Warwick Stakes Tips – 2014

Trainer Chris Waller will be represented by more than half the field in this weekend’s Warwick Stakes, but he doesn’t have the favourite. Waller has six in the field of eleven and will be searching for, surprisingly, only his second Warwick Stakes victory after Metal Bender delivered him his first in 2010. Whilst Waller has obviously several leading chances, headed by Weary ($5.00), Royal Descent ($6.00) and Sacred Falls ($6.50), favourite for the race is the Team Hawkes prepared Messene ($4.60). Messene is by Lonhro, a horse John Hawkes also trained and together, they took out this race twice (2001 and 2002).

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1. BOBAN – J Lloyd (9) – SCRATCHED

Returned from a good break with an eye-catching fourth (3/4 length) in the G2 Missile Stakes (1200m) a fortnight ago. The now 5yo was slow away in the Missile and was last in the field of nine as they made the turn. He continued to angle out behind heels and to the centre of the track before hitting the line in a manner that would suggest the 1400m second up would be ideal. Unfortunately the recent poor weather in Sydney may prevent him from lining up here with his Trainer Chris Waller, hopping for at least a dead rating come Saturday.

Weary
Weary

 

2. SACRED FALLS – T Berry (5)

Returns to racing after a successful autumn campaign that saw him collect his second consecutive Doncaster Handicap and run second to It’s A Dundeel in the $4M G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Like his previous fresh runs, which have seen him finish well to claim fourth in both the G1 Canterbury Classic (1300m) and G3 Tramway Stakes (1400m), he has had couple of trials in readiness for his return. He’ll be giving them a start but he’ll be hitting the line hard and the predicted wet track conditions bring him right into calculations.

 

3. LASER HAWK – L Nolen (6)

Had three barrier trials leading into the G2 Missile Stakes (1200m) a fortnight ago, his first run in fifteen months. As expected the 2012 Rosehill Guineas winner found the opposition too slick over that distance but trainer Joe Pride would’ve been placed with his effort despite running second to last, finishing only 3.5 lengths from Sweet Idea. That run will do him the world of good as will the extra furlong however, likely to need and at least a mile before we see him ready to win.

 

4. TIGER TEES – G Schofield (10)

Put together a stellar campaign last time in, winning the G1 The Galaxy and running third to Hana’s Goal in the G1 All Aged Stakes. Joe Pride took his 7yo to Flemington for his return race a fortnight ago where he won the Aurie’s Star (1200m) by a head from Mr. Chard (who went around in Thursday’s Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury). It was a typically tough effort on the speed last time and connections will be hoping that the poor weather in Sydney continues as the son of Dubawi enjoys the conditions. Will shoot over from gate ten and be in this for a long way.

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5. HAWKSPUR – T Angland (6)

Failed to win a race during his autumn campaign but did claim third behind stable-mate Boban in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes and fourth in both the G1 Ranvet Stakes and Doncaster Handicap. He too returned from a winter spell in the G2 Missile Stakes and worked to the line nicely over the 1200m – a trip he hadn’t contested since his 2yo days. He’ll appreciate the 1400m and doesn’t mind the sting out of the track. His Chipping Norton placing made it three placings from four second-up runs and at double figure odds, would be a great each-way chance.

 

6. MESSENE – J McDonald (7)

Went from strength to strength last time in and claimed the G2 Ajax Stakes before running into the heavy track conditions when contesting the G1 Doncaster and finishing seventh. The Lonhro 6yo has continued to improve over his break judging by his head second to Sweet Idea when first up in the G2 Missile Stakes a fortnight ago. From the inside gate, he settled on the leader’s (Sweet Idea) back before trying to sneak home along the fence. Drawn a little more awkwardly this time though and whilst he’s won 4 from 6 on the Dead, yet to prove himself on worse than that. Two things to keep in mind when taking the current price.

 

7. MY KINGDOM OF FIFE – J Collett (1)

Showed very little in four runs during his autumn campaign, which was his first preparation in over two years. The G1 winner has had two trials in readiness for this return to racing here but the now ten year old has been well accounted for in both and that should be the case again on Saturday.

 

8. WEARY – B Avdulla (3)

Former import who in his first Australian preparation during the autumn, took all before him. He won the G3 Doncaster Prelude (1500m) third up before running third in the G1 Doncaster Handicap and rounding out his campaign by finishing second to Hana’s Goal in the G1 All Aged Stakes (1400m). Returned in the G2 Missile Stakes and settled three back in the running line. He just couldn’t quicken like the leaders, who had dominated the pace, as they straightened but was working home in encouraging fashion over the final furlong. Excellent hit-out for this race and a repeat performance of any of his autumn runs, three of which were on Slow/Heavy, would see him right in the finish here.

 

9. CRITERION – J Bowman (4)

The ATC Derby winner from last season returns to the racing and will take on the older horses for the first time. Trainer David Payne has given the son of Sebring a trial and given it was over a month ago now, would expect Criterion to be forward in condition here. Took a few runs to reach his peak last prep and would be happy to see first up, what he can produce in this company.

 

10. DISSIDENT – B Shinn (8)

Another one of last season’s leading three year olds also sired by Sebring, he returns to racing off a fourteen week spell for Trainer Peter Moody. Moody has sent his charge around in two barrier trails in the last month and he looked good in both. He has run second in each of his past two fresh runs, the Listed The Rosebud (behind Eurozone) and more recently to El Roca in the Eskimo Prince Stakes. Probably goes forward with Messene who is drawn on his immediate inside and whilst capable of running a bold race, would think he’ll be better for the run and for the experience against the older horses for the first time.

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11. ROYAL DESCENT – K McEvoy (2)

Although she hasn’t won since claiming the 2013 ATC Oaks as a 3yo, this Redoute’s Choice mare has been in fantastic form since and gone close on more than one occasion of registering her fifth career win. She looked a morale in the G1 Doncaster Handicap earlier in the year until stable-mate Sacred Falls snuck home along the fence and deserves to win another top grade race. She’ll return here from a fifteen week spell with two trial under her belt and unlike her preparation for previous returns, has finished close up in both, suggesting she’ll be ready to fire here. It takes a good mare to win this race though. Streama ran second to Veyron last year and the last female to claim the Warwick Stakes was Private Steer in 2014.

 

RACE OVERVIEW

Would expect that Messene, Dissident and Tiger Tees, who have drawn gates 7, 8 and 10 respectively, to come across and set the pace. In behind them Waller’s pair of Royal Descent and Weary – giving this pair every chance in the run. With the run under his belt, Weary looks hard to beat. Proved himself at this level last prep and on wet tracks. The three leaders are all capable of sticking on for the placings provided that they do not set a silly pace up front. Sacred Falls and Hawkspur to be the big finishes.

  1. WEARY
  2. ROYAL DESCENT
  3. MESSENE
  4. TIGER TEES
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