2014 AFL Grand Final – Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks preview, tips, odds and betting

Saturday’s only AFL Grand Final match is between Sydney Swans and Hawthorn Hawks. The opening bounce is set to commence at 14:30 local time with the game to be played at MCG . The home team Sydney Swans are the favourites for the match. View our preview and teams for the game between Sydney Swans and Hawthorn Hawks.

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Round: Grand Final, Saturday September 27, 2.30pm AEST
Stadium: MCG
Weather: 19° Partly cloudy.

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Preview:

AFTER a thrilling and refreshing finals series, the two best teams of 2014 have worked their way through to a mouthwatering Grand Final. In a rematch of the 2012 decider, there will be one significant difference with Lance Franklin now residing in the Harbour City. The Swans are shooting for their third premiership in the past 10 years having played in four Grand Finals through that period. The Hawks, meanwhile, are aiming to win back-to-back premierships and their third flag since 2008. In contrasting preliminary finals, the Swans put North Melbourne to the sword and ran out 71-point victors, while the Hawks were tested by a surging Port Adelaide, holding on to win by three points. Both powerhouse teams this season, the Swans have been building ideally towards the Grand Final, winning 18 of their last 20 games. The Hawks have overcome hurdle after hurdle to reach the decider, but their ducks are starting to line up at the right time.
THIS YEAR
R8, 2014, Sydney Swans 15.17 (107) d Hawthorn 13.10 (88) at ANZ Stadium
In his first match against his former club, Lance Franklin played a decisive role in the Swans’ 19-point win at ANZ Stadium. The former Hawk booted seven straight behinds in the first three quarters, but he kicked two crucial goals in the last term as the Swans fought back to win. Hawthorn had been cut down by injury, with Sam Mitchell, Brian Lake and Luke Hodge, who was a late withdrawal, missing. Cyril Rioli also suffered a hamstring injury in the third quarter. Midfielder Dan Hannebery (40 possessions) was brilliant for the victors, while tall forward Kurt Tippett booted four goals in his first game for the season.R18 2014, Hawthorn 15.14 (104) d Sydney Swans 13.16 (94) at the MCG
The Hawks snapped the Swans’ 12-game winning streak, coming back from a 23-point deficit in the third quarter to win by 10 points. It was a gritty performance, full of perseverance and resilience in front of more than 72,000 fans. Jarryd Roughead booted four goals in his 200th game, opposed to Ted Richards, and at the other end star Swan Lance Franklin kicked 3.5 on good mate Josh Gibson. Jordan Lewis (35 possessions) and Sam Mitchell (32) were influential in the midfield for the Hawks.
PREVIOUS FIVE ENCOUNTERS
R18 2014, Hawthorn 15.14 (104) d Sydney Swans 13.16 (94) at the MCG
R8, 2014, Sydney Swans 15.17 (107) d Hawthorn 13.10 (88) at ANZ Stadium
QF, 2013, Hawthorn 15.15 (105) d Sydney Swans 7.9 (51) at the MCG
R23, 2013, Sydney Swans 16.4 (100) lost to Hawthorn 17.10 (112) at ANZ Stadium
R7, 2013, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Sydney Swans 12.10 (82) at the MCG
KEY MATCH-UPS
Lance Franklin v Josh Gibson
Franklin enters the Grand Final in imposing form after booting 5.2 against North Melbourne in the Swans’ preliminary final win. He has pushed up the ground to devastating effect in recent weeks, and Gibson is the Hawk most capable of going with him. The Hawks will bank on Gibson knowing some tricks picked up on the training track to shut down Franklin. They’ll also bank on a team defence that can help contain the dynamic Swan.Josh Kennedy v Sam Mitchell
They might not run with each other, but these two midfielders are crucial to their team’s chances. Both accomplished big-game performers, Mitchell and Kennedy will work at the coalface racking up contested ball and clearances. Whoever gets on top when the game is in the balance could prove the most valuable player on the ground.MEDICAL ROOM
Cyril Rioli played in the VFL Grand Final on Sunday and was pulled out after three quarters, seemingly having proved his fitness after 12 weeks sidelined with a hamstring injury.All Australian midfielder Jordan Lewis, meanwhile, suffered a corked calf in the Hawks’ win over Port Adelaide and has been icing it round the clock to ensure he is fit for the decider.

Tall forward Sam Reid was substituted at three-quarter time of the Swans’ preliminary final win over North Melbourne with knee soreness, but he will train on Thursday to prove his fitness. The Swans have no other injury concerns.

THE SIX POINTS

1. In two games against his former side, Swans star Lance Franklin has kicked a combined total of 5.12. He kicked seven consecutive behinds in the first three quarters of the sides’ round eight clash before kicking his first goal. Buddy has kicked 75.49 this season.

2. Hawthorn is ranked No.1 this season for total goals kicked with 397 at 16.5 per game. The Swans are ranked No.3 with 340 at 14.2 a game. In two finals this September, the Hawks average score is 100 points compared to the Swans’ 114.

3. The Swans and Hawthorn clash in a Grand Final for the second time in three seasons and their fourth final since 2011. The Swans won by 10 points in the 2012 decider, while in all finals the Hawks hold the advantage 4-2.

4. The Swans have taken the ball inside 50 this season an average of 56.8 times a game compared to Hawthorn’s 55 a game, but the Hawks average 12.6 marks inside 50 to the Swans’ 12.2.

5. The Swans have played in 15 Grand Finals for five premierships. Since moving to Sydney in 1982, they have played in four Grand Finals for two flags. Their last three have been decided by four, one and 10 points. Hawthorn has played in 17 Grand Finals for 11 premierships and will be aiming for back-to-back flags for only the second time in the club’s history (they won successive Grand Finals in 1988-89)

6. Swan Gary Rohan was the No.1 ranked player in the Official AFL Player Ratings across the two preliminary finals. The versatile speedster, who was used at both ends of the ground against the Kangaroos, has lifted his overall ranking from 599 overall to 412 ahead of the Grand Final.

News:

Sydney midfield star Josh Kennedy predicts fans and players will love an AFL grand final that looks full of fascinating sub plots and rivalries.

Kennedy is one of three former Hawks in the Swans side, along with Ben McGlynn and Lance Franklin, who by himself has probably generated a year’s worth of publicity in under a week.

Both teams boast a potent forward line, with Hawthorn’s league-leading offence pitted against Sydney’s competition-best defence.

“It’s going to be a great battle when you look over the whole field,” Kennedy told AAP.

“If we’re all playing to our strengths and at our best, it’s going to make for a huge contest and one that I think the fans will love but we (the players) will love as well.

“They have got a lot of great players that we have to try and keep under wraps.”

Hawthorn’s squad is expected to contain former Swan Matt Spangher.

He was at West Coast (2006), Sydney (2012) and Hawthorn (2013) when those clubs won flags, but he didn’t play in any of those grand finals.

Spangher is one of four Xavier College alumni likely to play on Saturday, along with Swans Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Ted Richards.

“I speak to him (Spangher) when I can,” Hannebery told AAP.

“We try and keep in contact, He’s a really good fella.

“We were pretty close, me and Spangher, when he was here (in Sydney).”

Another connection between opposing players links Sydney’s Dane Rampe and Hawthorn’s Will Langford.

Both of them were East Sydney Bulldogs juniors and each also played at different times for the University of New South Wales/Eastern Sydney Bulldogs in the Sydney AFL.

“I don’t remember him at all,” said Rampe, who is two years older than Langford.

“He was on a Hawthorn scholarship when he was under 15, so I was aware of the name, coming through.

“It’s obviously great to have another player from the (junior) club being represented in the AFL.”

The grand final matchup will again create an interesting dynamic in the Kennedy clan, which is part of Hawthorn royalty.

Josh’s grandfather John senior and father John junior both played for the Hawks.

Josh notched 13 games for Hawthorn before switching to Sydney prior to the 2010 season and played in their 2012 grand final win over Hawthorn.

He suggested most of his close family were now in the Swans camp, with John senior an exception.

“He certainly supports me, but deep down he wants Hawthorn to win,” Josh said.

“He wants me to play well, but he’s still a Hawthorn man through and through.”

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