One of the closest finals’ series in AFL history starts this weekend. It kicks off with an absolute thriller in the shape of Hawthorn and Collingwood…But that’s just the beginning. Here is my preview of week one of the 2012 AFL finals’ series.
Qualifying Final 1
Hawthorn (1) v Collingwood (4) at 7.50pm, MCG, Melbourne
If these two teams produce a repeat of their epic preliminary final last year, then we are set to see something very special. Collingwood have had a very good year on the field, despite all the dramas off it eg: Travis Cloke, Eddie and Mick’s little tiff, and key injuries such as Luke Ball. Nathan Buckley has done a super job in his first season.
The Hawks started the season as premiership favourites and after a few anxious moments, they are at the top of their game. A superb win against the Swans followed by a clinic against West Coast has them as favourites in this game. However, the mental scars from 12 months ago I think are still their with Hawthorn, which could be a factor if the game is tight late in the fourth quarter.
The key to the game is Travis Cloke. He has been horrible for most of the season, yet he somewhat got his mojo back when he bagged several goals against the Bombers last week. If he fires, then Collingwood go very close. However, when these two last played, Cloke was held to one goal and 10 disposals by young defender Ryan Schoenmakers.
Tip: Hawthorn by under 39.5 points at $2.20 looks very safe. This won’t be a blowout.
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Qualifying Final 2
Adelaide (2) v Sydney (3) at 3.45pm, AAMI Stadium, Adelaide
As most will know, I am a Swans man through and through, but gee I am very keen on Adelaide to win. Kudos to coach Brent Sanderson for getting a side to finish second after a horrible 2011 campaign. There has been talk that the Crows have had a favourable draw, lining up on more occasions againt the weaker sides. They have a 5-4 record against the other seven finalists. But over the past couple of weeks, they have looked impressive, albeit against Melbourne and Gold Coast. Their forward line, which includes Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett, is the best in the comp. And with the likes of Thompson and Dangerfield dominating the midfield, they are a serious team.
The Swans…For a majority of the season, they have been the benchmark. But over the last month, they have really lost their way. And their goal kicking woes are a major concern for coach John Longmire. Lewis Jetta has been out of form with the boot. 40+ goals for the year is nothing to sneeze at, but over the past month, he has only kicked the one goal. The return of Sam Reid is a possible advantage, but once again, the champion Adam Goodes will have to lead their way in order for the Swans to win.
Tip: Adelaide to win at $1.65. Head says the Crows, heart says the Swans. This game should be a ripper.
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Elimination final 1
Geelong (6) v Fremantle (7) at 7.45pm, MCG, Melbourne
Geelong have won three of the last five premierships. Fremantle have won two finals in their history. I think this’ll be a really good game. Geelong have come home with a wet sail, with important wins against the big guns like Adelaide, Hawthorn and a commanding victory against Sydney last week. That is largely thanks to Tom Hawkins, who after a slow start, has really turned the corner over the past couple of months and cannot miss a goal and a mark. If he continues his hot form, then Geelong will win.
Fremantle have been the real surprise packet in 2012 under Ross Lyon. Once upon a time, Fremantle had no idea on how to win outside of Perth, but they have got a 6-4 record when travelling this season, which is remarkable. The major negative is the loss of gun defender Luke McPharlin. They do have the talent to overcome that loss, but gee you’d like him in a side tackling their biggest game in several years.
Everything points to the Cats. Form, class, experience, patience and being familiar with the MCG…But it’s hard to ignore Fremantle and how well they are going. Geelong are $1.33 and Fremantle are at $3.35. That is wrong. I think it’s a 50/50 bet.
Tip: Fremantle with the 22.5 start at $1.90.
Elimination Final 2
West Coast (5) v North Melbourne (8) at 3.15pm, Pattersons Stadium, Perth
The safe bet of the weekend here in the shape of West Coast. Home final, big crowd behind them, in reasonably good form…Take the best price you can. Two months ago, the Eagles were one of the major players in premiership betting, but a horror injury run has forced them to lose six of their last 13. But recently, they have beaten Collingwood and Geelong at Pattersons, so that sort of form should get them home here.
Tha Kangaroos have done a wonderful job to get to the finals. But over the past few weeks, they haven’t played their best footy. They were ordinary against the Dockers at home, then went to Blacktown and didn’t really produce anything flash in beating a tired GWS outfit. However, when the Eagles and Kangaroos met earlier this year, it was a ding-dong struggle with the boys from Perth just prevailing. Have North Melbourne improved enough to win? I don’t think so.
