Rosehill is where Sydney racing takes place this Saturday, with the feature race being the $125,000 Group lll Run To The Rose (1200m), the traditional and key lead up to the Group l Golden Rose (1400m). All eyes will be on the return of crack colt Almalad, with both Gai Waterhouse and Tommy Berry stating that this could possibly be the best horse to come through Tulloch Lodge.

As for some of the other contenders, they need to perform in order to get in the field for the Golden Rose. The main horse in this situation is Sarajevo, who only has 44K in the bank. He needs to run top two, top three at worst, to get enough prizemoney to gain a start in the big race.

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Race One: TAB Early Quaddie Handicap (70) 1400m

Back Me: Burning Passion was crunched in betting last time out at Canterbury, firming to $1.40 from $1.60, and his supporters didn’t have a single moment of concern, with the son of Northern Meteor bolting in by over three lengths on a similar track to what he faces this afternoon. Has the race fitness, hard to beat.
Big Danger: First Seal was a drifter in betting when he resumed at Kensington, but nobody told the horse or Hugh Bowman, when the China Horse Racing Club owned galloper toughed it out best in the mud to narrowly. Not sure he is 100% happy getting the flippers out, but he is a good horse nonetheless.
Roughie: Hampton Court was very good I thought when resuming in the San Domenico Stakes here a fortnight back. He flopped out the back and showed no early speed before picking up late and was strong through the line, so I think 1400m here suits, as does the slight drop in depth, and he should show more early speed. Knockout hope at odds.

Race Two: More Than Ready Handicap (75) 2000m

Back Me: Scarletini showed that a win isn’t far away with a narrow second to her stablemate Forever Crazy over 1900m here a fortnight back. She fought on resolutely in the straight and was good through the line, so 2000m should pose no worries and is bred to swim. She hasn’t won for nearly 18 months, but I think she gets her chance here in a pretty even race with not a lot of decent form.
Big Danger: Made To Order ran third to Forever Crazy and Scarletini in that 1900m race here and she was well held there. Waller did say at the start of the prep that she’d be a miler at most, so it’s interesting that he has stepped her back up to the staying trips. What brings her into contention is the massive weight pull she gets on Scarletini- 4kg. Hard to beat on that factor alone.
Roughie: One last chance for Blazing Dragon. She was very good two back when coming from near last to run fifth to Moral Victory, then seemingly had her chance behind Forever Crazy. She has been a tease for a long time without winning, so this is D-Day for her.

Race Three: Schweppes Handicap (80) 2400m

Back me: Georgey Aeroplane was gutsy in defeat last time out at Randwick behind Saigon Tea. He loomed to win outside that mare as they straightened, but given she had the fitness edge and advantage of recently racing in Sydney, she proved a touch too good, but that experience would have done him the world of good. Only query is the wet track. Not sure he is 100% on it.
Roughie: Pentometer is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at Randwick, where he ran a strong fourth to Surpass. He did need to produce something there, because his two prior runs were quite poor, showing next to nothing in each. Like the fact he is up again seven days later, and we know the great record Waller has when using this method.
Roughie: Former import Khalid, now with Paul Perry, brokethrough for his first win on Australian soil with a brilliant finishing burst near the inside to nab Thousand Carat right on the peg at Kensington. His two runs prior were here and there was merit in both. Up to 2400m looks perfect and did look pretty good on wet ground in that win.

Race Four: Cellarbrations Handicap (80) 1100m

Back Me: The 1100m start at Rosehill with the rail out does tend to lean towards horses on the speed, so Maroon Bay comes right into the mix. She had been performing admirably in Melbourne before Team Hawkes sent her North to their stables here and she ran a beauty, running a narrow second to Beckon. Comes back to her own sex, down in the weights and most importantly, she can fly from the barriers.
Big Danger: Forget that Maysoon (Best Odwent around first up at Randwick. She had absolutely no luck in the straight when it appeared as if she was going to be right in the mix. She got cut out of a run near the inside and lost all momentum. Trial win prior to that was very good, and the last time she ran here, she was just under four lengths away from Cosmic Endeavour, who went on to win the Tatt’s Tiara. Pretty good form for a benchmark 80
Roughie: Miss Alibi has another who has teased this prep after a promising opening campaign in the Autumn. She wasn’t too bad last week behind Diamond Oasis, making up good ground late. Drawn to be near the speed and is rock hard fit, so she is a chance in a pretty open race.

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Race Five: TAB Quaddie Handicap (95) 1500m

Back Me: Eigelstein looks the big improver here at odds. His last couple at Melbourne have been much better than what they read, but importantly today, he gets back to Sydney and back on to a wet track. Last time that happened he bolted in, so with a couple of important scratchings, he comes right into contention now.
Big Danger: Beyond Thankful didn’t have the best of luck when resuming at this track a fortnight back behind Territory. getting stuck near the fence and not getting much room in the straight. Grows another leg on wet ground, Bowman takes the ride, drawn well, good record second up, hard to beat.
Roughie: Big watch on Lucky Chappy, a stablemate of the second top tip. His two opening runs in Australia last season were pretty ordinary, but a good speed and two solid barrier trials ensured he improved and it was shown on raceday when a closing sixth to Entirely Platinum. His closing sectionals were quite good and is another that’ll relish the 1800m here. Great outside chance.

Race Six: MTA NSW Run To The Rose 1200m

Back Me: One of the best editions of this race, with plenty of talent on display. I’m going to stick fat with Sarajevo. I think you have to forgive him for his first up failure in the Rosebud when fourth to Scissor Kick. He bungled the start and didn’t get much room between runners. I think he is a horse who prefers to be on the outside and in the clear, as we saw on debut. One thing I will say that is against him at the moment is his barrier manners. I know he has only had the two starts, but it needs to be rectified, because with the good races here and just around the corner, if he keeps missing the start, he won’t be winning.
Big Danger: I think everyone who follows Australian racing will have their eyes on Almalad. Gai said earlier in the week that this horse will go down as the best horse she has trained…and considering she has trained close to 100 Group l winners, that’s a massive compliment. Yes, Gai can be highly optimistic, but not like this. His win in the J J Atkins had to be seen to be believed given how hard he worked, and he has come back now a much bigger and stronger horse. Only query is has he come back better…we’ll find out after Saturday.
Roughie: Keen to see how Scratch Me Lucky returns to the races. He showed good promise during the Autumn, and proved he can mix it with the better ones with a placing in the Sires Produce and a fourth in the Champagne. He has looked very sharp in two barrier trials on his home track at Newcastle and I am expecting him to run a cracker fresh.

Race Seven: Premier’s Cup 1800m

Back Me: He’s Your Man showed what a good horse he is when winning the Winter Challenge on August 2, aided by another gun ride from that man again, James McDonald. He does tend to race best on the fresh side, which is what eventuates here, and should only benefit from the rise to 1800m.
Big Danger: Greatwood had a charmed run in front at his Australian debut at this track a fortnight back, and did kick strongly when required, but just couldn’t quite hold off Entirely Platinum and settled for third with Mighty Lucky splitting the pair. Will have come on from that outing, again draws to lead, and over ground now, with a wet track, he’ll take some beating, especially on the minimum. Just not sure he is at the same level as the top tip.
Roughie: Looking for an improved showing from Tupac Amaru. Forget he went around first up behind Entirely Platinum. Pace was very slow and he was last throughout. Draws much better now, gets some weight relief, fitter, and take out the top two…it’s a pretty thin race, and we saw what he is capable of in the Autumn with a narrow second in the Derby.

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Race Eight: Hyland Race Colours Handicap (85) 1200m

Back Me: Two Blue looks the safe way to go in the last. She came with a determiend finishing burst to win first up last time in over 1200m at Randwick, then stepped up to blacktype company and didn’t disgrace herself in the Dark Jewel at Scone when sixth to Seaside. Two trials to prepare for her return to racing have been sharp and she strikes suitable conditions here for her first up assignment.
Big Danger: A wet track could be the final key to seeing Mount Nebo breakthrough for a win this time in. He has been very consistent and continually getting prizemoney for connections, but he can’t quite crack it for a win, but his wet track record (7:2-3-2) reads very well and he should get every chance from the gate and with the claim for Winona Costin.
Roughie: Murder Of Crows came with a brilliant finishing burst to win over the 1100m here first up, albeit in a much easier race than this. He does have a good record second up, Bowman rides, hot speed likely for him to run down…no reason why he can’t do a repeat.

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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 5 He’s Your Man

Next Best: Race Three Number 3 Georgey Aeroplane

Value Bet: Race Eight Number 5 Two Blue

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 4, 9

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 14

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News:

Chris Waller is having second thoughts about starting promising colt Brazen Beau if Rosehill stays in the heavy range for Saturday’s Run To The Rose meeting.

Already identified as ineffective in soft ground, Brazen Beau’s absence from the Run To The Rose would be a major blow to his chances of emulating former stablemate Zoustar’s Golden Rose win in 2013.

In his only race start in rain-affected going, Brazen Beau was soundly beaten in the Lonhro Plate last season.

And the colt’s reluctance to stretch out in the wet was again evident to Waller with a midfield finish in a barrier trial on Randwick’s Kensington track last week.

By having Brazen Beau resume in the Run To The Rose after a winter campaign in Brisbane, Waller said he was following the racing template he used for Zoustar’s Golden Rose triumph.

“They need a break after Brisbane … obviously they hold some degree of fitness but they still need that pipe-opener to harden them up,” Waller said.

Waller also has Law and Sniper Fire in the Run To The Rose.

Law is being taught to race from behind and hit the line while Waller admits Sniper Fire will be under review at his first start at stakes level.

“We’ll be using this run to give us a gauge on whether he is up this level,” Waller said.

“I think he will be in his three-year-old year but whether it’s this early, I don’t know.”

Rosehill has received almost 200mm of rain since it raced two weeks ago.

But after only another 3mm of overnight rain, the track received a marginal upgrade after an 11.30am inspection on Friday.

While Waller weighs up his Run To The Rose options, Hawkes Racing seems set to start Nostradamus.

Nostradamus was also an acceptor for the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield but he will line up at Rosehill with a fitness edge after his first-up win in the San Domenico Stakes.

He will also start one of the favourites with bookmakers making him a clear-cut second pick at $4.60 behind the unbeaten Almalad at $3.80.

Trainer Gerald Ryan said Ygritte’s promising form in the mud was a key factor in his decision to reconsider plans for the filly.

“In her only two runs on wet tracks she has run second to Mossfun and Eloping,” Ryan said.