2012 Sydney Cup day expert tips and analysis

All Aged Stakes – Atlantic Jewel is a super filly who treated her rivals with disdain last start in the Saphire Stakes, she’s unbeaten in 6 starts and is nearly Black Caviar odds here. She takes on male horses for the first time in this Group 1 race but is a super talent. Rain Affair will be the filly’s hardest opponent and the tough Sydney sprinter always puts up a great fight.

Sydney Cup – Drunken Sailor was nabbed late in the Adelaide Cup when carrying 59.5 kg after taking off early and last start ran a great race when third in the BMW behind top notchers Manighar and Americain. That form looks good enough to win here. Permit is a deserved favourite and has been in great form and gets in light with only 53.5 kg. His previous runs suggest h e’ll run out the 2 miles.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes – This looks to be one of the best races of the Autumn and you can’t go past Manighar, he’s been in career best form this preparation with 3 Group 1 wins and although taking on a crack field looks the one to beat. Americain has had two luckless runs this prep and has been running on well, although the step back to 2000 isn’t ideal.

With four Group 1 races at Randwick, there are four opportunities to take advantage of the Luxbet Autumn promotion. Back the winner and get a Bonus Bet of up to $100. De Luca runs his eyes over where best to put your bonus:

Sydney Cup Tip – #2 Drunken Sailor. Was nabbed late in the Adelaide Cup under 59.5kg when Damien Oliver took off early and he ran a great race last start in the BMW behind Manighar and Americain, that looks good enough f or this.

Best Bet – Randwick Race 4 # 1 Miss Keepsake. Last start she finished second to More Joyous in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf and that form looks to be too good for this field. The old adage says back a mare in form.

Best Value – Randwick Race 8 #4 Pinwheel. Looked to be unlucky in the Sebring Stakes when squeezed up, is the class runner of the field and McEvoy should get a good run here.

Lay – Randwick Race 7 #7 More Joyous. The super mare has been in great touch but is skinny odds here against top stayers Manighar and Americain and is a query at the 2000m.

Best Backed – Eagle Farm Race 7 # 14 Pretty Pins. The Patinack runner has been the subject of strong support from the moment the market went up. Her run last start was better than the form guide suggests.

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