impressive in that trial.

Race Three: Sweet Embrace Stakes 1200m

Back Me: Kuchinskaya led and broke their hearts last start when winning with ease. She’ll lead again and prove very hard to beat back on her home track.
Don’t Back Me: Flying Snitzel should be unbeaten but barrier manners cost her in the Inglis Nursery. However, the form out of that race is suspect and her trial last week at Rosehill wasn’t flash. Prefer to watch.
Big Danger: Dear Demi finally gets 1200m and a big track, which she has been wanting since day one. Gun barrier here should see her just off the pace and hitting the line hard late.
Roughie: Kyria ran a super race in the Silver Slipper after settling well back. Ideal gate, extra 100m, knockout chance for me.

Race Four: Turnpoint Randwick City Quality 2000m

Back Me: It’s a handy race, but if Herculian Prince holds his form from last week, he should beat these.
Don’t Back Me: Maules Creek is a nice type, but gee he has proven costly for punters in his last three starts. Might be a risk at 2000m against a few smart ones.
Big Danger: Permit came from a horrible position to flash home for third behind Single. Extra furlong, tick. Dry track, tick. Corey Brown…yep, despite that, he’s still a major threat.
Roughie: Give Coliseo another 50m and he wins the Canberra Cup last Sunday. The Randwick 2000m will suit him perfectly and Craig Williams rides.

Race Five: McGrath Eskimo Prince Quality 1200m

Back Me: Can’t see Nobby Snip getting beat here. Beautiful ride by Tommy Berry to get him home last start. He’ll lap up the firmer surface here and from the inside draw, he’ll sit on the speed and prove too good.
Don’t Back Me: Altar is a nice filly, but she hasn’t done a great deal this time in. Pass.
Big Danger: The best weighted horse is Subarc. Desperately unlucky in the Magic Millions in Queensland. Has since been spelled, given a quiet trial and is first up in a tough race. Having said that, he flies fresh and if they go hard in front, this is the one you want to be on.
Roughie: Aeronautical is back to his favourite track and on ground. He has been freshened and if he is anywhere near his best, he can certainly threaten these.

Race Six: Turnpoint Royal Randwick Guineas 1600m

Back Me: Strike The Stars is a special for me. Saw a video of him working this week and it was first class. It’ll take a huge effort to beat him here, in the Rosehill Guineas and the Derby because I think he can win the lot.
Don’t Back Me: Mosheen. Nikolic produced one of the all time great group one rides to get her home at Flemington. He’ll need to do the same here and I don’t think he can because this race has more depth in it.
Big Danger: Bad luck beat Manawanui in the Hobartville. He was wide with no cover and was like a drunken sailor in the straight. Stepping up to 1600m is a big tick, but he does lose Schofield. In saying that, Tommy Berry is the in form rider in Australia.
Roughie: There are several roughies for me: Doctor Doom, Said Com, Rekindled Alliance and Ocean Park.

Race Seven: TAB Sportsbet Weona Girl Quality 1200m

Back Me: Very thin race. Going with Dystopia. Given a lovely ride and clung on to win the Triscay at Rosehill. Excellent record second up (4:2-0-1), drawn well…only query is the weight, but she should get the soft run to overcome that.
Don’t Back Me: Jersey Lily. Class mare in the race, but she was terrible behind Red Tracer. Not for me.
Big Danger: Mascareri flies at Randwick flies at the distance and flies on top of the ground. Fitness is the only query.
Roughie: Triple Six is better suited over further, but she trialled well on the Kensington track and has placed in all three first up runs. One to watch.

Race Eight: Jim Beam Handicap 1400m

Back Me: Forfeiture could not have been more impressive when powering to the line off the back of a solid tempo at Canterbury. Deserves a chance in this grade and should get the perfect run from the barrier.
Don’t Back Me: Revolt resumed with an outstanding third behind Detours and Aerobatics, but the wide barrier rules him out as a winning prospect for me.
Big Danger: Mossamine trialled nicely behind Niagara recently. If he brought his best form, he’d be right in the mix. That trial suggests he might.
Roughie: Ramsays Curse got to the line well enough last start at Canberra in a handy sprint race. Suited at 1400m and is drawn to receive a good run. Definite blowout horse.

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