Doncaster Mile Tips and Odds – 2014

The feature race at Randwick is the Doncaster Mile which has attracted a full quality field of runners from around Australia and the world including a Japanese galloper.

On paper it looks to be a very open race which will provide punters great value in betting and it looks like tactics, luck and ride will play a major factor in the race.

 

1. BOBAN – G Schofield (19) 58kgs

Summary: Scratched

 

2. MY KINGDOM OF FIFE – C Newitt (7) 57kgs – Best Odds: $101 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Burst onto the scene three years ago to the day but has had injury problems and has had a long time on the side lines and judging by his two runs this preparation he hasn’t returned anywhere near where he left so i will be risking him.

 

3. STREAMA – J Bowman (21) 56.5kgs – Best Odds: $34 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: I was keen on Streama heading into the Doncaster but she has drawn a disasterious barrier which will make it tough for her especially giving some good chances in the race weight. Likely to press forward from the barrier and if there is no pressure i think she will be right in the finish, an each way ticket at the odds i feel is a solid bet.

Royal Descent - Doncaster Mile Tips
Royal Descent

 

4. SACRED FALLS – Z Purton (14) 56.5kgs – Best Odds: $13 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Last years winner who has been ticking along nicely this preparation and despite having 3.5kg more on hisback from last year i think he is one of the big chances in the race and the more rain the better.

 

5. HAWKSPUR – J Cassidy (8) 56kgs – Best Odds: $9.50 at Bookmaker.com.au

Summary: Not sure what to think of Hawkspur, i was a big fan of his last preparation but he just didn’t seem to fire in the big races and always disappointed punters. His run was super in the Ranvet Stakes and based on that he is a very live chance here but he has turned into a bit of a non winner in this feature races.

 

6. TOYDINI – B Shinn (3) 56kgs – Best Odds: $17 at Sportingbet.com.au

Summary: Has had almost the perfect preparation heading into the race with a slight increase in distance each start and he will drop in weight from those starts which will definitely help a long with the extra distance. His run in the George Ryder was very good and with some luck from an inside barrier i think he is a big chance of winning on Saturday although he will need luck.

 

7. SPEEDINESS – D Oliver (1) 55.5kgs – Best Odds: $19 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Has returned arguably better this preparation despite only the one placing from three starts. He gets up to a more suitable distance on Saturday and he has come through three very good form lines and hasn’t been beaten far in any of them and looks to be way over the odds in betting and i wouldn’t be surprised if good support comes for him on Saturday. The inside barrier is the only worry.

 

8. MOURO – L Nolen (5) 55kgs – Best Odds: $81 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Will jump at close to triple figures odds on Saturday which i don’t think is justified and at his best i think he has an outiside place chance in the race. If you are a multiples bettor id be including him for some value.

 

9. ROYAL DESCENT – N Rawiller (20) 54kgs – Best Odds: $12 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Her run in the Coolmore Classic was very good where she hit the line well and looked like the mile would suit her perfectly. She has drawn barrier 20 which i doubt is an issue as she would have gone back anyways and it will prevent her being caught in traffic. She is my on top selection in the race and if the track is wet i think some big money will come for her.

 

10. MONTON – S Clipperton (4) 54kgs – Best Odds: $126 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Will go forward and make his own luck but at the weights i don’t think he has the class to beat a field like this so i will be leaving him out.

 

11. DEAR DEMI – J McDonald (2) 53.5kgs – Best Odds: $41 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Dear Demi at her best would go very close in this race but she has been far from it recently without being poor. She could be a blowout chance in the race so i would be including her at the odds in multiples.

 

12. FAT AL – (15) 53kgs – Best Odds: $201 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Making up the numbers.

 

13. SLOW PACE – J Moreira (22) 52.5kgs – Best Odds: $26 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Ran well on his Australian debut but this is much tougher, has perhaps the best jockey in the world on his back which always helps but i doubt he will be winning this race even with the best ride.

 

14. HANA’S GOAL – K Maruta (16) 52kgs – Best Odds: $67 at Sportsbet.com.au

Summary: Don’t know a lot about the Japan form but she ran a good race in the Coolmore Classic and should have finished closer. Judging by her international runs she will be looking for further but i will be keeping her safe.

 

15. LIDARI – C Schofield (6) 52kgs – Best Odds: $61 at Bookmaker.com.au

Summary: On a drying track i think he will shorten in betting and he will have an outside chance in the race but if it is rain affected i will be leaving him out.

 

16. DISSIDENT – B Avdulla (11) 51.5kgs – Best Odds: $20 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Will go into this rock hard fit and he has shown he is a bit of a war horse if he is raced on the speed. Took more of a sit last start which i don’t think suited so i expect them to roll forward with the light weight and could steal this race.

 

17. MESSENE – C Brown (18) 51.5kgs – Best Odds: $6 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Opened as favourite in the race but has been a notable drifter in the betting which is a worry if you have backed him. Suspect in the wet but you can’t knock winning form and he certainly has that with seven wins on the trot heading into the race.

 

18. EL ROCA – G Boss (17) 51.5kgs – Best Odds: $12 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Like the other three year old Dissident he will go forward with the light wait and if they don’t carve each other up i think they could put on a very good show and be hard to catch.

 

19. WEARY – T Berry (13) 51.5kgs – Best Odds: $6 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Has had a lot said about him and a lot of people are declaring him as the winner before the race has started. He didn’t beat much in the Prelude and from the barrier i think he could be posted wide with the breeze. I think he is well under the odds and should be in the double figure price range so i won’t be including him at the price.

 

20. NINTH LEGION – C Williams (21) 51.5kgs – Best Odds: $61 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Rarely runs a bad race but i doubt he has the class to run a place here.

 

21. MALAVIO – (9) 51kgs – Best Odds: $101 at Bet365.com.au

Summary: Wont figure in the finish if he gets a run.

 

22. GYPSY DIAMOND – K McEvoy (10)

Summary: Scratched

 

Top 5 (in order):

Royal Descent

Speediness

El Roca

Toydini

Streama

 

Can’t Win (my opinion only):

My Kingdom Of Fife

Monton

Fat Al

Lidari

Weary

Ninth Legion

Malavio

 

Best Odds:

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