One of the great handicap races in the world will highlight racing from Australia this Saturday where we’ll see the running of the $2.5 Million Bmw Caulfield Cup (2400m). Glencadam Gold, the Gai Waterhouse import who is unbeaten in Australia, is the favourite, ahead of December Draw and the 2011 Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden.
The best mares from Australia will do battle as they head towards the Myer Classic with a start in the $220,000 Group ll Yellowglen Tristarc Stakes (1400m). Top mare Mosheen is the favourite at $3.50, from Red Tracer and Soft Sand, who hasn’t had much luck this time in.
Above average sprinter Howmuchdoyouloveme creates plenty of interest in the $220,000 Group ll Perri Cutten Caulfield Sprint (1100m). He was awesome during the Brisbane Winter, then absolutely bolted in to win the Ramornie at Grafton. He is the top pick in betting.
Race One: Snowhite Maintenance Plate 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m prepared to give Villa Splendido another chance. She is much better than what she produced at Flemington. In saying that, she never really had a clear run throughout. Drops in class and strikes a lovely race to bounce back into form.
Don’t Back Me: Happy to put a line through Zoria. I thought she was disappointing last week behind Cavalry Rose and I can’t see her improving enough to be in the finish here.
Big Danger: A Time For Julia absolutely spanked them on debut at Kilmore before stepping immediately to city class and running a huge race to only go down by a half length. She looks as if she’ll get a cosy lead and at Caulfield, that’s a big advantage.
Roughie: Thunder Rain did all the work in the second half of her race last start yet found plenty under pressure to record a nice win in a city class race at Mornington. She has always shown ability and looks a definite rough hope.
$500 Villa Splendido Free Bet
Race Two: D’Urban Gothic Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of Daytona Grey. Loved his win at Moonee Valley because he did all the work sitting wide with no cover throughout yet cruised up on the home turn, kicking hard and clinging on for a very game win. I have no problems with him running 1400m, provided he gets cover this time. If he gets that, he’ll go very close.
Don’t Back Me: I have big concerns about the form surrounding the race that Pronto Pronto won. He had a picnic in front and every right to win, which he did. Horses like Limes and Crystal Web had their chance to beat him, but didn’t.
Big Danger: Magnier had a soft lead and did everything right to record a comfortable kill at Ballarat. He is another horse who has shown talent and he has found a good race here. He is another that should love the 1400m and be hard to beat.
Roughie: Divine Moon was scratched from an easier race on Wednesday for this. He ran absolute belter last start in the Stan Fox behind Kabayan, who goes around in the Norman Robinson. Respect the fact that Bart has sent him to Melbourne because he does appear to be the ideal horse to win a race like the Sandown Guineas.
$500 Daytona Grey Free Bet
Race Three: Norman Robinson Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: One of the best editions of the Norman Robinson assembled for a long time. Sticking with Gai and Nash to combine with Kabayan. He should have won the McNeil, then wasn’t ridden the best by Nash in the Golden Rose. But he made amends with a peach of a ride to win the Stan Fox. The best part was the fact he was very strong at the end, so 2000m is no issue here. He looks to be one of the main dangers to It’s A Dundeel for the Derby and he should go very close here.
Don’t Back Me: Hvasstan was held on the line by Philippi last start at Flemington and he can’t turn the tables here. That is the best form in regards to the Melbourne gallopers, so that rules out Jimando, Subiaso and Costa Nova.
Big Danger: Honorius has the form on the board behind It’s A Dundeel and Proisir. If he gets a clear run, he could swamp these and outgun them late, but I suspect he is looking for 2500m. In saying that, he’ll be right in contention.
Roughie: One horse that finished behind Philippi was Right To Roam. I still consider him a chance because he was ridden upside down there. He is better ridden out the back and from the barrier, he’ll do that. A must for exotics.
$500 Kabayan Free Bet
Race Four: NZ Bloodstock Ethereal Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: It looks to be a three horse race between Cameo, Summerbliss and Zuccotto. Leaning towards Summerbliss because she was huge on debut at Ballarat where she sat all the wide yet drew away to win comfortably. Definite Oaks contender for Mick Kent and she’ll go close here in a race that is very weak if you take out those three.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the three main picks. They are the clear standouts.
Big Danger: Cameo was held up early, but when out, she let down nicely for fourth in the Edward Manifold behind Maybe Discreet. Her two wins in New South Wales prior to that run were very good and she warrants some consideration.
Roughie: Transonic is getting better with racing and has won her last couple of starts in impressive fashion. She can sit on the pace and give some cheek at odds.
$500 Summerbliss Free Bet
Race Five: Sportingbet Moonga Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: The each-way bet of the day is without doubt Whateverwhenever. I had something on her last week…and I am still having nightmares because she just did not get out at all. Very stiff not to have beaten Instinction last Saturday and gets her chance to make amends for connections.
Don’t Back Me: Bit surprised to see Full Of Spirit come up second favourite. Beat nothing when resuming at Ellerslie, then went to the Blazer behind Mosheen. She was a bit unlucky, but she could have done a bit more to warrant her being a contender in this race.
Big Danger: King’s Rose was excellent in the Gilgai after a failed campaign in Hong Kong. She travelled well and burst through at the 300m, but Hallowell Belle packed too many punches and held on. King’s Rose is a classy mare and will prove hard to beat here.
Roughie: Galah was enormous in the Gilgai as well. He never really got a clear crack at them in the run. If he did, he certainly would have gone close to the winning. The other roughie is Strike The Stars. He didn’t have things go his way in the Sir Rupert Clarke and he can certainly improve here.
$500 Whateverwhenever Free Bet
Race Six: Perri Cutten Caulfield Sprint 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: In a tough race to sort out, I’ll stick with Howmuchdoyouloveme. He was quite simply outstanding last campaign, with three wins from as many starts, culminating with a thumping disposal of his rivals in the Ramornie at Grafton. Hasn’t been seen at the trials, so fitness is a question mark, but he has the sheer talent to overcome that.
Don’t Back Me: The track will be too firm for Mid Summer Music. Cancel her as a chance.
Big Danger: Thankgodyou’rehere made his debut for Peter Morgan in the Moir and he produced a cracking run. Sat wide all the way and was still there with 50m to go. He’ll improve with that run under his belt and is a definite threat.
Roughie: Green Birdie was getting home better than anything else in the Moir. He hasn’t done much since coming here from Hong Kong, but he isn’t far away from winning I feel.
$500 Howmuchdoyouloveme Free Bet
Race Seven: David Jones Cup 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to declare Bagman a special. Very impressive in two wins, in the Balaklava Cup and the Tokyo City Cup respectably. He then contested the Cranbourne Cup last weekend and he just had no luck from the wide barrier. For him to finish fifth was huge. He has drawn much better and at the $7.50, he looks great value.
Don’t Back Me: Lightinthenite at 2000m? No thanks. Yes, he ran a belter in the Epsom, but he is not a 2000m horse and he only races best during his first and second runs in a campaign. He tends to fade away after that.
Big Danger: Waterford Hill had no luck at all at Moonee Valley last start. He got well back on the fence and was never a winning hope after that. He got out, but then hit the rail, losing all momentum. He did quite well to finish fifth under the circumstances. He looks well suited in this race and can improve big time.
Roughie: Extra Zero hasn’t been bad in two runs this time in. Did a bit too much work last start but still toughed it out alright for fifth. He gets out to a suitable trip and Nick Hall is riding in sensational form.
$500 Bagman Free Bet
Race Eight: Bmw Caulfield Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: I have been banging on and on about Secret Admirer and how she is a non-winner…but I think she is in with a ripping chance here based on her cracking performance in the Epsom. She had no luck until the final 200m, then she let down hard, suggesting that the 2400m will suit her down to the ground. Her only two runs at 2000m and beyond was the Cox Plate last year where she was the run of the race and the Queen Elizabeth, where she was the only horse to make up ground on More Joyous. She looks great value at $26.
Don’t Back Me: Lights Of Heaven looks the big unders at $10. Yes, she finished third behind Lamasery and Mourayan, but she had a very soft run off the speed and was entitled to be in the placings. The Caulfield Cup is a different kettle of fish.
Big Danger: I am a huge wrap for Glencadam Gold, but the barrier makes it awfully hard. In saying that, he is one of only two noted front runners in the race, so if he jumps cleanly, he should overcome that. And Jimmy Cassidy knows how to get them home in the big races. December Draw has been the forgotten horse. His last two runs have been fantastic leading up to this and looks primed to run a huge race. And all the work from Werribee has been about Dunaden and how good he is going.
Roughie: Zabeelionaire will be better suited at Flemington, but he could run a cheeky race from the inside barrier. He’ll do no work, has no weight…could be the blowout horse at big odds.
$500 Secret Admirer Free Bet
Race NIne: Yellowglen Tristarc Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a good race. Sticking with Mosheen because she needed a confidence boost and she got that in the Blazer, aided by a brilliant ride from Nick Hall. She is the class factor here and will prove hard to beat again.
Don’t Back Me: The horses that were beaten in the Blazer won’t turn the tables here. That rules out Raspberries, Hi Belle, Miss Stellabelle and Soft Sand. Mosheen has them covered again I feel.
Big Danger: Red Tracer and Streama come out of the Premiere at Randwick, where the former won impressively. She is a very good fresh horse and is adaptable on all conditions. Streama is working back to fitness and her run behind Red Tracer wasn’t too bad, but she is definitely looking for further ground. Is 1400m enough? Probably not, but she’ll still find the line well.
Roughie: The sneaky chance is New Beginning. Has definitely improved a few lengths since joining John Thompson and ran a beauty of a race in the Tibbie during the Newcastle Carnival when finishing second to Nocturnelle. That mare came out and won last week so the form stands up well and she has the right barrier to use her powerful finishing burst.
$500 Mosheen Free Bet
Race Ten: Carlton Draught Allinghi Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: I like Mrs Onassis as a racehorse and she has put it all together this campaign. Won the Starlight before bumping into Tiger Tees in the Concorde. She then was sent to Caulfield for a heat of the Sportingbet Sprint Series and was a surprise leader. She travelled beautifully throughout and found a good kick, but found Detours and Classy Chloe a touch too strong. Dropping back 100m and a sit just off the speed will really suit this mare.
Don’t Back Me: Serene Star helped us get out on top last week with a great win thanks to a great ride. Not sure if she can do it two times in a week. But she’ll still run well.
Big Danger: The boom surrounding Lady Melksham was huge after her win in the Cockram, then it burst in the Let’s Elope where she was forced to race wide all the way. Has since been freshened, drawn well, nice race for her and Bossy sticks.
Roughie: Nothing wrong with Follonica and her win at Moonee Valley. Carried the 60kg first up with no difficulty and got up on the line for a good win. The problem is she may race flat second up, but it’s hard to ignore that effor
