Moonee Valley is where feature racing in Melbourne takes place this Saturday with another strong nine race card, highlighted by the $120,000 Listed Essendon Mazda McKenzie Stakes (1200m). This race is usually saved for the lesser class three year olds, but this years edition promises to be an intriguing one, with the key runner being the unbeaten gelding from the Mike Moroney stable, Merion.

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Race One (12:30pm) : Simpson Construction Plate 1200m:

Back Me: Cool Hero trialled sharply prior to her dominant debut win at Morphettville Parks, although the form was suspect, so when she came here to race three weeks ago, punters were a touch concerned. But the smart punters put their money on and it almost came off, but it was a messy race and she got carted very wide on the turn, which probably cost her victory. Having that experience around here already is vital, and she looks a promising type
Big Danger: Afleet Esprit confirmed that her narrow maiden win first up on the Geelong Synthetic was no fluke when she ran a cracking second to Down The Hatch over 1000m here, the same race Cool Hero ran third in. She does get a kilo weight pull on Cool Hero, the barrier advantage and Olly has chosen to ride this filly over Cool Hero so there are plenty of factors to suggest she’ll go close.
Roughie: Tahni Dancer is the interesting runner here. She showed a bit of promise during the Autumn in two runs, firstly running a closing sixth to Nayeli in the Chairmans at Caulfield before finishing seventh to Clifton Red at Flemington, beaten just over four lengths. She is still a maiden, but she proved in that opening prep that she can be competitive at this level and a touch higher. Look for her to get out the back and charge late.

Race Two (1:00pm) : SAJ Fruit Supply Handicap (90) 2040m:

Back Me: Count Encosta just took a stride too long to wind up when racing here two back and just failing to pick up Digitalism before backing up seven days later and going to Flemington where he was no match for the much improved Moody statyer Kenjorwood. He does find a good race here, proven at the track and looks the clear horse to beat for mine.
Big Danger: I’m prepared to forgive the failure of Wrotham Heath at Flemington a fortnight back when fifth to Zevada. That was his first run since mid June and he did a power of work to find the lead, then copped immense pressure in front. He kicked until the 300m mark but just tired late. He will have to do some work again to lead given he is immediately drawn outside Voila Ici, and the likes of Vintage Lad and Tycoon Rob drawn to his outside, so he is a risk in that aspect, but his form prior was too strong to dismiss.
Roughie: Vintage Lad goes in as the third pick off the back of his strong on pace win at Sportingbet Park two back, then just failing to fend off Bagman at this track/distance three weeks back, and that form has been franked with that horse winning last weekend. He went to the trials on Tuesday and looked very good there, not being asked to do too much in running fourth of ten. He is rock hard fit, he’ll be up on the speed and he’ll keep chipping away.

Race Three (1:35pm) : Jeep Don’t Hold Back Handicap (90) 1200m:

Back Me: Good race and sure to be a hot form reference. Solsay is a little beauty who doesn’t really know how to run a bad race, especially here at the Valley, and it’s here where he resumed three weeks back, running a narrow second to Our Nkwazi in a real messy open handicap, where the leaders went bonkers in front and set it up for the backmarkers. Solsay loomed to win between runners, but it was just the bob of the head and perhaps fitness that beat him. Very good horse here, second up and at 1200m.
Big Danger: Trust In A Gust is another ripper and certainly one I’d love to have a share in. He was up for a hell of a long time during the Summer/Autumn but never ran a bad race and has earned over $600,000 for his large group of connections. He is so versatile as to his best distance and to how he is ridden. He is pretty much bombproof, so he has to go in as a threat.
Roughie: Well if you backed Academy Jack here three weeks, apologies for bringing up a horrendous nightmare…he really should have bolted in, but never ever got out of first gear and was just held up behind runners and never got a crack at them when fourth to Under The Louvre. The second horse from that race, Hard Stride, bolted in at stakes level last Saturday so the form reads very well, all he needs is an ounce of luck.

Race Four (2:10pm) : Chandler Macleod Handicap (78) 1600m:

Back Me: The miracle worker, Darren Weir, was at it again a fortnight back when new stable acquisition Aliyana produced a brilliant finishing burst between runners to win at her first start for Victoria’s premier trainer. She was a real pest to follow when with Team Cummings, similar to that of Count Encosta before Weir took over and produced that horse to win his opening two runs under his care. I’m confident Aliyana can continue that trend given she appears to have plenty of upside.
Big Danger: Warwarwick surprised many with her come from behind win here at this distance two back before stepping up to the Flemington 2000m and not having a great deal of luck behind Reckless Assassin (winner since) in an apprentices race. She pulled up lame from that race and has been given a few weeks to get over that outing. Back to the Valley mile suits and strikes a very winnable race provided she holds her form.
Roughie: Nisos resumes here after a solid Summer/Autumn campaign, with the highlight being a win here over 2040m back in late January. His best form is over further, and is not really a noted first up performer, but he looked quite forward in a recent barrier trial placing at Cranbourne. 1600m fresh is a good indicator that he is relatively forward and could run a cheeky race here.

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Race Five (2:45pm) : Dr Sheahan Plate (90) 1200m:

Back Me: The new Hayes/Dabernig training partnership has been lethal in winning since starting up and I’m confident they can get another one here courtesy of promising mare Girl Guide. She kicked off her career back in February, and was quite impressive in winning at Bendigo before steadily going through her grades and ending up at stakes level, where she was more than satisfactory when third to Miss Steele in the Proud Miss at Morphettville. Miss Steele is a very good mare, so that form does read well for a 90 race, and Girl Guide did look very sharp in a recent jumpout performance at Flemington. Clearly the best mare in the race and should just about take care of these.
Big Danger: Former Adelaide mare Splash of Moet made her debut for the Moody stable at Flemington a fortnight back and looked to travel well in the run, but her fitness just gave out late and she weakened to run fourth to the above average Couldn’t Agreemore. She didn’t pull up 100% after the run and rider Ben Melham stated that the mare would be better suited over more ground, which she gets here, and is beautifully in at the weights after the claim for the form apprentice in Victoria, Regan Bayliss.
Roughie: Benenden has been off the scene for nearly 12 months, but when she is right, she is a stakes class mare. She only had the three runs during the Spring last year, running second in her opening two runs before a desperately unlucky fourth on Geelong Cup Day in a strong mares race. Recent jumpouts have been good, and she gets in really well at the weights when you consider her past form.

Race Six (3:25pm) : Essendon Mazda McKenzie Stakes 1200m:

Back Me: Merion is the interesting runner here. He put together two very good wins towards the end of the Autumn, including a win in the Listed Anzac Day Stakes (1410m) at Flemington. Both wins he settled midfield and attacked the line, so 1200m here against a handy a bunch of three year olds will make things difficult for him to win, and his jumpout was solid enough without being great. But one thing he does have is raw ability and so much scope, so if he is close enough on the turn, he is good enough to blow them away. I’ve also noticed he has been nominated for all the good races, including the Cox Plate, so the stable must have a big rap on him.
Big Danger: Orujo showed good promise during the Autumn, with placings in the Talindert and St Albans, both at stakes level, with a dominant Bendigo maiden win sandwiched in between. He resumed three weeks back at Sportingbet Park and looked very impressive in winning, coming from just off the speed and letting down powerfully in the straight. The barrier does make things a touch tricky, but he is a horse who is normally ridden off the pace. The barrier means he probably will have to slot in one or two pairs back further than what Nick Hall would like. Still, he has a booming finish and should be out of trouble.
Roughie: I’m keeping a very close eye on this Moody gelding, Caveka. He has only had the one start, a couple of weeks back on the Geelong Synthetic and spanked his rivals by nearly four lengths and wasn’t far away from the track record. I don’t care where and when, if a first starter can close to breaking a track record, they must have talent, so from the good draw, I’m keen to see how he steps up against some quality boys.

Race Seven (4:00pm) : ADAPT Australia Handicap (96) 2500m:

Back Me: Hippopus for me in what looks to be a tough race. He resumed over 2040m here three weeks back and was quite game in defeat, running third to Bagman, beaten a length. That horse won last Saturday at Caulfield so the form does read well, and the second horse, Vintage Lad, goes around earlier in the day and looks a leading chance. He should ping straight to the front, roll along and take a power of beating, especially with the rail out.
Big Danger: Putting Zabeelionaire over the sticks both in work and in trials has really turned his form around and is now threatening to win a race. There was plenty of merit in his last start effort here when second to Backbone, who looks as if he’ll pick up a nice race during the Spring. He was taking ground off that horse late despite wanting to lay in, so dropping a touch in weight and a good draw…he gets every chance.
Roughie: The quick back up and rise to 2500m could spark improvement from De Fine Lago. He has been so so in three runs back from a 12 month break, but prior to his run last week, he did trial very nicely at Cranbourne, winning by a handsome margin. Saves his best for the Valley, so keep an eye on the market.

Race Eight (4:40pm) : 1PRINT Carlyon Stakes 1000m:

Back Me: I think one of the two Group l mares, Villa Verde and Shamal Wind, will win this. Slightly leaning towards Shamal Wind however. I loved the way she went about it in the Autumn, winning the Adams Stakes before running a strong seventh to Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate. She then was freshened up and won down the straight at Flemington before running a cracking fifth to Platelet in the Robert Sangster. Trial was fantastic leading up to this and she is a winner at the track, as well as being unbeaten fresh.
Big Danger: Villa Verde stunned most with her strong Autumn campaign for Anthony Cummings, especially after her first up win in the Challenge, beating home the likes of Snitzerland and Buffering before placing in the Galaxy and then running midfield in the TJ Smith. Looked sharp in a recent trial behind Sarajevo, but the key factors against her are that she draws wide, firm track and first time at the Valley. She’ll go close, but I favour the other mare just.
Roughie: Angelic Light took the leap to Group l company at the end of her campaign in the Autumn and almost saluted, but couldn’t quite hold off the finishing burst of bonny mare Platelet. Her two trials to prepare for this have been fantastic, she is near unbeatable at the Valley, flies fresh and handles all conditions. Knockout hope.

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Race Nine (5:15pm) : Sportingbet Handicap 1500m

Back Me: I’m pretty keen on Foundry in the lucky last. He showed what a good horse he is and will be in the Autumn in two runs. He made his Australian debut at Flemington over 1400m and savaged the line late to get up before stepping up to the Blamey Stakes and just failing to pick up Lidari, who dominated from the front. He has been touted as a Cups horse, so while there is improvement left in him no doubt, his class and sheer ability might be enough to beat these.
Big Danger: Blackie returned to some sort of form last time over the mile here when fifth to tearaway winner The Cleaner, who was engaged in a speed duel with First Course and proved too good. The blinkers go back on, draws well, loves the track…it’s just about D-Day for him I think. He needs to show something.
Roughie: Text ‘N’ Hurley is on the Caulfield Cup path and while she probably lacks the class to be a force in the great race, she certainly showed she has come back in ripping order with a slashing seventh in the Aurie’s Star to Tiger Tees. Unbeaten from two runs at the track, placed in both second up runs, drawn well and only carries 54kg. Great chance for mine at odds.

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Best Bet: Race Five Number 3 Girl Guide

Next Best: Race Nine Number 2 Foundry

Best Roughie: Race Four Number 9 Aliyana

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8

Leg Three: 2, 3, 10, 11, 12, 13

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13

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