Flemington will host Saturday racing in Melbourne this week with a strong eight race program, headlined by the $120,000 Listed Kensington Stakes (1000m).
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Race One: Nursery Plate 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a good race for the Team Hawkes runner Nostradamus (Best Odds: $1.65), who is very short in the betting given he is beautifully bred, with his mother, Leone Chiara, a multiple stakes winner, and is a half brother to Star Witness. Yet to be seen officially in public, but on breeding, he should take care of them.
Big Danger: Pelerin (Best Odds: $5.00) is on debut here for Peter Snowden. By New Approach out of Super Milli, who herself didn’t do a great deal on the race track, but this colt has the Snowden polish, so he has to be rated a threat.
Roughie: Jarklin (Best Odds: $31.00) wasn’t too bad in winning under the lights at Cranbourne. Sat up outside the speed, took the lead 150m out, and got a bit lost in front but did it well enough. I’d like to see him ridden a touch more quiet. If that eventuates, he can place.
$250 Nostradamus Free Bet
Race Two: Dover Handicap (90) 1610m Form Guide
Back Me: Really good race for the mares. I’ve been very faithful to Gig (Best Odds: $7.00) this time in, but I think the 1610m is a concern, along with the weight. You’d be hard pressed to find a more genuine week in/week out mare than Five All for Darren Weir, who has won three times and placed four times from eight starts, with her lone blotch being eighth in the Elvstroem Classic on debut last year at Swan Hill. Beaten by Gig last start at Flemington, and that mare franked the form by placing at Listed level last Saturday. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Flying Hostess (Best Odds: $7.50) was exposed a bit early by Yendall two back at Caulfield, but she seemed to appreciate it as she charged clear late to win impressively. She then ran again there, and just took forever to wind up when second to Spellrocker, who she meets 2kg better off at the weights. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Spellrocker (Best Odds: $15.00) did nothing wrong in winning that race last time out. Has the same weight, looks like she’ll lead comfortably again…but at Flemington, Mallyon will need to be more patient and not go for home as early as she did at Caulfield.
$250 Gig Free Bet
Race Three: Birdcage Handicap (70) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Great each way bet for mine here in the shape Lamingtons (Best Odds: $12.00). Her opening three runs this time in, all of which at the Valley, have been outstanding, including two back in a heat of the 55 second challenge where she was very game when a narrow second to Observer. Last start she was probably exposed on the speed a touch earlier than what she likes and she ran out of gas late. If she can get some cover and a drag into the final 400m, she’ll be mighty hard to beat.
Big Danger: Diamond Glow (Best Odds: $4.20) had two runs back in the Autumn, both at Caulfield, with a win and a second to Miracles Of Life, who at the time was the best two year old in Australia, so the formline heading into a 70 rating race looks outstanding.
Roughie: Mrs Hadlee (Best Odds: $8.50) tried very hard first up behind a real promising one in Awasita over this track/distance. Loomed to win, but the winner just had a stronger kick at the end. With the run under her belt, and drawn the right part of the track, she can figure in the finish.
$250 Lamingtons Free Bet
Race Four: Craftsman Handicap 1720m Form Guide
Back Me: Clear two horse race between He’s Your Man and Prince Of Penzance (Best Odds: $3.10). Leaning towards the latter, because the stable were hoping the horse would just run on last start…he did more than that, he blitzed them, and easily. He is very, very promising, and although rising in grade, I’m confident he can run a cracking race.
Big Danger: He’s Your Man (Best Odds: $2.80) was first up in Australia when a game second to Anlon over the 1400m here. That horse came out and won at Listed level last Saturday, so the form lines up quite well and is a second up winner.
Roughie: Had the other two not been in the race, I’d be all over Eraset (Best Odds: $10.00) after his blinder last Saturday over the mile. He can be known to be a milk drinker, but he has really turned the corner in this prep and will be winning races. Don’t think he’ll be winning here, but is a great place bet.
$250 Prince Of Penzance Free Bet
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Race Five: Seascay Handicap 1410m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Bon Rocket (Best Odds: $3.50). Most unlucky on debut when badly held up in the straight, then made amends with a strong win before unleashing a brilliant final 200m to spank his rivals last time out. All three runs have been in his backyard of Cranbourne, so he is away from home for the first time, but he looks pretty smart and provided he can get cover from the barrier, he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: Not surprised to see support for Corporate Takeover (Best Odds: $17.00). He was luckless at Warrnambool last start. He got badly held up on the home turn and was dragged back by tired horses. He eventually got through and charged late for second. He is definitely looking for further than 1200m and he gets that here, and his lone city run resulted in a four length defeat by stakes performer Lady Lakshmi.
Roughie: There was nothing wrong with the win of Brotherly Secret (Best Odds: $7.00) at the Valley last time out despite the fact he had the dream on the back of the leader and got the split at the top of the straight. His run prior to that was okay, and even though he carries topweight here, he is in the mix.
$250 Bon Rocket Free Bet
Race Six: Kensington Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: I think Kaiser Sun (Best Odds: $3.10) will get the job done. The fit horse in winning form generally wins these type of races against horses who are first up and in need of the run. He has been quite impressive in two wins from as many runs this prep at this track/distance. Does everything right, sits on the pace…hard to beat.
Big Danger: First Command (Best Odds: $6.00) is the clear class runner in the race, but it’s hard to know where he is at given he has had so many injury problems in the past. Was last seen in the Lightning behind Black Caviar where he was outclassed. On his best form, he is a definite chance.
Roughie: Fab Devola (Best Odds: $21.00) led last start and was there to win but couldn’t go on with it late under 59kg. Drops back to 54kg now, should lead these comfortably, and down in the weights, he can give some cheek.
$250 Kaiser Sun Free Bet
Race Seven: Piping Lane Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet across Australia this weekend for me in Index Linked (Best Odds: $3.10). His two runs at this track/distance since coming from Sydney have been excellent. Toyed with them two back, then tried his guts out, but couldn’t peg back Gottino, who had the pull in the weights. He drops in depth here, drops in weight, should get a hot speed courtesy of The Cleaner, and drawn to get a clear run…can’t see him getting rolled.
Big Danger: I’ll concede that Initiator (Best Odds: $3.80) is a threat, but in terms of a betting proposition, no thanks at around $3. Way too short for my liking, despite the fact he was most impressive at Caulfield last time after doing plenty of work. If you like him, I’d say wait until raceday to get a better price.
Roughie: Epingle (Best Odds: $7.00) just looked in need of the run after a freshen up when sixth in the Lord Stakes at Mornington behind Oregon Spirit. Her form in the Spring was outstanding, and would make mince meat of her rivals here. She might just need this one under the belt also, but she’ll be running on at the end.
$250 Index Linked Free Bet
Race Eight: Leonard Handicap (90) 1410m Form Guide
Back Me: Jamie Kah will show Melbourne why she is one of the best female riders in Australia when she steers to Mandla (Best Odds: $2.80) to victory. The snip snip job Mandla received last year has really done the trick with this horse. Early on his career, he loomed to win but had his mind on other things and threw races away. He resumed from a break in May and blitzed them at Seymour, beating home our big danger, then had another break and resumed a couple of weeks ago at the same track and did much the same, winning most impressively. He then ran at Geelong a couple of weeks back and it looked as if he was going to be a hard luck story, but somehow got a gap, burst through and won impressively. Looks the winner.
Big Danger: Pillar Of Creation (Best Odds: $7.00) did the job for our followers last start at Caulfield, aided by a peach ride from Damian Lane, who steers him here also. He is becoming a genuine little galloper who busts his gut each time he steps out. Drawn well, down in the weights and looks a threat.
Roughie: Decircles (Best Odds: $7.50) led them up in the Standish, and looked to travel comfortably, but was quickly beaten off and battled on for third to Flamberge. I’d like to see him ridden off the pace, and with the claim as well as stepping up in trip, that may eventuate.
$250 Mandla Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 3 Index Linked (Best Odds: $3.10)
Next Best: Race Eight Number 12 Mandla (Best Odds: $2.80)
Best Roughie: Race Three Number 1 Lamingtons (Best Odds: $12.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 9
Leg Four: 1, 3, 10, 12
$50 Investment =8.68% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
