Punters believe Sydney’s recent G2 Missile Stakes holds the key to first Group 1 race of the season with first, second and fourth in that race, Sweet Idea, Messene and Boban, heading the market for the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield this Saturday. Messene is tipped to turn the tables on Sweet Idea over the seven furlongs and he has opened at $4.20, just in advance of Boban ($4.40) and Sweet Idea ($5.50). Moment Of Change, who is shooting for his fourth G1 win over 1400m at Caulfield, is the best of the local hopes and the only other runner under double figure odds at $6.50. History shows that the winner of the race should come from this quartet as the last winner of the Memsie who didn’t start single figure odds, was Bundy Lad (1995)
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Memsie Stakes 2014 form guide:
1. HAPPY TRAILS – M Rodd (2) 59kgs
Finished last campaign in exceptional style, winning the G1 Turnbull Stakes before running a nose second to Shamus Award in the W. S. Cox Plate. The 7yo resumed from a spell earlier this month, closing steadily from the back of the field on a slow track, to run fifth (4.8 lengths) behind handy performer Riziz in the G3 Spring Stakes. He submitted a similar performance in last year’s Spring Stakes which he then followed up by running seventh (3.5 lengths) to Atlantic Jewel (who was ridden by Rodd) in the 2013 edition of the Memsie. Will strip fitter for the first up outing and benefit from a drier track.
2. BOBAN – G Schofield (9) 59kgs
Returned from a good break with an eye-catching fourth (three quarters of a length) to Sweet Idea in the G2 Missile Stakes. The son of Bernardini wasn’t flash to begin and settled last before having to angle his way to the outside the field in the straight and then finishing the last 100m off in good style. Looks to have come back in good shape and whilst he has drawn wide, look for him to be flashing home late, just like he did when he took at the G3 Moonga Stakes at this track/trip last spring.
3. MOMENT OF CHANGE – L Nolen (8) 59kgs
6yo gelding who has recorded three WFA G1 victories over the 1400m at Caulfield and will take his spot here after running second to Hard Strike in the Listed Regal Roller (1200m) a fortnight ago, first up from a spell. The Peter Moody trained galloper looked to be travelling well on the turn but under 62kgs, couldn’t match the sprint of Hard Strike (who carried 54kgs) and only held his position to the line, finishing two lengths from the winner. That run combined with the 4kg drop, will see him take good improvement out of the Regal Roller and be hard to beat again.
4. SUPER COOL – G Boss (7) 59kgs
The Australian Cup winner from 2013 returns to racing off a ten month spell for trainer Mark Kavanagh. The 5yo by Fastnet Rock has run some cheeky races fresh in the past, including a fantastic effort to finish third behind stable-mate Atlantic Jewel in this race last year – beating home It’s A Dundeel who finished fourth. Not seen at any trials and with his main target races this spring coming later and over a longer trip, happy to see what he can produce first up here.
5. SERTORIUS – C Williams (11) 59kgs
The now 7yo son of Galileo ran a slashing race fresh last campaign, finishing at a rate of knots in the G1 Futurity Stakes – over this track/trip, to get within a long neck of Moment Of Change. He resumes here off a nineteen week spell and having drawn the widest gate, will give the field a start as they pick up the pace heading for home. Although his best comes over more ground, he cannot be dismissed from running a bold race fresh. From eight first up runs he has recorded two wins and four placings and his yet to run worse than second in four starts at this track, three of which have been at Group level.
6. PUISSANCE DE LUNE – B Rawiller (1) 59kgs
Resumed from a ten month spell as the 13/8 favourite in the G2 P B Lawrence but after settling mid-field, was flat in the run home, finishing sixth (2.5 lengths) behind Star Rolling. It was the third time in row that the 7yo by Shamardal has been rolled when starting favourite. The grey stallion ran second to Foreteller in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes second up last preparation but that came off the back of a much smarter fresh run that saw him claim the 2013 P. B. Lawrence. Has the class to bounce back here but hard to back him to do so off of the first up run.
7. MESSENE – D Dunn (4) 59kgs
Continued to improve and build on his impressive strike rate last campaign, graduating from Benchmark class to a G2 winner in the space of only four starts. The son of Lonhro returned to racing in the G2 Missile Stakes three weeks ago at Randwick where, after settling on the leader’s and the eventual winner’s back, he ran the gritty mare Sweet Idea to within a head on the line, finishing second. Whilst this is his first look at Caulfield, he has had plenty of experience the Melbourne way of going and will also be aided by the in from Dwayne Dunn and a perfect draw. Expect him to be in this for a long way.
8. DISSIDENT – B Melham (5) 58.5kgs
The Group 1 winner returns as a 4yo and meets a smart field of older gallopers under WFA condition for the first time. The son of Sebring, who spelled the winter in Queensland, has had a barrier trial at Doomben then one in Sydney at Randwick, over the past six weeks in readiness for his return and looked good in both. Jumping from gate five should see Melham have the Peter Moody trained galloper in an advantageous position throughout.
9. SILENT ACHIEVER – D Oliver (3) 57kgs
Put together a stellar campaign last time in, winning four of her five starts including the G1 Ranvet Stakes and G1 The BMW. The O’Reilly mare resumes from a nineteen week spell and did win first up last prep in NZ, carrying 60kgs in an Open Handicap. Her previous fresh run was in this race last year where she had no luck in the straight after being caught on the fence, never getting out of second gear when eleventh (5.8 lengths) behind Atlantic Jewel. Seems to be getting better with age and the combination of Oliver and a good draw, should see her right in the mix.
10. GIG – V Duric (6) 57kgs
The Commands mare has been up since the end of March but still continues to race well and pay her way. She ran second in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes to Thiamandi before claiming third behind Star Rolling in the G2 P. B. Lawrence last start, after sticking on tenaciously from an on speed position. Whilst she’s racing honestly, she has keep finding at least a few too good for her and this race is no easier than her last couple.
11. SWEET IDEA – C Newitt (10) 56.5kgs
Tenacious mare who recorded her sixth career win when beating Messene home by a head in the G2 Missile Stakes (1200m) first up three weeks ago. The daughter of Snitzel crossed from a wide gate, as she has drawn here, but in a typically determined effort, staved off the late challengers. This is her first attempt Melbourne way of going and Caulfield can be a difficult track for first-time visitors to negotiate however, with her likely to lead and find the rail, she should meet the challenge with little drama and again prove very hard to run down.
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RACE OVERVIEW
Sweet Idea will shot over along with Moment Of Change with Messene, who has drawn handier than the other two, also taking up a prominent position. Between them, they should be able to set a pace to suit which should see them all involved in the finish. Boban will have to give them a start but there was plenty to like about his Missile Stakes effort. The decent spell over the winter seems to have served him well and he could be back to the kind of form that saw him win five straight this time last year. Silent Achiever could be the upset if there is to be one. She’s drawn to keep close tabs on those up front and she should’ve finished much closer in this race last year first up from a spell.
- MESSENE
- BOBAN
- MOMENT OF CHANGE
- SWEET IDEA
News:
Michael Rodd doesn’t expect he will ever ride another horse like Atlantic Jewel.
But the jockey does rate his chances of winning another Memsie Stakes on Saturday.
The now-retired Atlantic Jewel’s outstanding return to the racetrack a year ago after a 70-week injury absence gave Rodd his second-straight Memsie win in its inaugural running at Group One level.
This year Rodd rides Cox Plate runner-up Happy Trails and is convinced he has a chance to make it three in a row.
“It’s been a good race to me,” Rodd said.
“Obviously the mare last year, it was one of the best performances I’ve been involved in. What she was able to do, winning it sitting three deep without cover and beating probably one of the best fields we’ve seen go around.
“Sincero was good winning the year before and I’m definitely on a horse this year that can do it.”
The Paul Beshara-trained Happy Trails is second-up at Caulfield after an unplaced Spring Stakes run and has been readied for the Memsie with a barrier trial last week.
“He has fitness on his side and he’s got a good barrier so there’s no reason why he can’t come out and make it three for me,” Rodd said.
The winner of 16 Melbourne spring carnival Group One races since 2006, Rodd heads into this year’s campaign without the backing of a major stable.
For six years he was stable rider for Atlantic Jewel’s trainer Mark Kavanagh before going freelance in January.
“It’s one I’m definitely tackling by myself, but I know enough owners and trainers now and I’m getting enough support,” Rodd said.
“My name is out there.”
He admits the build-up to this spring has been a little flatter and quieter than 2013 without Atlantic Jewel, but he is thankful he got the chance to be associated with the star mare until injury ended her race career before the Cox Plate.
“I don’t think I’ll see one like her. She was a freak and if she could have stayed sound, who knows what she could have achieved,” Rodd said.
“At least I got to get on one. Every jockey wants to win a Group One race and be associated with a good horse. And I’ve ticked a few of those boxes.”
Rodd says he loves this time of year and hopes to add more big race wins to his tally which already includes a Melbourne Cup (2007) and Cox Plate (2008).
“I just want to be consistent at this time of year,” he said.
“With my weight I don’t ride much under 55 (kilos) so I am limited. But I just want to make sure that I’m hitting the target when I get the right rides.”
