There’s no doubt in my mind that Erewhon, even off a five-week break, is the best-weighted runner at Warwick Farm tomorrow in the feature Listed Winter Challenge!
Don’t be concerned by the gap between runs. He’s a Group 1 winner up to 2000m, and has always shown a liking for his runs being spaced. He’s two from four this track, and three from five at the mile, but the weight placement is the key to loading up. He carried 58.5kgs winning a BM90 last start at Warwick farm and probably hit the front a little early. But up to Listed level, he gets in with just 55kgs from a good draw, so as a greater crooner once said ..”Play it again Sam!”
Erewhon’s one of several high class runners across a competitive eight-race card on a track rated slow, but could well be “dead” by the time we get underway. And that ratin g and track condition will be vital for many inexperienced two and three-year-olds on show early.
At Caulfield in Melbourne, black-type racing is on show, with the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) the highlight. Already, former top Hong Kong sprinter Green Birdie has been heavily supported on Luxbet, although the consistent Zamorar, first-up Flemington plunge winner Ready To Rip, and even the fresh rising seven-year-old Eagle Falls will all come in for a support in a very competitive betting race.
One horse I’m very confident about, even with another change of rider, is Giresun in the last. He closed strongly to just miss at Caulfield over this trip in heavy ground last start, but looks an even better bet on firmer ground, especially under the vigour and guile of Chris Symons. Don’t be worried by the wide gate, it might be the place to be late in the day, and Symons is one rider who can lift a horses when it matters!
Here’ s a snap-shot of how I see Saturday unfolding:
BLETCHINGLY STAKES TIP: READY TO RIP: Landed big plunge first-up despite not being comfortable first time down the Flemington straight. Much better suited here around the bend where he can sit back off a good speed and swoop down the middle. Very good second-up at this trip.
BEST BET: EREWHON: (Warwick Farm R6): Don’t be concerned by the five weeks between runs. High class galloper who, despite hitting the front a little early, won this track and trip last start under 58.5kgs, and gets in beautifully here with just 55kgs from a good “cover” draw.
VALUE BET: HOUSTON BENEFACTOR: (Warwick Farm R5): Form looks average on paper, but she hasn’t had a lot of luck lately in the running. Step up to 1400m, improving track, inside gate and drop in weight all factors to say she’ll run a mighty race at ridiculously big odds.
BEST LAY: BELLO: (Warwick Farm R7): Around the mark of late, but just not going well enough to win a good Winter BM85 race from a wide gate. Prefer others all day long.
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: GREEN BIRDIE (Caulfield R6): Has been heavily backed from opening $5.00 into $3.20 after his big first-up run here in the Sir John Monash in unsuitable heavy ground a fortnight back. Former top Hong Kong sprinter at his best on firmer ground at 1200m.
BRISBANE BONANZA
R1 No. 3: DUSTY GOLD: Has had little or no luck last few runs when struck trouble every time. Change of rider is a key and at his best at the mile! Price: Approx $5.00 My Rating: $3.25
R5 No. 1: BRADBURY CHOCOLATE: Strung three together, and terrific effort coming from the back last start in heavy ground. Even better suited here on improving surface from a good d raw with form jockey’s claim. Outstanding bet! Price: Approx: $2.60 My Rating: $1.90
WINNER IN THE WEST
R7: Listed Beaufine Stakes: No. 3 LATORIA
