2012 Le Tour de France (outsiders) Preview.
The biggest race in cycling, for the 99th edition, will feature 1 prologue, 20 stages, and will cover a total distance of some 3,497 kms. Last year, the reigning champion, Australia’s Cadel Evans, started the race at 50/1. This year he vies for favouratism against in-form British rider, Bradley Wiggins. With these two riders at almost prohibitive prices and the likelihood that this race always sees some unforeseen equation enter calculations, I thought I might do something different with this Preview, by excluding all the known information about the two favourites (and thus excluding the need for a coin toss in assessing the chances between them), and instead find a handful of riders at much better odds who might offer some interest and intrigue, over the three weeks of riding, with some of our loose change.
C Froome 26.00
Recently, 4th on GC in the Criterium du Dauphine. Impressed when finishing 2nd on GC in the Vuelta, last year, where he showed his superior climbing skills to that of team-mate Wiggins, and where he essentially worked as his domestique. He is likely to receive the same orders here, however he is much better value in comparison, and if he has a good day in the mountains he may go on with it despite any team orders. Would not surprise with a top-10 performance. Watch closely.
F Schleck 34.00
Let’s not forget he finished 3rd on GC here, last year. Admittedly, he was going better than he is this year, however given his climbing credentials it may be a mistake to discount his chances. He was with Evans for most of the concluding Alps stages, and if this year’s race is run similarly than he only needs one strong day in the mountains to cover his time losses in the final ITT. 2nd on GC in the Tour de Suisse, recently. Must be respected as a legitimate EACH-WAY contender. Treat warily. Top bet.
S Sanchez 34.00
6th on GC, here, last year, also finishing 1st in the Mountains classification. Not to be discounted lightly. An improvement would not surprise. Consider.
R Hesjedal 41.00
1st in Giro d Italia, earlier this season. This will be a much tougher test, but holds excellent EACH-WAY value for a proven grand tour winner so far this season. Worthy of some consideration.
P Rolland 51.00
Made a statement here last year, when he finished 1st on Stage 19, and 1st in the Young rider classification, and on GC he finished 10th. Good EACH-WAY value. An improvement would not surprise. Consider closely.
A Valverde 51.00
1st in stage 5 of the Tour Down Under, up Old Willunga Hill, before finishing 2nd on GC. Then, 1st on GC in Vuelta a Andalucia; 3rd on GC in Paris-Nice; 2nd in Klasika Primavera; 22nd in Amstel Gold Race; and finally, 9th on GC in Tour de Suisse. Best finish here is 6th in 2007. Last start here, was in 2008 when finishing in 9th place. Looking forward to this race, and has indicated that a podium result is attainable. Getting old, but has the talent to get on the podium. Will be Movistar captain. Consider very closely for an EACH-WAY result. One of the main contenders.
JJ Cobo 126.00
Not much form to speak about this season so far, however he did finish 1st on GC in the Vuelta, last year. Withdrew from Criterium du Dauphine due to fatigue, however he is looking to find fitness throughout the duration of the race, and build on the confidence his team has in him. Also, taking into account that the Vuelta is regarded as a greater climbers’ test than the Tour, he presents as good EACH-WAY value should he show himself in the race as expected. Consider.
My selections:
1.) F. Schleck.
2.) A. Valverde.
3.) C. Froome.
Roughie:) JJ Cobo.
